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Started By
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3
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:01 pm to Volvagia
quote:
An outbreak starts with a single individual, Patient zero or the index case. They might not be the first person who has ever been infected, but they are the first documented in the epidemiological investigation.
The ones he infects are the second generation. The ones they infect are the third generation, and so on.
There is nothing you can presume temporally from which generation there are. For instance, if I infect person A, they present and then infect person C, and AFTER that I’m still a sick frick and infect Person D, person A and D share a generation even though D came after a later generation.
It is used as a way to keep track of the jumps in investigations, as well as following stages of expected epidemiological behavior.
In your stated example (4th gen), it’s a case where Wuhan Patent Zero infected someone else who infected someone else who infected someone else.
For 2nd generation cases outside Wuhan, the people spurring out cause outbreaks of their own, becoming essentially Index Patients in their community. Those they infect are second generation in THAT outbreak.
Put in super layman’s terms, the presence of 4th generation cases in one community indicates an uncontainable breakout.
2nd generation in a another community means person to person transmission has started.
As of right now, the US has no 2nd generation cases. Every case has direct connection to Wuhan.
I appreciate that. So since China is seeing 4th gen cases should that cause people to start worrying about the potential of this virus or not?
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:03 pm to Squedunk
quote:
Buddy of mine was in China but is in Taiwan now. He told a coworker of ours that the deaths are around 1,000.
My sources are saying 996
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:03 pm to Burhead
Also, keep in mind - yes, the cases and death rates are going up, but that's most likely cause tests are finally being carried out and completed. It doesn't necessarily mean that the virus is spreading as fast as it seems.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:04 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
4231 cases
563 serious
127 critical
106 deaths
4200 cases. Maybe my regression formula wasn't so bad...
quote:
For what it's worth, I dropped the last 11 days of confirmed cases into an exponential regression calculator. It's by no means perfect, but it spits out y = 32.8932e^(.4109x), where y is the number of confirmed cases and x is the day (January 16th was 1 and January 27th will be 12). The average error was ~9% and the maximum error was ~20%. Anyway, it would suggest the confirmed global cases will rise to 4,555 +/- 900 by today.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:08 pm to slackster
quote:
@BNODesk
Out of 2,714 cases in Hubei province, only 47 have been cured so far
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:11 pm to Burhead
quote:
So since China is seeing 4th gen cases should that cause people to start worrying about the potential of this virus or not?
Not really. It’s very very likely to be a pandemic. That was settled late last week. So the spread isn’t anything to be concerned about. They already have it mapped out to peak April/May.
The things to watch to determine if it’s a problem is the clinical hospitalization rate (not necessary mortality). Mortality is going to be variable, but is likely to be lowest in modern western care.
The first definitive sign of a problem will be when we hit surge capacity at a Western hospital. At that point even if mortality is “meh” it will imply patients will be sucking up antivirals and vents like sponges, resulting in later patients only getting OTC care.
Ironically, in these types of outbreaks it is often best to be caught in the first waves because of this.
FWIW I personally don’t see anything notably concerning yet. There is disproportionate hysteria to this, although I don’t know if it is based on the assumption that this is SARS 2.0 (but far more infectious which if true would be pretty epically bad), or if they have information I don’t.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:12 pm to Volvagia
Apparently the infected/death count update is only from the Hubei providence? That would be very bad if true
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:17 pm to CarolinaGamecock99
Apparently we haven't even heard the big national morning update from China yet.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 7:18 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:18 pm to GEAUXmedic
Patiently waiting baw.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:20 pm to TomTheGhost
Say bros I just watched contagion on HBO and I am JACKED UP
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:21 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
4231 cases
563 serious
127 critical
106 deaths
These numbers are suspiciously close to the models released by various research groups. Maybe China has no clue and is just having "official" data match up?
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
quote:
@BNODesk
Out of 2,714 cases in Hubei province, only 47 have been cured so far
The math doesnt add up if you use 2714 then add serious, critical, observation, death and cured.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:24 pm to rds dc
They better step up their game and clamp down on the buddies and barbers before they let the cat out of the bag then!
It’s not like they have complete control of the internet there
It’s not like they have complete control of the internet there
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:27 pm to GEAUXmedic
When will the WHO finally declare this a global public health emergency?
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 7:28 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:28 pm to TomTheGhost
quote:
The math doesnt add up if you use 2714 then add serious, critical, observation, death and cured.
Not sure what cured means; maybe no detectable virus in blood, or sputum sample, and no clinical signs of disease?
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:28 pm to rds dc
quote:
These numbers are suspiciously close to the models released by various research groups. Maybe China has no clue and is just having "official" data match up?
More likely that the models are pretty decent and these are legit numbers.
ETA - this is the problem with this thread - scientists come out and say they have a model that tries to predict the spread of the virus. The next day that model verifies, and the first instinct of many in here is to say the numbers are faked? Come on. It's like many seem to want this to go a certain way and won't accept data that suggests otherwise.
This post was edited on 1/27/20 at 7:40 pm
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:33 pm to Volvagia
quote:There were only 800 confirmed deaths from SARS WORLDWIDE. Does that justify all of this virus hysteria?
I don’t know if it is based on the assumption that this is SARS 2.0
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:37 pm to MikeyFL
quote:
When will the WHO finally declare this a global public health emergency?
When it's global. I don't mean that as a smartass - it's just that China still has like 98% of the cases and the vast majority of international cases come from a Wuhan contact.
It's almost assuredly going to be a PHEIC, but they won't pull the trigger until it hits the criteria.
Posted on 1/27/20 at 7:38 pm to Lsut81
quote:
I mean, I was on the subway in HK multiple times and then on a few different flights over there. How long do I have to live?
About 3.50 days.
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