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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:49 am to Jon Ham
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:49 am to Jon Ham
quote:
CDC/Trump May have been willing to quarantine small areas if we had aggressively tested on day 1 and pin pointed where the clusters were.
From day one the discussion has been to down play down play down play.
Even the measures they said they would do on international travelers really weren’t done.
There really isn’t a hypothetical bounded in reality here claiming that they would have done things differently if they had tested more.
Hell, the Washington cluster was identified because local hospitals were tired of getting stonewalled and made their own test after weeks of trying to badger the CDC
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 8:50 am
2
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:52 am to fishfighter
quote:
So, yesterday there were 370 cases and this morning they reporting 439 cases. How much longer before we double that?
Absent aggressive containment (closing public places, lockdowns, etc) the virus’s replication rate means that at this stage of the outbreak, you can expect the infected to double every week.
Be aware that identified cases will always be lower than actual infected. We might be in the thousands already.
And yes, at that kind of growth rate you can expect the identified case count to be above 65k in the US by the end of April.
No clue how much these closures of events and businesses adjusting their practices will downgrade that replication rate though. 65k is just the worst case of what if we do nothing.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 8:57 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:55 am to frankthetank
Work is closed for me.
Pretty pumped
Taking the female to gulf shores
Pretty pumped
Taking the female to gulf shores
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:57 am to SDVTiger
Its 447 now. Is that less "random" for you?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 8:59 am to DollaChoppa
Uts 469 that's kinda random no?
Now it's been lowered to 420
Crazy
Now it's been lowered to 420
Crazy
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:00 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:00 am to Volvagia
quote:
Even the measures they said they would do on international travelers really weren’t done.
Link?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:03 am to Volvagia
quote:
From day one the discussion has been to down play down play down play.
Nah dude, the media and millennial nutters have been overhyping it out the wazoo.
It damned sure is going to spread but health impact is like the seasonal flu at most. The vast majority will think they had the common cold or mild flu. Same shite happened in 2009 with Swine Flu as the H1N1 strain the same thing as Spanish Flu, but with improved personal hygiene and hospitals much more advanced in allowing more personal space as the biggest improvement in treatment.
Nutters going to nut and pussies going to ooze.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:05 am to Volvagia
quote:
Be aware that identified cases will always be lower than actual infected. We might be in the thousands already. And yes, at that kind of growth rate you can expect the identified case count to be above 65k in the US by the end of April.
This is going to sound strange, but can you run that estimation backwards?
If we assumed there were 235,000 cases in Italy right now and you worked backwards assuming exponential growth can you tell me when that outbreak would have had to start?
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:06 am to CitizenK
quote:
Nah dude, the media and millennial nutters have been overhyping it out the wazoo.
And that has what to do with the Trump admin?
I mean, he had a press conference in response to the first US coronavirus deaths saying “wow, I didn’t realize people died of the flu”
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:06 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:06 am to I Bleed Garnet
quote:
Work is closed for me.
Just curious — what type of work??
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:07 am to Magician2
quote:
Link?
The government announced screening of travelers returning from Italy last Friday (week ago this past Friday). On Sunday the poster on this board named hungryone flew back from Italy and entered the country in the same manner she has in the past. No screening, no questions, nothing. Welcome back to the USA.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:07 am to WaWaWeeWa
Yes. But your answer is layering estimation over estimation over estimation.
Better to check the genetics of the sample to see when it branched off from a Chinese or Iranian strain.
Better to check the genetics of the sample to see when it branched off from a Chinese or Iranian strain.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:09 am to CitizenK
quote:
Same shite happened in 2009 with Swine Flu
I seem to remember getting a vaccine. And some people already have decent immunity to H1N1. It’s not even close to the same thing.
Unfortunately this event will suffer from the media crying wolf for everything. When the real threat comes this is the response we get.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:10 am to VABuckeye
quote:
The government announced screening of travelers returning from Italy last Friday (week ago this past Friday). On Sunday the poster on this board named hungryone flew back from Italy and entered the country in the same manner she has in the past. No screening, no questions, nothing. Welcome back to the USA.
There were no Italy travel restrictions put in place.... back in late Jan it’s was specifically China and then Asian countries.
I think they should now be full in place for Italy and Iran.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:12 am to WaWaWeeWa
Who here wants more government influence over your healthcare?
This is a great example.
This is a great example.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:13 am to Magician2
Screenings were supposed to be in place last weekend and they were not. Not travel restrictions but screening of US citizens reentering the country from Italy.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:14 am to Volvagia
quote:
Yes. But your answer is layering estimation over estimation over estimation.
The current mortality rate in Italy is 4% with 5,883 cases. If we assumed the mortality rate was 0.1% (“just the next flu”). That would mean there would be 235,000 cases in Italy right now.
I was trying to figure out when the outbreak would have had to start to achieve those numbers with a R0 of 2-3.
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:21 am to WaWaWeeWa
I’m no expert in the field, but I suspect that the extremely asymmetric age based clinical attack rate makes estimations on such a broadly averaged metric very very suspect.
Base your extrapolations on the 50+ age group and estimate total infected based on that subgroup.
Personally 235k total infected in Italy alone doesn’t pass the smell test. It seems very high for this early in the game.
Base your extrapolations on the 50+ age group and estimate total infected based on that subgroup.
Personally 235k total infected in Italy alone doesn’t pass the smell test. It seems very high for this early in the game.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:23 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:29 am to TigerBait1971
(no message)
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:33 am
Posted on 3/8/20 at 9:29 am to Pintail
quote:
The amount of people that will take a shite without washing their hands after, walk into a restaurant touching everything on the way, shaking hands, then eating their food is disgusting.
Outside the context of this thread about this virus you are completely correct. People are always calling me a germophobe. I don’t give a shite. I’m not trying to eat some else’s germs from their nether regions off the menu at a restaurant. And don’t get me started on shopping carts. And the literal shite that cash sees is unbelievable.
frick all of that.
This post was edited on 3/8/20 at 9:32 am
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