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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:16 am to BeepNode
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:16 am to BeepNode
quote:
Hey, we need to produce more supplies to prepare.
Sir, we outsourced all of that to China.
Oops?
Hey but at least for a few years shareholders made more money even if it hurt us more in the long run.
0
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:18 am to Volvagia
This is what I am hoping for. As well as warm weather. Those two factors together will hopefully lower the R0 enough to allow our hospitals to function properly.
Can you comment on the curves? I would expect the global curves to be flattening due to China’s numbers. But are the curves from all cases outside of China flattening? That would be very encouraging.
Can you comment on the curves? I would expect the global curves to be flattening due to China’s numbers. But are the curves from all cases outside of China flattening? That would be very encouraging.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:18 am to rds dc
quote:
BREAKING: Italy closing all schools and universities across the country due to coronavirus - ANSA
I’ll be interested to see if these classical hypothetical Petri dishes truly are as central to spreading illness as we think
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:25 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
an extra ~25,000 deaths
This has been debunked
quote:
who knows how many ICU visits
Exactly. We don’t know that it equaled more ICU visits because the 25,000 you quoted is a computer algorithm that uses all cases of pneumonia to estimate flu deaths.
, so now we're just ignoring the flu numbers when they don't fit our narrative? People love to quote that .1% mortality rate from those algorithms, but when asked to discuss the actual raw numbers, you're going to argue they're just made up. Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:33 am to DollaChoppa
quote:
Y’all saw India announced 22 new cases? I know we’ve all been kinda wondering about it’s impact there.
Just a matter of time. Place is tailor made for an outbreak of something.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:33 am to Volvagia
quote:
next tier of prepping: massive booze run.
Massive booze inventory isn't prepping. It's how one lives.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:37 am to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
Massive booze inventory isn't prepping. It's how one lives
I only have 4 bottles of bourbon on hand. I'm clearly living incorrectly. Need to remedy ASAP.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 7:55 am to slackster
quote:
so now we're just ignoring the flu numbers when they don't fit our narrative? People love to quote that .1% mortality rate from those algorithms, but when asked to discuss the actual raw numbers, you're going to argue they're just made up
Well are you going to put coronavirus into the same mathematical equations that you are putting flu numbers?
You haven’t even addressed the breakdown of the flu numbers
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:07 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Well are you going to put coronavirus into the same mathematical equations that you are putting flu numbers?
That's what everyone is doing when they come up with these 500,000 US deaths scenario. They have no problem taking the 14 million infections (and applying their 2% coronavirus mortality rate that is hogwash) that algorithm spits out as fact, but the flu deaths, which are derived from actual hospitalizations, aren't to be trusted?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:12 am to slackster
quote:
That's what everyone is doing when they come up with these 500,000 US deaths scenario. They have no problem taking the 14 million infections (and applying their 2% coronavirus mortality rate that is hogwash) that algorithm spits out as fact, but the flu deaths, which are derived from actual hospitalizations, aren't to be trusted?
That’s not true, and I haven’t seen any predictions about total number of deaths from coronavirus. And they aren’t from the mathematical models used for flu.
The flu numbers aren’t derived from actual hospitalizations
See my post here Flu numbers myth
quote:
Flu (indentified virus) - 215
Flu with pneumonia (identified virus) - 95
Flu/ other respiratory manifestations (virus identified) - 112
Flu/ other manifestations (virus identified) - 8
Flu (virus not identified) - 634
Flu with pneumonia (virus not identified - 322 Flu/other respiratory manifestations (virus not identified) - 301
Flu/ other manifestation (virus not identified) - 11
Total: 1,698
This is from the CDC’s data. As you can see they are already estimating cases where they didn’t even find virus present. Yet they go a step further and somehow get to a total number that is 30x higher
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 8:13 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:14 am to slackster
Saw the new stated mortality rate is up to 3.4%.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:17 am to slackster
A problem with flu stats is if you died from an infected hangnail and diabetes with a slight case of pneumonia, it’s a flu death.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:37 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
This is from the CDC’s data.
I’m taking your data as fact and I said I was surprised when you initially posted it.
What’s funny though, is earlier in this thread, there was a tweet from someone sounding an alarm who claimed he testified in front of Congress numerous times (as he was an authority on this) and he claimed 10+ million infected and 40k deaths from the flu.
You would think an “expert” would be using the real data.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:38 am to WaWaWeeWa
The WHO has previously noted the pitfalls of comparing data/estimates from seasonal influenza to data from pandemic influenza, mostly for the same reasons that have been repeatedly noted on this board. It's even harder to compare seasonal flu data to a novel coronavirus outbreak.
LINK
quote:
Comparing deaths from pandemic and seasonal influenza
Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 briefing note 20
22 DECEMBER 2009 | GENEVA - Efforts to assess the severity of the H1N1 influenza pandemic sometimes compare numbers of confirmed deaths with those estimated for seasonal influenza, either nationally or worldwide. Such comparisons are not reliable for several reasons and can be misleading.
LINK
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:41 am to Lsut81
quote:
What’s funny though, is earlier in this thread, there was a tweet from someone sounding an alarm who claimed he testified in front of Congress numerous times (as he was an authority on this) and he claimed 10+ million infected and 40k deaths from the flu.
Even at 40,000 deaths from flu he has a reason to sound the alarm in his mind
He doesn’t need to contradict his statements to congress in order to do that.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:45 am to WaWaWeeWa
Y’all realize the coronavirus is just another version of the flu. And every year there are multiple versions of the flu. Some are more “deadly” than others. The flu is a broad term and the overall mortality rate is a combination of all those strains, some of which are way more deadly than the 0.1% average.
The panic over this shite is hilarious.
The panic over this shite is hilarious.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:47 am to ell_13
quote:
Y’all realize the coronavirus is just another version of the flu. And every year there are multiple versions of the flu.
This is not a flu strain
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:51 am to Bullfrog
quote:
A problem with flu stats is if you died from an infected hangnail and diabetes with a slight case of pneumonia, it’s a flu death.
Ehh
Yes there are almost always comorbidities with "flu deaths", but usually they only count it if they think the person would've survived the other issues without the flu.
I work in healthcare analytics and consulting for my profession and we deal with inflated flu numbers all the time in our predictive modeling.
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 8:53 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:54 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
I work in healthcare analytics and consulting for my profession and we deal with inflated flu numbers all the time in our predictive modeling.
Do you agree with my assessment of the flu numbers? By your estimation how much are the flu deaths inflated?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 8:57 am to TheCaterpillar
quote:
. @VP : "Today we will issue new guidance from the CDC that will make it clear that any American can be tested" for coronavirus "no restrictions, subject to doctor's orders." Says 2,500 kits will be out this week representing 1.5 million tests.
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