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Explain the "flatten the curve" concept
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:24 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:24 pm
We've seen this chart ad nauseum,
Even the most diehard "Stay inside" fear mongerers accept this chart which implies that the total number of people who will get Covid19 will be the same, whether we install protective measures or not. Their big concern is to not overwhelm the hospitals all at once (like everyone showing up to eat at the same time).
Since we've not overwhelmed the hospitals, even in NYC, what's the continuing point of "with protective measures", if the pundits agree that the total number of cases will be the same?
Something seems flawed with this reasoning to their charts. Seems like to me, the total number of cases should be greatly reduced, not just flattening of the curve.
Even the most diehard "Stay inside" fear mongerers accept this chart which implies that the total number of people who will get Covid19 will be the same, whether we install protective measures or not. Their big concern is to not overwhelm the hospitals all at once (like everyone showing up to eat at the same time).
Since we've not overwhelmed the hospitals, even in NYC, what's the continuing point of "with protective measures", if the pundits agree that the total number of cases will be the same?
Something seems flawed with this reasoning to their charts. Seems like to me, the total number of cases should be greatly reduced, not just flattening of the curve.
21
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:27 pm to East Coast Band
Because logic would dictate that if you go back to business as usual you get another rapid spread that could lead to hospitals being overwhelmed.
Logic isn't always correct, but there's no real way to disprove or prove the idea.
Eta
And no you don't get significantly less cases with flattening the curve,.it just takes way more time for them to happen. The virus isn't going away, it's going to spread unless we completely lock everyone in their homes with no way to get out at all for months. Even then who really knows?
Logic isn't always correct, but there's no real way to disprove or prove the idea.
Eta
And no you don't get significantly less cases with flattening the curve,.it just takes way more time for them to happen. The virus isn't going away, it's going to spread unless we completely lock everyone in their homes with no way to get out at all for months. Even then who really knows?
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 8:30 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:28 pm to East Coast Band
I think the concept is we didn't overwhelm the hospitals because of protective measures
I do think that we may be setting ourselves up with a future problem by underwhelming the hospitals though. If as predicted a second wave hits in the winter that will coincide with flu season we'll wish we would have gotten more people infected now rather than then. Then we would really overwhelm the system if they're dealing with a second wave and the flu.
I do think that we may be setting ourselves up with a future problem by underwhelming the hospitals though. If as predicted a second wave hits in the winter that will coincide with flu season we'll wish we would have gotten more people infected now rather than then. Then we would really overwhelm the system if they're dealing with a second wave and the flu.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:33 pm to East Coast Band
hospital overwhelmed isnt even about vents alone.
ICU nurses, respiratory therapists, and dialysis nurses
CRRT machines and HD machines
amount of medications for sedation and analgesia
critical care physicians and fellows, residents to cover services, etc.
there's a lot of limiting factors
ICU nurses, respiratory therapists, and dialysis nurses
CRRT machines and HD machines
amount of medications for sedation and analgesia
critical care physicians and fellows, residents to cover services, etc.
there's a lot of limiting factors
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:35 pm to East Coast Band
We trade a quick influx of patients for a long, drawn out infection
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:36 pm to East Coast Band
basically it means to stay at home and continue to crush the economy for as long as possible in hopes of putting 100% of the blame on Donald Trump and taking the election in November with a dementia candidate.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:36 pm to East Coast Band
Flattening the curve is out
Now we are apparently waiting on zero new cases.
Now we are apparently waiting on zero new cases.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:38 pm to Mr.Perfect
We think we'll be able to lift the stay at home order by December 15.
-JBE 12/1/2020
-JBE 12/1/2020
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:42 pm to Hulkklogan
I'd rather overwhelm the hospitals than cripple the economy and put millions out of work.
This entire lockdown isn't worth the reason it was started in the first place.
This entire lockdown isn't worth the reason it was started in the first place.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:42 pm to East Coast Band
Somehow it morphed to stay inside so we can be done quicker... which is kind of the opposite.
I think a lot of people dont really understand the concept. The fastest way through is to push the curve as high as we can reasonably handle.
I think a lot of people dont really understand the concept. The fastest way through is to push the curve as high as we can reasonably handle.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:43 pm to upgrayedd
I wish someone at JBE’s presser would remind him. You asked us to flatten the curve and we did. Now you want to extend your control and ask us to wear masks. Since you won’t open your restrictions we won’t abide by any new ones.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:46 pm to ZIGG
quote:
basically it means to stay at home and continue to crush the economy for as long as possible in hopes of putting 100% of the blame on Donald Trump and taking the election in November with a dementia candidate.
MUH CONSPIRACY
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:52 pm to AlonsoWDC
quote:
MUH CONSPIRACY
muh reality
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:52 pm to East Coast Band
The idea is so entire hospital staff doesn't get sick at the same time and then your average we visit doesn't turn into a fiasco since the only people that have any idea how to fix a broken bone in Podunk Mississippi is sick AF.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 8:53 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:52 pm to dcrews
quote:
rather overwhelm the hospitals than cripple the economy and put millions out of work.
This entire lockdown isn't worth the reason it was started in the first place
It's not really an either/or scenario for the economic impact.
There's most definitely be a significant economic impact if the virus was spreading freely. People would be staying home of their own volition and spending less money.
Would be as bad? No probably not. But acting like we'd not see any economic impact even if we didn't lock down is disingenuous.
ETA
And allowing the hospitals systems to get overwhelmed is how you wind up like Italy with a 10% death rate. That most certainly would contribute further to economic impacts.
This post was edited on 4/24/20 at 8:54 pm
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:53 pm to illinitiger
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:54 pm to illinitiger
Extremely underrated cartoon that is very, very true.
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:54 pm to East Coast Band
PLus they're finding that so many people already have antibodies built up... likely from it being here in December/January..
and so many people were already asymptomatic as well...
and so many people were already asymptomatic as well...
Posted on 4/24/20 at 8:54 pm to Hulkklogan
Productivity would be next to nil. Companies acted immediately to get people remote. My employer went from being able to support 300 workers out of 5k to having 4k work remote in a matter of a few days. Had that not happened we'd have tons sick
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