- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/8/20 at 12:24 am to rds dc
Posted on 3/8/20 at 12:24 am to rds dc
quote:
Link?
PDF link
quote:
We simultaneously fitted our model to four data sets: (1) the number of confirmed cases by day of disease onset from January 1 to February 11, (2) the number of deaths by day of occurrence from January 1 to February 11, (3) the age distribution of all confirmed cases until 11 February and (4) the age distribution of all deaths reported by 11 February. These data were extracted from the CCDC report [9]. We assumed that all deaths were reported and that all symptomatic cases among people of aged 80 years and older were also reported. For the other age classes, we modelled the underreporting of symptomatic cases by an age-dependent reporting rate. We used negative binomial distributions to describe the number of reported cases and deaths and multinomial distributions to describe the distribution of cases and deaths over age classes. We implemented the model in a Bayesian framework using Stan[15]. All code and data are available from LINK
quote:
Our model accurately describes the dynamics of transmission and mortality by age group during the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei from 1 January to 11 February (Figure 2). Control measures implemented on 20 January led to a reduction of transmissibility by 99% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 97-100), with a diminution in case incidence after six days. Under the assumption that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 was homogeneous by age, so that the deficit of reported cases in the younger age classes can be attributed to surveillance bias, the total number of symptomatic cases was estimated to 74,200 (95%CrI: 67,000-81,600), 1.8 times more than the 41,092 reported cases during that period. Under the assumption that 49% of infections lead to symptoms, this implies that a total of 152,700 individuals (95%CrI: 137,800-167,900) were infected in the Hubei province during that period.
0
Posted on 3/8/20 at 6:10 am to stout
quote:
90 days this thing will be a distant memory.
We all hope you are right but so far this is not the expected outcome. We may be in for a seasonal corona virus just like we have a seasonal influenza virus to deal with. Hopefully someone can get a cure or at least an inoculation to help protect us against possible infection. As a relatively healthy 43 yr old I am not too worried about catching this thing but I do worry about my mother and a dear friend who is 73.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 7:31 am to Dr RC
quote:
I would honestly be surprised if one of them doesn't end up with it. It being an election year there will likely be quite a few Senators and Congressmen that catch it.
Okay chicken little. 0.005% of the Chinese population was confirmed to have caught the virus. God damn you idiots are acting like this is a worldwide plague that is going to wipe the planet clean.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 7:38 am to Pintail
You are right.
Someone who travels for months on end shaking hands with strangers daily is not at all at a heightened risk of getting it.
Hell, I don’t even know why it’s spreading globally like it is considering it “couldn’t” spread in China.
Someone who travels for months on end shaking hands with strangers daily is not at all at a heightened risk of getting it.
Hell, I don’t even know why it’s spreading globally like it is considering it “couldn’t” spread in China.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:05 am to Volvagia
quote:
Someone who travels for months on end shaking hands with strangers daily is not at all at a heightened risk of getting it.
Then don’t be a disgusting slob. Wash your hands after you touch nasty shite before you touch your orifices.
The one thing this virus is going to show is just how disgusting everyone is. The amount of people that will take a shite without washing their hands after, walk into a restaurant touching everything on the way, shaking hands, then eating their food is disgusting. Don’t be a slob and you will lessen your chance of catching this. The US doesn’t need to shut down for it.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:11 am to stout
quote:
In 90 days this thing will be a distant memory.
Not saying you are wrong but can you explain your reasoning?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:11 am to stout
Add Ohio to list of states that can now test. The state lab as well as two private labs, Quest and Labcorp, are running the tests for the state.
Columbus Dispatch article about testing
Columbus Dispatch article about testing
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:18 am to MadDogs
quote:
“We have had patients presenting here, angry that they cannot be tested for COVID-19, yelling, cussing, throwing their dirty mask at us and even spitting their secretions on the floor and walls on their way out,” Ruedebusch, who works at an urgent care clinic in the Seattle suburb of Monroe, wrote on Facebook.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-tests-idUSKBN20S096
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:19 am to Jon Ham
Antifa gonna antifa
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:23 am to Volvagia
Is it fair to say the botched testing is the US Federal Govt’s biggest frickup since 9/11? How many additional people could end up dying due to the avoidable testing delays?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:23 am to Pintail
quote:
Okay chicken little. 0.005% of the Chinese population was confirmed to have caught the virus. God damn you idiots are acting like this is a worldwide plague that is going to wipe the planet clean.
They quarantined 11 million people where this thing started. Think that may have something to do with why the rest of China didnt catch it?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:25 am to Jon Ham
quote:
Is it fair to say the botched testing is the US Federal Govt’s biggest frickup since 9/11? How many additional people could end up dying due to the avoidable testing delays?
Not to bring politics into this but im sure it will be used as a political torpedo during the election.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:25 am to Jon Ham
At this point?
No one.
It’s not like the clinical treatment changes.
It only has value if you are attempting to proactively contain the spread, which the CDC/Trump has no intention of doing.
No one.
It’s not like the clinical treatment changes.
It only has value if you are attempting to proactively contain the spread, which the CDC/Trump has no intention of doing.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:29 am to Volvagia
So, yesterday there were 370 cases and this morning they reporting 439 cases. How much longer before we double that? 
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:32 am to fishfighter
quote:
So, yesterday there were 370 cases and this morning they reporting 439 cases. How much longer before we double that?
If you think the US cases won’t at least get in the thousands then you are fooling yourself.
The CDC and Fed fricked up from the start and still are by not screening people entering the country from the likes of Italy.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:32 am to fishfighter
quote:
So, yesterday there were 370 cases and this morning they reporting 439 cases. How much longer before we double that?
I'd be surprised if we're not over 1000 by Friday
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:33 am to fishfighter
quote:
The small-town hospital where Kentucky’s first case of coronavirus appeared says it took steps to isolate the patient, even though the person had not yet been tested for coronavirus.
“At that time patient did not meet KDPH (Kentucky Department for Public Health) health screening and was treated for the presented symptoms,” the hospital said in the statement. “When symptoms did not subside, the patient returned.”
At that point, the hospital did further tests and contacted the state health department, but the department “determined the patient did not qualify for testing” for coronavirus, the hospital said.
At that point, the hospital’s clinicians decided to admit the patient to the hospital because of their condition. The patient, who has not been publicly identified, was placed in a negative pressure isolation room, the hospital said.
This is unbelievable
This is exactly why I was saying no one in an outpatient setting is testing, even if you are very suspicious. You aren’t stopping your clinic to sit on the phone with the health department for hours only for them to determine the patient shouldn’t be tested.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 8:36 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:33 am to Volvagia
quote:
It only has value if you are attempting to proactively contain the spread, which the CDC/Trump has no intention of doing.
CDC/Trump May have been willing to quarantine small areas if we had aggressively tested on day 1 and pin pointed where the clusters were. Due to the delay any quarantines would now have to be massively larger.
Our government now has to act like quarantines were never on the table, since if they admitted they were they would admit they botched the containment strategy due to early testing failures.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:45 am to fishfighter
quote:
So, yesterday there were 370 cases and this morning they reporting 439 cases. How much longer before we double that?
Got to love these random numbers
439
Page 416 of 1190
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News