re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

quote:

---

Although he did confuse specific and sensitive, which is understandable since he's drunk too.

---

From what I understand the CDC or FDA wanted a more specific test. They were worried other coronaviruses would give a positive test.

But maybe im remembering that wrong because it never made sense to me. I would sacrifice specificity for sensitivity in this situation.

quote:

---

I said the average poster ... normal Dudes

---

No one who posts on this board is normal.

Well that’s encouraging

Global mortality rate currently 3.4% LINK

His account of the ICU status is accurate. The average American that isn’t in a hospital frequently just assumes we have open beds, and can’t imagine a scenario where in America you can’t get the care you need.

And that’s just a getting a value using a calculation of dead so far with total infected so far. If the infection stopped today and we could play the 40k cases out that haven’t officially recovered yet, it would be higher.

See China for how their “mortality rate” has “risen” over the last week.

Of course we all recognize we aren’t capturing the true number of infected. Or the true number of dead for the matter. But obviously the true number of infected will always going to be the hardest to capture.

Granted there’s no need for me to state this. It’s been mentioned here before. Just want to reiterate since another mortality rate has been mentioned with no real context

Also, to the point previously made about already full hospitals and ICU’s...

As this becomes more widespread, medical systems will be overwhelmed, health care access will be limited. This will increase mortality rates. This happened in China and will happen in other countries that have widespread outbreaks.

It’s one thing to have 100 cases in a major US city with 20 patients needing hospitalization and only losing 3.4 of those patients. But a whole other issue to have a major US city with 100,000 cases with 20,000 people needing hospitalization, which can’t be done. So you expect to lose many more than 3.4%

Edited assumptions to reflect WHO’s current categorization of cases. 80% mild. 20% severe to critical.

quote:

---

His account of the ICU status is accurate. The average American that isn’t in a hospital frequently just assumes we have open beds, and can’t imagine a scenario where in America you can’t get the care you need.

---

2 years ago we handled an extra ~25,000 deaths and who knows how many ICU visits than we're on pace for this year from the flu. I'd like to know how we handled it. I'm being serious. I don't recall overrun hospital stories two years ago. Perhaps someone can educate me.

Latest Carl Goldman blog

quote:

---

We are now down to 11 quarantined at Nebraska Medicine. My wife and three others have been released. Two, including Jeri, never picked up the coronavirus, COVID-19. The other two made it through three straight 24-hour periods of having negative tests.

My test today came out positive. I’m hopeful because my throat swab came out negative. It’s a good sign the virus is beginning to leave my body. My next test will be on Wednesday. I get to wait 48 hours between positive tests.

---

quote:

---

We now have six deaths from the senior facility in Washington state and six passenger deaths from the Diamond Princess. The virus is tragic. However, statistics are showing 98 percent of the cases are like mine. It’s like having a very minor cold.

The other day, I incorrectly reported regular flu outbreaks to have a higher mortality rate. I was wrong. While many more people have died this year from the common flu, the mortality percentage is much lower. I believe it is 0.1 percent.

---

And this leads me into some disease modeling news:
2019-nCoV: preliminary estimates of the confirmed-case-fatality-ratio and infection-fatality-ratio, and initial pandemic risk assessment

quote:

---

With this additional adjustment and using the same methodology and data from the original version of this report, the corrected estimate of the infection-fatality-ratio (IFR) is 0.94 (0.37, 2.9) percent.

---

And here is a epidemiologic study of the first 18 Singapore patients:
Epidemiologic Features and Clinical Course of Patients Infected With SARS-CoV-2 in Singapore

quote:

---

Conclusions and Relevance
Among the first 18 patients diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Singapore, clinical presentation was frequently a mild respiratory tract infection. Some patients required supplemental oxygen and had variable clinical outcomes following treatment with an antiretroviral agent.

---

quote:

---

Clinical features are summarized in the Table. Fever (13 [72%]), cough (15 [83%]), and sore throat (11 [61%]) were common symptoms. Rhinorrhea was infrequent (1 [6%]), while 6 patients (33%) had an abnormal chest radiograph finding or lung crepitations. No patients presented with a severe acute respiratory distress syndrome, and only 1 required immediate supplemental oxygen. Lymphopenia (<1.1 ×109/L) was present in 7 of 16 patients (39%) and an elevated C-reactive protein level (>20 mg/L) in 6 of 16 (38%), while kidney function remained normal.

The clinical course was uncomplicated for 12 patients (67%), but 6 patients (33%) desaturated and required supplemental oxygen (Figure 1). Chest radiographs showed no pulmonary opacities at presentation in 12 patients (67%) and remained clear throughout the acute illness in 9 (50%). Three patients with initially normal chest radiograph findings developed bilateral diffuse airspace opacities; of these, 2 had been persistently febrile for more than 1 week. Two individuals (11%) required admission to the intensive care unit because of increasing supplemental oxygen requirements, and 1 (6%) required mechanical ventilation. No concomitant bacterial or viral infections were detected, and there were no deaths as of February 25, 2020.

---

quote:

---

You were missed in your absence brother.

---

, I bet. I've been tackling a list of honey-dos since Friday. Probably won't be contributing (I'm sure some would day that's the wrong word) much again until Sunday at the earliest.