re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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First post in a series by him explaining this. He is an epidemiologist and has taught this stuff at Harvard.

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From last night:

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JonRead
@JonRead15
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14h
With lots of uncertainty in both case data and model uncertainty, R0 estimates will be changing rapidly. Important to update and monitor. We've updated our estimates with case data through 22 Jan. New estimated R0 of 2.5 95% CI 2.4, 2.6. Paper to be updated asap. #coronvirus

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The guy above is one of the writers on the paper that came up with 3.8 r0 value.

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I'm not saying the situation over there isn't worse than what the Chinese gov is telling us. I'm saying we don't know enough yet about the actual virus to say how bad it is.

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You do realize this is their Black Friday holiday right? An already fragile economy is fixing to get real fragile. Communist don’t do this unless it’s FUBAR.

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China's president, who would rather this go away is on the news calling it a "grave situation".

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This is literally all you are hanging on as if you are an expert of Chinese politics enough to read his desires and intentions.

Their image got DESTROYED globally because of SARS and the response they did when they tried to pretend it wasn’t an issue and suppress all news.

In the East, one’s image means a lot, especially Uber prickly assholes with Middle Kingdom complex.

So what do they do here? Cautiously overreact so that no one can claim they were part of the problem. They can honestly point to over the top photos of them dumping dirt in roads that they allowed to be taken and leak as evidence.

You are acting like closing cities down is a significant move...except it isn’t. The perspective is entirely different than the same action in the West. They don’t have to justify it to anyone but themselves, and any economic losses might be deemed acceptable against the costs of a PR disaster. Hell the culture there is such that the population is inclined to accept it as the wise judgement of their superiors looking out for them.

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You do realize this is their Black Friday holiday right?

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Yeah, I am well aware. And one of the big reasons I have said from the start of this thread that it is worse than their gov is letting on.

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Communist don’t do this unless it’s FUBAR.

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Or maybe they don't want it to get publicly blasted like their handling of SARS

Right now, it APPEARS to be on the same level as the flu minus the vaccines and immune resistance we already have. Not good and some people will die as a result but not the end of the world. More than likely if you have a flu patient and novel coronavirus patient side by side, you couldn't tell the difference.

We should get a better idea in the next week with it spreading to other countries.

It just seems "super bad" to compare it to Spanish Flu without the clarification that the mortality rate was exponentially higher with 1918 and this is unlikely to remotely resemble something of that severity.

Maybe his audience is expected to know that, but it just seems quite likely to add to the panic.

Apparently he's a legit doctor with a wikipedia page.

LINK

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Eric L. Feigl-Ding is an American public health scientist who has received awards for his work in epidemiology, nutrition, and health economics. He is a visiting scientist[2] at the Harvard School of Public Health and Chief Health Economist and Senior Vice President with Microclinic International. He is a Paul and Daisy Soros Fellow,[3] and a WEF Global Shaper. He was also a 2018 Democratic candidate for Congress from Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district,[4] as an advocate for public health, drug safety, and science.[5]

Ding was a whistle-blower in the drug safety risks of the painkillers Vioxx, Celebrex, and Bextra, and was recognized in The New York Times,[6] and in the book Poison Pills: The Untold Story of the Vioxx Drug Scandal.[7]

Ding founded the Campaign for Cancer Prevention, a 6 million member online cancer education and fundraising campaign medical research, featured in The New York Times[8] He is a recognized drinking water health advocate[9] and founded ToxinAlert.org,[10] as a public alert tool[11] to warn communities about drinking water contaminations to prevent future lead poisonings[12] like the Flint Water Crisis.

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Nice preemptive crawfishing position.

Watch fewer than a hundred Americans or so die from this in spite of widespread infection, but still claim a hypothetical and invisible additional tens of thousands dead in China.

Nice move. No one can argue against that. Wont even consider the possibility of those people are already being reported as dead....because China

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