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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:21 am to Eat Your Crow
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:21 am to Eat Your Crow
1
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:23 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:All of your elderly family members simulaneously pray for you to feel a little under the weather
If I feel ill at all I will not go around my elderly family members
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:24 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
So SK’s CFR has gone from .68 to .9%?
Why? Why is the rate of death increasing?
Rate isn't changing but is being more accurately reflected as more cases are resolved. There are several challenges when trying to calculate CFR - Some people sick today will die in the future and some people are sick today that aren't known about. Modeling tries to account for that and that is how corrected CFR is estimated. Also, there is an infection fatality rate that can be generated that tries to account for people that are sick today that aren't captured in testing data. The IFR is going to be lower than the CFR but better testing can reduce the spread between the two numbers. In SK, they conducted over 200,000 test, so calculating IFR and CFR will produce numbers with less spread. In the US, lack of testing results in calculated IFR and CFR with a huge spread.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:24 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Once again, what are you doing then? I assume since my measures are so poor, you are not going around anyone and are staying home
I’m not criticizing just passing information.
Most important thing you can do individually is social spacing and washing hands.
I’m more interested to see what macro steps will be taken. I do think we may see a closure of schools and some businesses for a few weeks. I know some local schools have already started preparing.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:25 am to Antonio Moss
Anyone have it yet in this thread?
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:25 am to Fun Bunch
quote:But then we would have a ton of people with it.
Objectively, the US has to do a much much much better job with widespread testing.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:26 am to Antonio Moss
quote:Not being rude, but I am fairly certain with multiple viruses you are contagious before showing symptoms.
I’m not criticizing just passing information.
But once again, it isnt exactly possible to just never go around people and always stay home. So, once you "know" you are ill, dont leave the house
This post was edited on 3/11/20 at 11:27 am
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:27 am to tigerfoot
quote:
But then we would have a ton of people with it.
That's what I am wondering. If we have a bunch of people with the virus, but not that many critical does that make this better or worse?
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:28 am to UnluckyTiger
No. But I may be the only one who’s had other posters hope I have it.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:28 am to fightin tigers
Better fatality rate. Easier to spread. Pick your poison.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:29 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
I am just saying the precautions I will personally take, and you responded with "you are contagious even when asymptomatic"
So what are you doing?
My point is simply that cancelling events, social distancing etc, will do more to prevent the spread of this than anything that the "know-it-alls" keep coming up with. The funny thing about it is the ones against doing things like this, will be screaming about how they were right, when the stuff they were making fun of will ultimately be the reason why it doesn't become an epidemic.
This post was edited on 3/11/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:29 am to SaintsandTigers
quote:
Not being rude, but I am fairly certain with just about every virus you are contagious before showing symptoms.
Correct.
It’s all about limiting spread - we aren’t going to completely stop it. But the most important thing is to slow the spread so that the medical system isn’t overloaded.
If 50K in the BR area get it over eight months that isn’t an enormous deal.
If 50K in the BR area get it over six weeks that may be a disastrous situation.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:30 am to SaintsandTigers
No but we should be practicing social distancing at all times. That’s actually great news if it’s primarily spread through coughing or even breathing. Just don’t get anywhere super crowded and anywhere you do go keep about a yard of distance between yourself and whoever
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:30 am to ell_13
quote:
No. But I may be the only one who’s had other posters hope I have it.
There are like 5 other baseball posters I can think of right now that I'd prefer have it.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:30 am to Antonio Moss
from reddit
quote:
Italy has reported 168 new deaths in the last day -- 18 deaths more than on China's worst day, February 23. China had 77,150 confirmed cases at that time, Italy now has only 10,149 confirmed cases and more people dying per day. Something is going terribly wrong in Italy.
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 3/11/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:31 am to cooLStorybreaUx
Another note, people using the term "most contagious" before symptoms show are full of it
Are you contagious? Yes. Same with other viruses
But if you arent coughing/sneezing in the air, coughing/sneezing into your hand and rubbing it on surfaces/people, its harder to transmit it
So eventhough you are contagious without symptoms, the chance of spreading it is far lower at that time
I cant wait to see someone argue this
Are you contagious? Yes. Same with other viruses
But if you arent coughing/sneezing in the air, coughing/sneezing into your hand and rubbing it on surfaces/people, its harder to transmit it
So eventhough you are contagious without symptoms, the chance of spreading it is far lower at that time
I cant wait to see someone argue this
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:32 am to ProjectP2294
You’re an angel, Project.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:34 am to ell_13
So this was just a formality but the WHO has declared this to be a pandemic.
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:34 am to Malik Agar
quote:
Tigerqueef10 has been proving himself to be dumber and dumber throughout this thread. He'll probably claim that he was trolling in the end to try to save face.
when the worst thing to come of this is proven to be clowns like you overreacting and causing panic I expect an apology
Posted on 3/11/20 at 11:34 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why? Why is the rate of death increasing?
It’s not.
It’s that y’all keep on wanting to think that even among the vulnerable, people don’t just drop dead from the disease. It can be over a month in the hospital before you expire.
So when you try to do your daily calculations based on current cases and deaths, this early in the outbreak a significant portion of cases *could* be in high risk categories and are in a downward spiral.
This means early numbers represents the likely floor of the estimate, not the median of the estimate.
CFR should be determined by case resolution percentages, but that takes too long for the 24H news cycle world we are in so they do this stupid deaths/cases metric.
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