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re: Explain the "flatten the curve" concept

Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:24 pm to
Posted by beachreb61
Long Beach, MS
Member since Nov 2009
1715 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:24 pm to
The people who know how to set bones in Podunk are all still willing and able. Unfortunately they have all been furloughed unless they are “ front line” for the new flu.
Posted by PiscesTiger
Concrete, WA
Member since Feb 2004
53696 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 10:24 pm to
quote:

Where do you live? Interestingly, in Dallas, the traditional Democrat and Republican both are the biggest proponents of opening things up. The moderates......and I'm talking about the county commissioners......the moderates on each side seem to be the ones voting for lockdown extensions.






That seems odd. The granola folks and the uber-Constitution folks are all about opening but some Dallas Romneys are prevailing? I haven't kept up much with east Texas in a while.
Posted by pleading the fifth
Member since Feb 2006
3991 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:09 pm to
Flattening the curve doesn’t change the area under the curve. I don’t understand how people don’t get that.
Posted by East Coast Band
Member since Nov 2010
67017 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:24 pm to
quote:

the area under the curve
= the number of people who get the virus. Correct?
So, if the "experts" agree to this mathematical curve as if its going to be a fact, then why are we continuing to flatten the curve so far under what we are worrying about then?
Again, my point is that it seems to be that there is a set number of people who will get this virus, either now or later.
Posted by pleading the fifth
Member since Feb 2006
3991 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

the number of people who get the virus. Correct?
So, if the "experts" agree to this mathematical curve as if its going to be a fact, then why are we continuing to flatten the curve so far under what we are worrying about then?
Again, my point is that it seems to be that there is a set number of people who will get this virus, either now or later.



That’s my point. You flatten the curve to prevent exceeding healthcare capacity where more people would needlessly die ala Italy and Spain. The numbers stay the same, just prolonged. Only a vaccine could solve that problem.
Posted by Zappas Stache
Utility Muffin Research Kitchen
Member since Apr 2009
43558 posts
Posted on 4/24/20 at 11:46 pm to
quote:

So, if the "experts" agree to this mathematical curve as if its going to be a fact,


It's a basic concept.

quote:

my point is that it seems to be that there is a set number of people who will get this virus, either now or later.


Ok....you understand the spine would be bad for health care capacity? Maybe i don't understand your point.
Posted by Icansee4miles
Trolling the Tickfaw
Member since Jan 2007
32333 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 12:12 am to
Flattening the curve is so three weeks ago. We’ve moved on to “limiting exposure”. Honor Choade plans on delaying restating the economy because he doesn’t care about the economy.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 12:15 am
Posted by HamzooReb
Utah
Member since Mar 2013
14047 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 12:52 am to
I wish we would have gone with the red part of the chart so we could have got this shite over with already. It's not worth sacrificing my luxuries for the unhealthy. frick them.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 3:36 am to
quote:

Since we've not overwhelmed the hospitals, even in NYC, what's the continuing point of "with protective measures",



There is literally no point at all.

In the absence of the healthcare system being stressed beyond its capacity and infected people dying due to lack of proper care, you save literally zero lives by "flattening the curve". The same number of people get infected, just over a longer period of time.

Most states never should have been locked down at all. My state is one of those, and we absolutely shouldn't be locked down no, but our governor is dogshit, so nobody has any focking clue.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 3:37 am to
quote:

Flattening the curve is out

Now we are apparently waiting on zero new cases.


Exactly. The goalposts clearly CLEARLY moved.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 3:42 am to
quote:

y'all are ignoring the need to delay the spikes in order to obtain resources and find an effective treatment schedule


Delay future spikes? Is that actually your answer? Did you have a straight face when typing that?

Because that's just fricking nonsense.
Posted by MidnightVibe
Member since Feb 2015
7896 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 3:45 am to
quote:

I wish we would have gone with the red part of the chart so we could have got this shite over with already. It's not worth sacrificing my luxuries for the unhealthy. frick them.



I supported a 21 day lockdown, which equals the maximum possible incubation period of 14 days plus a one-week stay in the hospital.

After that, it makes no sense whatsoever.
Posted by SoFla Tideroller
South Florida
Member since Apr 2010
41896 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 4:29 am to
quote:

basically it means to stay at home and continue to crush the economy for as long as possible in hopes of putting 100% of the blame on Donald Trump and taking the election in November with a dementia candidate.


This has been the sole aim of the Chinese Flu True Believers from the beginning. Nov 4th this will have mysteriously resolved itself.
Posted by cable
Member since Oct 2018
9735 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 4:32 am to
There are zero Covid 19 patients in the hospital in my town. Zero. City is still on lockdown and the hospital is a ghost town. It’s fricking absurd.
This post was edited on 4/25/20 at 4:33 am
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 4/25/20 at 10:52 am to
So you're telling me by not having a quarantine that we'd be at 32 million deaths versus 52k? Nah, not buying that.

quote:

But acting like we'd not see any economic impact even if we didn't lock down is disingenuous.


I didn't say we wouldn't. But the situation would be exponentially better than it is now.

52k deaths so far from this. Over 50% of those deaths are in New York and New Jersey. This lock down was not necessary. I don't care if the death rate would be 5 times what it currently is if we didn't have lock down. The negative economic impacts on the other 320 million people aren't worth it.
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