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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:32 pm to WicKed WayZ
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:32 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:quote:This and people who refute it just are out of touch with reality at this point
But if we act now, we can keep the deaths around 10-20,000 instead of 100-200,000 (or higher).
People who refute it have taken a closer look at the numbers than those who just accept it as fact.
I mean, we are at a few dozen deaths at this point. How can you extrapolate that out to 6 figures at this point with a straight face?
2
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:33 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
Look above you
K
I am going to keep an eye on this trend first though for the US
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:34 pm to DarthRebel
How many dead in the US so far
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 3:35 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:35 pm to Korkstand
quote:
How can you extrapolate that out to 6 figures at this point with a straight face?
Only the people who do not deal with data as a job.
The rest of us are not scared and pissed off at the sky-screamers tanking the economy to get their attention.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:36 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:It seems a lot of people think like you do.
Worst case scenarios should be used when it comes to pandemics I would think
The problem with that thinking is that it causes panic, and the effects of the panic have thus far completely overshadowed the effects of the virus. It's irrational.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:36 pm to DarthRebel
Less than 5 people in this entire thread have said USA mortality rate is close to accurate. South Korea is best estimate we have. Why does this have to be repeated 100 times a day?
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 3:37 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:37 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
Only the people who do not deal with data as a job.
Walk me through the data
Is it based on the idea that the mortality rate will end up way below the "conservative" .5% estimates we've seen (and that have been celebrated by the naysayer crowd on here)? Or that we won't get enough infections to get more than a few hundred/few thousand deaths?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:38 pm to SabiDojo
quote:
How many dead in the US so far
Just imagine a world without Washington
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:40 pm to Korkstand
quote:
The thing about percentages is we have to know the denominator. We don't know the true denominator.
The best we have is probably South Korea. That's still 10x the rate of common influenza.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:40 pm to tigerskin
quote:
South Korea is best estimate we have. Why does this have to be repeated 100 times a day?
I do not think you need to, unless you like posting that. The US is trending down and we are in the middle of a dang panic for no reason.
Here is SK
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:41 pm to Korkstand
quote:
The evidence does not suggest that it is "much more dangerous" than the flu.
Making that statement suggests you should really stop talking about this pandemic.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:42 pm to Korkstand
It saves lives.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:43 pm to tigerskin
quote:
Why does this have to be repeated 100 times a day?
B/c the US isn't reacting the same way SK did thus we should not be comparing ourselves to them.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:43 pm to BamaAtl
quote:another lie
The best we have is probably South Korea. That's still 10x the rate of common influenza.
SK is about 0.7%. The flu ranges from year to year between 0.1% and 0.2%.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:43 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
The best we have is probably South Korea. That's still 10x the rate of common influenza.
Not saying you are wrong, but can you show your work?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:46 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:
Worst case scenarios should be used when it comes to pandemics I would think
Well in that case we may as well stop trying since this is just going to kill us all. Worst case scenario, right?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:46 pm to WicKed WayZ
quote:There it is again. These measures would save lives with or without a novel virus. Other contracted illness deaths are going to go way down too most likely. There are lots of things we can do in the name of “saving lives”...
It saves lives.
No more personal travel. All travel has to now be on public transit.
Make fried food illegal. That would save tens of thousands.
Limit the amount of salt and sugar intake people are allowed to have.
Force people to see a primary doc once a year.
Curfews starting at 9 pm. Clean up the streets.
Alcohol is illegal again.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 3:48 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:47 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
BamaATL - is that the idea here?
Exactly. And honestly, the focus now should not be on overall CFR - that's going to be fairly stagnant barring a major mutation (unlikely), but with a novel virus that spreads like this...it may take 40% of the population becoming infected before herd immunity kicks in. Or summer could work (though evidence says temps don't help enough yet), a treatment breakthrough could happen, or something else magical.
What we need to be focusing on now is why Italy's mortality rate is so much higher than South Korea's - it's not because their health care systems are wildly disproportionate, or South Korea is better-suited to stopping this particular type of virus. In Italy, the healthcare system has become overwhelmed.
If we don't act today, we're in danger of the same thing. We only have so many ICU rooms, we only have so many ventilators, and we only have so much capacity to surge that for a brief period of time (e.g. converting ORs into ICU 'rooms'). That's how we keep it from expanding beyond who it's going to kill eventually regardless of what we do (barring a miracle), to the excess deaths they're seeing in Italy due to capacity issues.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:48 pm to BamaAtl
quote:
But nothing for covid-19, obviously.
This is false. We have nothing extensively studied and nothing FDA approved, but there is some hope with the chloroquine family of drugs
Posted on 3/16/20 at 3:48 pm to BamaAtl
My Beer league softball was just postponed for two weeks. 
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