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COVID, is it spreading slower or faster than testing?
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:08 pm
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:08 pm
I keep hearing cases are on the rise, but if testing is on the rise, then it doesn't necessarily mean that that the virus is spreading faster just that testing is spreading faster.
Like if we perform 100 test one day, and get 2 positives, and then do 1,000 tests the next day and get 10 positives. It's true that "cases have increased by 500% in a single day" but in actuality, the number of positives has dropped from 2% to 1% of those tested.
Maybe this is being accounted for, but I have only seen information regarding the number of positives increasing and not being shown as a percentage of new tests being positive.
Am I missing something?
Like if we perform 100 test one day, and get 2 positives, and then do 1,000 tests the next day and get 10 positives. It's true that "cases have increased by 500% in a single day" but in actuality, the number of positives has dropped from 2% to 1% of those tested.
Maybe this is being accounted for, but I have only seen information regarding the number of positives increasing and not being shown as a percentage of new tests being positive.
Am I missing something?
15
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:11 pm to Kujo
They are pushing the narrative they want with the statistics at hand.
This is why people complain about moving goalposts, because they switch to the statistics that helps their narrative at the time without even addressing the positive changes.
This is why people complain about moving goalposts, because they switch to the statistics that helps their narrative at the time without even addressing the positive changes.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:12 pm to Kujo
What you are looking for is easy to extrapolate from the data but one of the easiest ways to see changes is hospitalizations. It is not 100% but it gives a decent idea about the spread. The bottom line overall the cases are increasing even accounting for number of tests on the whole in the US but anyone that didn't expect that is rather stupid.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:12 pm to Kujo
The percent of tests that are positive are increasing every day.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:13 pm to HurricaneTiger
It’s a mixed bag based on location.
In some places percent positive is also going up.
But even that’s a few questions away from truly meaningful data
In some places percent positive is also going up.
But even that’s a few questions away from truly meaningful data
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:14 pm to Obtuse1
quote:
The bottom line overall the cases are increasing even accounting for number of tests on the whole in the US but anyone that didn't expect that is rather stupid.
Agreed. Though it seems people are baffled by the new cases like it wasn’t going to happen when we moved to phase 2.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:16 pm to AcetylCoA
quote:
The percent of tests that are positive are increasing every day.
GTFOH with your facts! Pres. Trump said it's only because there's been more tests that there are more cases, and he's a stable genius.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:17 pm to Kujo
Hopefully spreading faster so we can hurry up and get this shite over with
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:18 pm to Kujo
There’s a reason the media switched the Death Count ticker on the bottom of the screen to a Case Count ticker
I’ll let you decide why that is
I’ll let you decide why that is
This post was edited on 7/3/20 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:21 pm to AcetylCoA
I mean the increase in positives is somewhat debatable given that an enormous amount of people are being tested now compared to what were tested in the early stages of this thing. Plus now a lot people are required to be tested even when feeling totally fine bc of their job or other life situation.
Info from John Hopkins
Info from John Hopkins
This post was edited on 7/3/20 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:23 pm to Kujo
The virus isn’t doing anything different. Testing is more prevalent than it was a couple months. More people are being tested, that’s it. Plus testing in prison populations are being thrown in also making the numbers look worse
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:27 pm to Kujo
quote:
COVID, is it spreading slower or faster than testing?
What if I told you it’s spreading at the exact same speed as testing.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:33 pm to HamzooReb
Probable positives are being counted. One person tests POS. They ask where have you been and who have you been around. They put that number of people in as well. 1 test could count as 25 positives. This is happening.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:40 pm to Kujo
quote:
Am I missing something?
In a nutshell:
-Covid transmission is increasing (primarily through younger people and dumb people)
-Tests are getting closer to max capacity; thereby test sites are prioritizing testing only those people who most likely have it. This is driving the positive rates up across the country.
-In general, older/sickly people have taken the cue to socially isolate from this mess. It is now the younger and fearless people who are out getting and transmitting this disease to others.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:43 pm to Kujo
They are counting positive test not positive people. If a person test positive and a week later gets tested again and is still positive that person is counted twice. If said person had to get tested a 3rd time and is again positive that one person counts as 3.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:44 pm to Kujo
My wife works in a North Georgia hospital. Over the past 4 weeks, they have averaged 5-6 patients per day for Covid-19 related reasons
That was until last weekend. Monday, they were up to 19, today it is over 40.
Its rising. Not sure why but my guess would be because people are not doing what they are asked to do.
That was until last weekend. Monday, they were up to 19, today it is over 40.
Its rising. Not sure why but my guess would be because people are not doing what they are asked to do.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:44 pm to GoHoGsGo06
quote:
-In general, older/sickly people have taken the cue to socially isolate from this mess. It is now the younger and fearless people who are out getting and transmitting this disease to others.
In other words, kind of what we want to happen. Even though you describe the people is a condescending way.
At this point it is here and will be here for the foreseeable future. It is probably inevitable that you get it. Relying on a vaccine to save the day any time soon seems like a pipe dream. This virus disproportionately affects the elderly and generally unhealthy. Given how contagious it is, that is relatively good news.
All this vitriol we are having at each other really should be directed at China. This is all their fault. They allowed it to happen with the disease factory live markets and carelessness at their bio labs. They allowed it to spread by lying to the world about how contagious it was and that it could spread person to person at the same time allowing folks to leave their country and spread the disease to all parts of the world.
This post was edited on 7/3/20 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 7/3/20 at 12:51 pm to mxs1998
quote:
GTFOH with your facts! Pres. Trump said it's only because there's been more tests that there are more cases, and he's a stable genius.
Did you hide in your mother's basement when the Swine Flu was around ? I'll answer that for you, NO. You didn't give it a second thought b/c your overlords on the television didn't tell you to be scared. Not to mention the 'ONE' was in the White House. Now put your mask on and get under your bed Comrade !
Posted on 7/3/20 at 1:00 pm to Kujo
It’s just a weak virus that most have had already.
Posted on 7/3/20 at 1:17 pm to PorkSammich
Was t there a Stanford study that came out about 3-4 weeks ago (before this spike) that said that based upon anti body studies, the amount exposed was likely 80xs greater than thought based upon testing at that time? If that’s correct, wouldn’t that explain the so called “surge?” That it’s really not that much of a surge as young people had it in the thousands in March/April/May...they just were asymptomatic like the majority of those testing positive today and they didn’t check any of the boxes in the spring to warrant a test then.
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