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Posted on 10/2/20 at 3:39 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:
How many of y'all can still recite the Greek alphabet you learned as a pledge?
After our “educational” sessions back at Bama I’d say it would take Alzheimer’s for me to forget the Greek alphabet haha.
Posted on 10/2/20 at 3:50 pm to tide06
Same. Light that match and go
Posted on 10/2/20 at 7:58 pm to tide06
I learned it completely hammered at 4am dying to sleep. Hazing works
Posted on 10/3/20 at 6:58 am to rds dc
Gamma making a run at hurricane status this morning but will probably come up short given how close it is getting to land.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 7:11 am to rds dc
00z Euro EPS look to all be too weak, this has been another bad performance by the Euro & Euro EPS
06z GEFS
00z UK Ensemble
06z GEFS
00z UK Ensemble
Posted on 10/3/20 at 7:12 am to rds dc
NHC up to 50% with the next wave
Posted on 10/3/20 at 7:36 am to rds dc
2020 just keeps giving. Thanks for your up dates. 
Posted on 10/3/20 at 7:48 am to rds dc
So which one do you think will be closer to what the storm does? What is steering it? Since it is stronger will it get picked up by front?
Posted on 10/3/20 at 7:55 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
So which one do you think will be closer to what the storm does? What is steering it? Since it is stronger will it get picked up by front?
The global models have struggled all season long, particularly longer range. HWRF and HMON have been much better with intensity, and to a lesser extent, track (again, particularly when it comes to long range modeling). That said, I haven't had the time to pay a whole lot of attention lately.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 8:04 am to Midtiger farm
quote:
So which one do you think will be closer to what the storm does? What is steering it? Since it is stronger will it get picked up by front?
The trough that brought our cold front will be lifting off to the NE over the next couple of days and a ridge (high pressure) will build in from the East over the top of the system. Models show the system weakening b/c of shear and dry air as the ridge builds in from the East. This will eventually send the system back to the SW and ,as of now, all models are in good agreement on this evolution.
We will need to watch this and future 92L next week as there are possibilities that one of these systems will threaten the US next weekend as a hurricane.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 9:25 am to rds dc
Gamma looks pretty healthy
Posted on 10/3/20 at 10:10 am to rds dc
The Euro keeps refusing to strengthen anything. Has made the EPS a little underdispersive most of the year as its been taking having a near hurricane over open water in-situ to have members have a appropriately strong system.
Glad Gamma didn't have more time over water, it's clear the powderkeg the WCab is at this point in the season.
Haven't exactly had time to dig into the long term steering, know the gist for Gamma but I figure the next one will have more options to be trouble.
Glad Gamma didn't have more time over water, it's clear the powderkeg the WCab is at this point in the season.
Haven't exactly had time to dig into the long term steering, know the gist for Gamma but I figure the next one will have more options to be trouble.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 10:46 am to LegendInMyMind
This has probably been the worst season I've ever seen for models. Even the Chinese Virus found a way to frick up computer models.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 1:25 pm to rds dc
That looks like a spicy meatball
Posted on 10/3/20 at 1:26 pm to The Boat
Mama mia
Posted on 10/3/20 at 1:39 pm to The Boat
Water near the northern Gulf is pretty cool at this point, putting a bland sauce on that meatball.
The run into the Yucatan Channel though...haven't checked the upper pattern to see if it's going to be sheary but that would be the spot to get our Cat 5 for the year if the upper pattern is agreeable.
You know, assuming it's not still a big disorganized mess by then.
The run into the Yucatan Channel though...haven't checked the upper pattern to see if it's going to be sheary but that would be the spot to get our Cat 5 for the year if the upper pattern is agreeable.
You know, assuming it's not still a big disorganized mess by then.
Posted on 10/3/20 at 2:02 pm to Duke
And SSTs in Northern Gulf gonna get even cooler with lows consistently in 50s-low 60s
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