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Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:12 pm to barry
CDC now saying 5th case in Arizona.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:13 pm to Burhead
quote:
CDC now saying 5th case in Arizona.
Confirmed or suspected?
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:17 pm to magildachunks
quote:
Confirmed or suspected?
Its on the CDC website.
LINK
They call it a, "very serious public health threat" but the threat is still low in the states right now.
This post was edited on 1/26/20 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:22 pm to Burhead
quote:
Its on the CDC website.
LINK
They call it a, "very serious public health threat" but the threat is still low in the states right now.
Sorry. I read that as a fifth case in Arizona, not the US.
But here's something for the conspiracy theorists: look where the cases are - CA, WA, Il, AZ, VA.
All four directions of the US.
We're being boxed in!
If you believe in those sorts of things.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:33 pm to magildachunks
There's two things that I don't fully understand yet and am interested in seeing play out.
The first one is out of the people who left Wuhan before the city was quarantined, how many of them traveled to other cities in china? Don't think we'll know for sure besides that 700k estimate a few pages ago. And even still, once in those new cities, the infected could have brought it to family or friends before they continued traveling further outside of the new quarantined zones.
The second issue relates to the first one, where of those who were infected but not showing the pneumonia signs, how many of them decided to travel to the US, France, Australia, etc. for chinese new year? We all know that planes re-circulate the air so I'm quite surprised that we haven't put a travel ban on flights to/from china yet. Planes are disease ridden on a good day (got sick flying back from Colorado in mid december and still getting over it). Add in coronavirus and it's doubtful the planes are getting scrubbed after every flight to/from china. Plus even if you ask someone on a flight from beijing, shanghai, hong kong, etc., do you think they'd say they are coming from wuhan or a quarantined city at this point? My guess is they're playing dumb/safe/quiet until in their new city, but likely risking exposing hundreds of people on flights at a time. It's not CRJ-200s flying to china with 50 seats, it's 747s, 777s and 787s with 200-300 seats.
The first one is out of the people who left Wuhan before the city was quarantined, how many of them traveled to other cities in china? Don't think we'll know for sure besides that 700k estimate a few pages ago. And even still, once in those new cities, the infected could have brought it to family or friends before they continued traveling further outside of the new quarantined zones.
The second issue relates to the first one, where of those who were infected but not showing the pneumonia signs, how many of them decided to travel to the US, France, Australia, etc. for chinese new year? We all know that planes re-circulate the air so I'm quite surprised that we haven't put a travel ban on flights to/from china yet. Planes are disease ridden on a good day (got sick flying back from Colorado in mid december and still getting over it). Add in coronavirus and it's doubtful the planes are getting scrubbed after every flight to/from china. Plus even if you ask someone on a flight from beijing, shanghai, hong kong, etc., do you think they'd say they are coming from wuhan or a quarantined city at this point? My guess is they're playing dumb/safe/quiet until in their new city, but likely risking exposing hundreds of people on flights at a time. It's not CRJ-200s flying to china with 50 seats, it's 747s, 777s and 787s with 200-300 seats.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:36 pm to Burhead
Do we know where in AZ?
Can’t find anything that says where
Can’t find anything that says where
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:38 pm to lsunurse
quote:
Do we know where in AZ?
Can’t find anything that says where
Check your patient logs.
Godspeed nurse
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:38 pm to lsunurse
quote:
Do we know where in AZ?
Can’t find anything that says where
Maricopa.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:41 pm to Klark Kent
quote:
No one eats raccoons where I’m from.
Agree ... now possum is a different story
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:44 pm to Burhead
FML
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:44 pm to Burhead
All quiet on the flight, but I wonder what the chances are that someone on this thing has it... prob 250 people on board.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:48 pm to Lsut81
What route are you on? For united you've gotta be going to SFO, EWR, or ORD but not sure of origin. I'm curious to see what special precautions US Customs and Immigration has in store for you when you land, please let us know!
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:50 pm to CuseTiger
As of Friday. None.
Got in Houston at 2PM from Tokyo.
Asked me business or pleasure? And where else I had visited besides Japan?
Got in Houston at 2PM from Tokyo.
Asked me business or pleasure? And where else I had visited besides Japan?
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:50 pm to CuseTiger
Don’t know the credibility of this paper...
LINK
quote:
Accounting for the impact of the variations in disease reporting rate, we modelled the epidemic curve of 2019-nCoV cases time series, in mainland China from January 10 to January 21, 2020, through the exponential growth. With the estimated intrinsic growth rate (?), we estimated R0 by using the serial intervals (SI) of two other well-known coronavirus diseases, MERS and SARS, as approximations for the true unknown SI. Findings: The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.
LINK
Posted on 1/26/20 at 2:55 pm to CuseTiger
quote:
What route are you on?
SFO
Yeah I’m very interested to know if there will be any sort of screening once we arrive.
Will let you know in 7hrs
Posted on 1/26/20 at 3:04 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
Don’t know the credibility of this paper.
So anywhere from 2.7 to 7.1.
It’s amazing how little is known at this point. I’m sure China has some brilliant epidemiologist that could figure this out fairly quickly. I haven’t seen any official guestiments of mortality rates, either.
This post was edited on 1/26/20 at 3:08 pm
Posted on 1/26/20 at 3:04 pm to Burhead
quote:
Los Angeles County confirms its first case bringing the US total to 4 now.
Expect Hawaii and Vegas soon.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 3:06 pm to CivilTiger83
Thanks for the link. Wish the paper went into more detail other than their R0 modeling. That paper yesterday covered more metrics.
Posted on 1/26/20 at 3:07 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
It’s amassing how little is known at this point. I’m sure China has some brilliant epidemiologist that could figure this out fairly quickly. I haven’t seen any official guestiments of mortality rates, either.
Part of the problem is probably due to it mutating extremely fast.
It keeps changing up on them.
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