re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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I mean, we are at a few dozen deaths at this point. How can you extrapolate that out to 6 figures at this point with a straight face?

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Math. Knowing the CFR (even if we take it at the low end), the average time from infection to death (23 days), and the R0, you can reliably calculate how many people likely have the infection regardless of reported cases, and from that you can extrapolate to the number who will die in a population with that # already infected.

It’s because they have the second oldest population in the world and smoke more than anyone. It’s pretty simple

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And still SK's numbers are based on confirmed cases. How many cases do you think went undetected? Probably a lot, considering for many people this virus is no worse than a cold. Some don't even know they were infected.

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The same thing happens with the flu. Tons of people get the flu and don’t get a flu test

Darth and ell,

How many deaths are acceptable to you so you can continue your life as it was before COVID-19? What's your number? You keep spouting how low the numbers are to date but how many deaths does it take to get your attention?

Or...will it only get your attention if it's killing your age group or your children? We've already figured out that you don't give a shite about your parents or grandparents lives.

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It saves lives.

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At what cost? And how many lives will be ruined or ended as a consequence?

It's probably a pretty fricking rare occasion that outright panic is the best response to a problem.

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How many deaths are acceptable to you so you can continue your life as it was before COVID-19? What's your number?

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This is exactly the question I’ve asked multiple times to the sky screamers in this thread with no one to answer. No one will tell me what they think is reasonable disruption for thousands of deaths.

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Or...will it only get your attention if it's killing your age group or your children? We've already figured out that you don't give a shite about your parents or grandparents lives.

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frick you man. I love my grandmothers (grandfathers are already gone). They’ve taken steps to make sure they don’t go out as much and we are doing what we can to support them. But that’s their choice. And I’ve said before that if this affected the young or working class it would get a ton more play and rightfully so. Killing off 8% of the working class and/or children is absolutely something to react to especially since they are 75% of the population.

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We’ve had just one pandemic over the last 300 years that crossed 2mill deaths world wide and it was because we had just gotten over a world war and a huge mass of people were going back home while at the same time countries tried to keep the death tolls under wraps.

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Well that’s just not true. We have had multiple in just the past 50 years. I mean....you do realize HIV is a pandemic?

For a potentially analogous example of what could happen, read up on the flu pandemic of 1969.

Killed over 60k US citizens at half the estimated lethality of this virus, and less contagious as this virus appears to be.

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Math.

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Can't wait.

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Knowing the CFR (even if we take it at the low end)

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What do you consider the "low end"?

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the average time from infection to death (23 days)

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ok..

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and the R0

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We don't know R0.

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you can reliably calculate how many people likely have the infection regardless of reported cases

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So, in your opinion, using 3 numbers, and 2 of which are wild guesses, you think we can reliably calculate anything?

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and from that you can extrapolate to the number who will die in a population with that # already infected.

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And now we're extrapolating a number that is based on multiple unknowns, and from another country with different demographics and habits at that, and applying it to the US.

Why don't you just say that you're pulling everything out of your arse?

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The same thing happens with the flu. Tons of people get the flu and don’t get a flu test

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Yeah, except we have a century of experience with the flu, and we basically estimate flu death rate based on "excess deaths" that occurred over the typical death rate. Flu CFR is not really based on an actual count of deaths or confirmed cases at all. We won't be able to do the same with this virus for a few years at best.