re: February 2019 Cold blast and southern snow discussion thread

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First look was at model soundings. Beginning around 10z, the MCB soundings show a 2-4 hour time frame when the dendritic zone is saturated while the entire column underneath that level will be below freezing. This should yield a quick change over from rain to all snow. Additional confidence booster is 1000-500mb thickness numbers. Typically need 540m or less and that line is all the way down to a Baton Rouge/Tylertown line, meaning points north of there looking prime in the mid levels of the atmosphere for snow development. Accumulations of around an inch or so seem plausible. Moving south to a line from around Baton Rouge to Slidell and the window of opportunity for freezing precip is considerably smaller. It looks like at that location, they may see an hour or 2 of sleet mixed in with flurries, but thats it.

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LIX Discussion this afternoon. It's basically saying where our 540 line sets up is key and based on the information at hand now, that's where they set up the winter advisories.

Now a peak at the GFS, Canadian, and new GFS concerning where the 540 line ends up. You're looking for the bottom most blue dotted line.

GFS:

Canadian:


New GFS:


All three have the winter advisories in an area miles north of where that line is. It sagging over BR for the Canadian and GFS is why they aren't nearly as concerned because it presents a very narrow window when the snow producing zone will be overhead. If it dips farther south like the new GFS shows, then BR and the Northshore will be in a good position for snow.

Basically that's the ballgame, now we're getting into the window of seeing what actually starts showing up.

So, Lafayette may get some action too?

EBR schools not even acknowledging the potential for snow. Be prepared to see lots of angry mothers

Just got a bot call from Central schools saying they will have school tomorrow since the temperature is supposed to be 50* at midnight and travel shouldn’t be an issue....

That’s the most unintelligent rationale imaginable.

When will the blizzard hit Old Metairie?

I'm going to be piss if it does snow here in Pointe Coupee. School is close tomorrow.


Do have enough firewood on the patio for a couple days.

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13 degree drop in an hour in n/w La

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Had a good winter here until about a week ago. Now, it's snowstorms with relatively mild temps followed by freezing arse temps for a few days. Looking at -35 wind chills Tuesday through Thursday. I just want to stay home.