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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:14 pm to tigerskin
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:14 pm to tigerskin
Despite incompetence at the CDC, despite President Trump’s delay in recognizing the significance of the problem, America has taken much action earlier in the cycle than European countries did. We are NOT going to become Italy or Spain.
Because testing rates vary (the more you test, the more positive you get), I think that comparing positive cases is pointless. The only metric that I believe is trustworthy when comparing the US to Italy and Spain is deaths. The day before announcing its "lockdown," Italy had 168 deaths from COVID-19, in a nation of 60 million people. The US had 49 deaths yesterday, in a nation of 327 million people. That means that, on the date of their lockdown, Italy’s death rate per capita from coronavirus was over 18 times as big as that of the US right now.
Spain had 63 deaths the day of their lockdown. Since the US population is seven times as big as Spain’s, their per capita deaths were nine times as great as what the US is seeing right now.
And both Spain and Italy didn’t do much to flatten the curve before they went into lockdown. Italy’s Serie A soccer league didn’t cancel the rest of their season until two days before the lockdown. A week before Spain’s lockdown, they had a march through Madrid that included 120,000 people, they had a soccer match in a stadium with over 60,000 fans, and they had a political rally with 9,000 people. In both countries, the "strategy" was simply to hope that telling people to be careful and wash their hands would be enough ... until it was too late.
That’s why the numbers for Spain and Italy continue to increase. It takes the average person about five days to develop symptoms, and then it’s about another week before most patients go into the ICU. Italy closed it shops and restaurants on March 11, so they are just now reaching their peak. It hasn’t helped that over 40,000 Italians have been charged with breaking those rules.
Because testing rates vary (the more you test, the more positive you get), I think that comparing positive cases is pointless. The only metric that I believe is trustworthy when comparing the US to Italy and Spain is deaths. The day before announcing its "lockdown," Italy had 168 deaths from COVID-19, in a nation of 60 million people. The US had 49 deaths yesterday, in a nation of 327 million people. That means that, on the date of their lockdown, Italy’s death rate per capita from coronavirus was over 18 times as big as that of the US right now.
Spain had 63 deaths the day of their lockdown. Since the US population is seven times as big as Spain’s, their per capita deaths were nine times as great as what the US is seeing right now.
And both Spain and Italy didn’t do much to flatten the curve before they went into lockdown. Italy’s Serie A soccer league didn’t cancel the rest of their season until two days before the lockdown. A week before Spain’s lockdown, they had a march through Madrid that included 120,000 people, they had a soccer match in a stadium with over 60,000 fans, and they had a political rally with 9,000 people. In both countries, the "strategy" was simply to hope that telling people to be careful and wash their hands would be enough ... until it was too late.
That’s why the numbers for Spain and Italy continue to increase. It takes the average person about five days to develop symptoms, and then it’s about another week before most patients go into the ICU. Italy closed it shops and restaurants on March 11, so they are just now reaching their peak. It hasn’t helped that over 40,000 Italians have been charged with breaking those rules.
1
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:20 pm to tigerskin
quote:
“Head of China’s Red Cross has just visited Milan, Italy. He was scathing about their version of a lockdown & said their shambles wasn’t fit to use the word lockdown. “
China getting mad because other countries are not locking people in their own homes and having the audacity to call it a "lockdown" Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:37 pm to Salmon
I can see that dude walking around there like WTF is this??....ha
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:43 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Despite incompetence at the CDC, despite President Trump’s delay in recognizing the significance of the problem, America has taken much action earlier in the cycle than European countries did. We are NOT going to become Italy or Spain.
Contradictory much?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:53 pm to ell_13
Ell, you may need to get your testicles checked
“Therefore, the team of Professor Li Yufeng from the Reproductive Medicine Center of Tongji Hospital reminded that: males infected with new coronary pneumonia should undergo fertility examination after rehabilitation.”
LINK
“Therefore, the team of Professor Li Yufeng from the Reproductive Medicine Center of Tongji Hospital reminded that: males infected with new coronary pneumonia should undergo fertility examination after rehabilitation.”
