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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/4/20 at 10:34 am to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 3/4/20 at 10:34 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
First time I’ve seen this broken down by providence. certainly reinforces the idea that if we can keep the cases low, mortality should stay low. But also a warning of what can happen if we don’t. This is encouraging.
That also does make it seem like maybe those researchers are right about the two strains of the virus.
quote:
The team of experts from Beijing and Shanghai said 70 per cent of people have caught the most aggressive strain of the virus but that this causes such bad illness that it has struggled to spread since early January.
Early January means that those who caught the more aggressive strain would primarily be in Hubei province.
That might have helped explain the quick spread and the mortality rate seen there.
1
Posted on 3/4/20 at 10:50 am to Bullfrog
quote:
A problem with flu stats is if you died from an infected hangnail and diabetes with a slight case of pneumonia, it’s a flu death.
, incorrect, despite WaWee's claims otherwise. From actual death certificates:
2018 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 59,120
2017 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 55,672
2016 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 51,537
2015 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 55,672
According to his claims, all of those would be flu deaths in the US. However, that's not the way it works. The CDC's flu deaths for each of those years?
14-15 - 51,000
15-16 - 23,000
16-17 - 38,000
17-18 - 61,000
Granted, the reporting years aren't apples to apples, but those 4 years total 173,000 deaths vs 222,001 of influenza and pneumonia reported deaths on death certificates.
It makes for a nice conspiracy theory to say the CDC is stretching the numbers, but the data simply doesn't back that up.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:05 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
What do you mean. Why does this guy have to contradict his previous statements about the flu numbers to say COVID-19 is a problem?
It’s a perfectly logical statement to say there were 40,000 flu deaths and COVID-19 could be worse.... that’s what he did. He doesn’t have to talk specifically about the flu numbers to make that statement.
But he did.
He applied the case fatality rate of COVID-19 to the CDC's yearly flu estimates. That's simply irresponsible for at least two reasons -
1) If those flu deaths are inflated, as you claim, then the annual flu infection numbers that are derived from those deaths are inflated.
2) Using a case fatality rate and applying it to an estimate of infections is ridiculous. It's pretty easy to understand why a case fatality rate of a novel virus should not be applied to a yearly flu infection estimate, but to drive home that point - of countries with at least 5 cases, the US currently has the highest mortality rate in the world for COVID-19 at 6.5%. Why aren't we applying that CFR to flu estimates? The answer to that question is why the entire practice is inflated.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:11 am to slackster
quote:
It makes for a nice conspiracy theory to say the CDC is stretching the numbers, but the data simply doesn't back that up.
You are completely wrong and just helped prove my point.
quote:
2018 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 59,120 2017 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 55,672 2016 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 51,537 2015 Influenza and Pneumonia deaths - 55,672
This should say flu OR pneumonia
quote:
Granted, the reporting years aren't apples to apples, but those 4 years total 173,000 deaths vs 222,001 of influenza and pneumonia reported deaths on death certificates.
This proves my point. It’s saying that 78% of pneumonia deaths are due to flu. It’s just wrong. There are countless other causes of pneumonia, flu is minuscule on that list.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:18 am to WaWaWeeWa
Release Date for No Time To Die was just pushed back to November. Wonder if we'll see a trend of movies doing this now.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:19 am to slackster
quote:
According to his claims, all of those would be flu deaths in the US. However, that's not the way it works.
He didn’t say all pneumonia was listed as flu.
He said all pneumonia not otherwise attributed was listed as flu.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:19 am to WaWaWeeWa
Read this today about the New Hampshire case:
8:19 a.m. New Hampshire's 1st patient told to stay isolated but went to event instead, officials say
The first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in New Hampshire is a hospital employee who went to an event despite being told to stay isolated, officials said.
Can we enact a law to where we can kill people like this?
8:19 a.m. New Hampshire's 1st patient told to stay isolated but went to event instead, officials say
The first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in New Hampshire is a hospital employee who went to an event despite being told to stay isolated, officials said.
Can we enact a law to where we can kill people like this?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:21 am to TnMountaineer
The dichotomy here is amusing. You have the “just a flu” camp, and you have the “let’s kill him for leaving home with it” camp.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:21 am to bbrownso
quote:
That also does make it seem like maybe those researchers are right about the two strains of the virus.
If there are two strains, I wonder if they have cross immunity, and which strain predominates in other countries.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:23 am to wdhalgren
If you want to get into that, we are going to have to define how small a difference a “strain” is.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:23 am to slackster
quote:
From actual death certificates:
No it’s not. Because that’s not even a category on death certificates. I searched the link below myself. Feel free to do the same.
CDC death certificates
This is what it says:
Flu (indentified virus) - 215
Flu with pneumonia (identified virus) - 95
Flu/ other respiratory manifestations (virus identified) - 112
Flu/ other manifestations (virus identified) - 8
Flu (virus not identified) - 634
Flu with pneumonia (virus not identified - 322
Flu/other respiratory manifestations (virus not identified) - 301
Flu/ other manifestation (virus not identified) - 11
Total: 1,698
Any possible cause of mortality related to flu can be classified in one of those categories.
You can look for deaths by pneumonia specifically. Such as bacterial pneumonia of which there are about 20 categories of different types of pneumonia and account for probably 60,000 cases. Here is an example.
The causes of bacterial pneumonia can be endless and have nothing to do with flu, but these are somehow included in the data.
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 11:25 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:25 am to rds dc
Update from Italy
2,703 active cases, 276 recovered, 107 (+28) deaths.
2,703 active cases, 276 recovered, 107 (+28) deaths.
quote:
ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER SAYS ITALY'S HEALTH SERVICE RISKS BEING OVERWHELMED BY CORONAVIRUS
This post was edited on 3/4/20 at 11:36 am
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:25 am to WaWaWeeWa
According to one dataset that I saw, there were about 42,000 positive influenza tests in the US in the 2018-19 flu season. No information was given about how many of those died.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:27 am to Volvagia
quote:
He said all pneumonia not otherwise attributed was listed as flu.
They take a step further and say “pneumonia” anywhere on the death certificate is included in their calculations. Even if the cause is specified.
This is directly from the methods give by the CDC
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:29 am to Volvagia
quote:
The dichotomy here is amusing. You have the “just a flu” camp, and you have the “let’s kill him for leaving home with it” camp.
I think the killing is only for when they leave home when they are told not to.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:29 am to Volvagia
quote:
If you want to get into that, we are going to have to define how small a difference a “strain” is.
I agree, but if there are two versions of the virus having markedly different morbidity/mortality rates, then it would seem that calling them different strains would be reasonable.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:31 am to wdhalgren
Congress just reached a deal on $7.6 billion dollar funding for this, vote expected later today.
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:42 am to TnMountaineer
quote:
Read this today about the New Hampshire case:
8:19 a.m. New Hampshire's 1st patient told to stay isolated but went to event instead, officials say
The first confirmed case of the novel coronavirus in New Hampshire is a hospital employee who went to an event despite being told to stay isolated, officials said.
Can we enact a law to where we can kill people like this?
What's her story? I don't think there's a coincidence here. She's a hospital employee.....who did she get the virus from? Something tells me she's not really the first case in NH....
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:43 am to wdhalgren
quote:
If there are two strains
Could also explain earlier reports of "reinfection". Perhaps people experiencing this were simply catching the other strain?
Posted on 3/4/20 at 11:52 am to MadDogs
quote:
think the killing is only for when they leave home when they are told not to.
This.
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