LINK
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:54 pm to tigerskin
I’ve already had them clipped, tigerskin. But thanks for lookin out.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 8:54 pm to ell_13
No problem. Covering all the bases
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:15 pm to lsu13lsu
SIAP:
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:30 pm to rds dc
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:37 pm to rds dc
So America went down to 0 recoveries?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:38 pm to fightin tigers
Not sure I’d believe anything about recoveries as some who are positive said they haven’t been contacted again.
Reportedly (here) 2 negative tests are required to be “recovered”. There’s likely nothing being regard to this.
Reportedly (here) 2 negative tests are required to be “recovered”. There’s likely nothing being regard to this.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:43 pm to tiger91
Which is concerning. It seems we are basing moves off total cases, or at least it seems to be the critical metric.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:47 pm to fightin tigers
They know the graph won’t be straight across on the y axis. Do want it to get out of the rocket take off look and more of a “flatter” look.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:48 pm to tigerskin
I mean, you can't ramp up testing and expect for the cases to remain the same.
I get it is selectively removing numbers, but if 24 death come from Lambeth House it would seem to skew the risk to the general public.
I get it is selectively removing numbers, but if 24 death come from Lambeth House it would seem to skew the risk to the general public.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 9:49 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:49 pm to ell_13
quote:
I spoke to a respiratory therapist there, whose job is to ensure that patients are breathing well. He works in a medium-sized city hospital’s intensive care unit. (We are withholding his name and employer, as he fears retaliation.) Before the virus came to New Orleans, his days were pretty relaxed, nebulizing patients with asthma, adjusting oxygen tubes that run through the nose or, in the most severe cases, setting up and managing ventilators. His patients were usually older, with chronic health conditions and bad lungs.
Since last week, he’s been running ventilators for the sickest COVID-19 patients. Many are relatively young, in their 40s and 50s, and have minimal, if any, preexisting conditions in their charts. He is overwhelmed, stunned by the manifestation of the infection, both its speed and intensity. The ICU where he works has essentially become a coronavirus unit. He estimates that his hospital has admitted dozens of confirmed or presumptive coronavirus patients. About a third have ended up on ventilators.
***
“I worked a long stretch of days last week, and I watched it go from this novelty to a serious issue. We had one or two patients at our hospital, and then five to 10 patients, and then 20 patients. Every day, the intensity kept ratcheting up. More patients, and the patients themselves are starting to get sicker and sicker. When it first started, we all had tons of equipment, tons of supplies, and as we started getting more patients, we started to run out. They had to ration supplies. At first we were trying to use one mask per patient. Then it was just: You get one mask for positive patients, another mask for everyone else. And now it’s just: You get one mask.
“I work 12-hour shifts. Right now, we are running about four times the number of ventilators than we normally have going. We have such a large volume of patients, but it’s really hard to find enough people to fill all the shifts. The caregiver-to-patient ratio has gone down, and you can’t spend as much time with each patient, you can’t adjust the vent settings as aggressively because you’re not going into the room as often. And we’re also trying to avoid going into the room as much as possible to reduce infection risk of staff and to conserve personal protective equipment.”
LINK
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:50 pm to fightin tigers
quote:
I mean, you can't ramp up testing and expect for the cases to remain the same.
They know that
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:52 pm to Unknown_Poster
Damn you really do have some fricked up agenda here don’t you?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:53 pm to More beer please
quote:
Damn you really do have some fricked up agenda here don’t you?
It's a first hand account by a respiratory therapist in a New Orleans ICU. What's the agenda, exactly? Pro Publica is also a legitimate reporting outlet unlike some of the links or citation-less "sources" people have posted.
Edited per below, not a physician but still a first hand account. There's no agenda here. Looking the other way doesn't mean something isn't happening.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 9:57 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 9:54 pm to Unknown_Poster
It's a respiratory therapist at what appears to be Touro.
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