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Message

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:06 am to
Posted by Dominate308
South Florida
Member since Jan 2013
2895 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:06 am to
I’m gonna take rainy day fund but instead of buying supplies, I’m buying Amazon stock.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46369 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:08 am to
quote:

We have already had several schools in Texas close because of the flu. Nobody freaked out.

Frisco ISD sent an email to parent yesterday basically saying there are no cases in our district, describing the products used to disinfect the school already bc of of flu season and basically saying calm the f down until there’s a local case and they will keep us posted. Guess they were getting slammed with parents calling and emailing.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:10 am to
quote:

Yeah - they do not live in a crappy country


I can tell you have thought about this very deeply.

South Korea has already run 70,000 tests. Our tests were flawed at first and we MAY have testing next week in Hawaii which is one of the most at risk areas.
Posted by Lsut81
Member since Jun 2005
85147 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:12 am to
quote:

as I've pointed out many times in this thread, any attempts to frame it as anything less than apocalyptic are met with quite a bit of criticism.


You don’t say...
Posted by Volvagia
Fort Worth
Member since Mar 2006
53483 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:13 am to
quote:



We have already had several schools in Texas close because of the flu. Nobody freaked out.



If you don’t think people won’t react differently here you are either in denial, crazy, or just don’t understand people.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
25833 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:15 am to
quote:

How is a graph fear mongering?



You are really going to carry the banner for this.

We wish you the best in trying yell fire in a theater.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:20 am to
Who is panicking? I haven’t seen a single person “panic” yet. The discussion of possible outcomes on a sports message board is not panic. Stop being hyperbolic, and be honest that it makes you feel better to think of yourself as the calm person in the room.

We are discussing data and ideas here. That’s all. Everyone will have a different opinion.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
25833 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:21 am to
quote:

South Korea has already run 70,000 tests.


I may be doing my math wrong, but I think the South Korean mortality rate is 0.5% so far.

That number will decrease as more healthier people get the virus.

NYT says the flu mortality rate in the USA is around 0.1%
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
23046 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:22 am to
quote:

Stop being hyperbolic

That graph you posted was hyperbolic
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21551 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:22 am to
Some quotes from the WHO report on China:

quote:

In the face of a previously unknown virus, China has rolled out perhaps the most
ambitious, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history.


quote:

Achieving China’s exceptional coverage with and adherence to these containment
measures has only been possible due to the deep commitment of the Chinese people
to collective action in the face of this common threat.


quote:

The COVID-19 virus is a new pathogen that is highly contagious, can spread quickly,
and must be considered capable of causing enormous health, economic and societal
impacts in any setting. It is not SARS and it is not influenza.


quote:

COVID-19 is not SARS and it is not influenza. It is a new virus with its own
characteristics.


quote:

The COVID-19 virus is unique among
human coronaviruses in its combination of high transmissibility, substantial fatal
outcomes in some high-risk groups, and ability to cause huge societal and economic
disruption.


quote:

Much of the global community is not yet ready, in mindset and materially, to
implement the measures that have been employed to contain COVID-19 in China.
These are the only measures that are currently proven to interrupt or minimize
transmission chains in humans. Fundamental to these measures is extremely
proactive surveillance to immediately detect cases, very rapid diagnosis and
immediate case isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, and an
exceptionally high degree of population understanding and acceptance of these
measures.



LINK

Posted by chimesstreet
Bucks County, PA
Member since Jan 2008
1846 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:23 am to
quote:

I don't think you paid attention to the press conference because he mentioned both the "local" numbers and the "imported" numbers of the people we repatriated.



It took a day to respond, because I was on the road for work yesterday. Here is the transcript from the Feb 26 press conference to which I was referring. From White House website.

President Trump said:
"We — we’re ready to adapt and we’re ready to do whatever we have to as the disease spreads, if it spreads. As most of you know, the — the level that we’ve had in our country is very low, and those people are getting better, or we think that in almost all cases they’re better, or getting. We have a total of 15. We took in some from Japan — you heard about that — because they’re American citizens, and they’re in quarantine. And they’re getting better too.

But we felt we had an obligation to do that. It could have been as many as 42. And we found that we were — it was just an obligation we felt that we had. We could have left them, and that would have been very bad — very bad, I think — of American people. And they’re recovering.

Of the 15 people — the “original 15,” as I call them — 8 of them have returned to their homes, to stay in their homes until fully recovered. One is in the hospital and five have fully recovered. And one is, we think, in pretty good shape and it’s in between hospital and going home.

So we have a total of — but we have a total of 15 people, and they’re in a process of recovering, with some already having fully recovered."

President Trump clearly says a total of 15 several times. No where in his remarks does he say other imported numbers. So I guess we listened to different briefings.

Could you please share the link to where he breaks down imported numbers? I would appreciate it.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:30 am to
quote:

may be doing my math wrong, but I think the South Korean mortality rate is 0.5% so far. That number will decrease as more healthier people get the virus. NYT says the flu mortality rate in the USA is around 0.1%


That’s great if true. That’s a much higher flu mortality rate than I’ve seen before at 1 in every 1,000 cases.

The book isn’t closed on South Korea they are running out of hospital beds fast and the virus isn’t slowing down.

I’ve said from the beginning this virus isn’t dangerous if it doesn’t overwhelm the system. When it overwhelms the system it has the ability to raise mortality rates to around 2% like we saw in Wuhan.

I still believe the biggest inconvenience to us will be potential shutdowns of normal life in certain outbreak areas that are starting to overwhelm the system.

If you want to call that “panic”, so be it.
Posted by Dominate308
South Florida
Member since Jan 2013
2895 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:30 am to
When I see government checks start piling up in mailboxes because the persons of leisure are to sick to retrieve them, I will panic.
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11824 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:31 am to
quote:

COVID-19 is not SARS and it is not influenza. It is a new virus with its own
characteristics.


quote:

The COVID-19 virus is unique among
human coronaviruses in its combination of high transmissibility, substantial fatal
outcomes in some high-risk groups, and ability to cause huge societal and economic
disruption.


Good thing we were going all willy nilly over here. Not testing people. Just so relaxed about it all.
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:40 am to
quote:

As the highly infectious coronavirus jumped from China to country after country in January and February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lost valuable weeks that could have been used to track its possible spread in the United States because it insisted upon devising its own test.

The federal agency shunned the World Health Organization test guidelines used by other countries and set out to create a more complicated test of its own that could identify a range of similar viruses. But when it was sent to labs across the country in the first week of February, it didn’t work as expected. The CDC test correctly identified COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus. But in all but a handful of state labs, it falsely flagged the presence of the other viruses in harmless samples.

As a result, until Wednesday the CDC and the Food and Drug Administration only allowed those state labs to use the test — a decision with potentially significant consequences. The lack of a reliable test prevented local officials from taking a crucial first step in coping with a possible outbreak — “surveillance testing” of hundreds of people in possible hotspots. Epidemiologists in other countries have used this sort of testing to track the spread of the disease before large numbers of people turn up at hospitals.


quote:

The CDC announced on Feb. 14 that surveillance testing would begin in five key cities, New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle. That effort has not yet begun.

On Wednesday, under pressure from health experts and public officials, the CDC and the FDA told labs they no longer had to worry about the portion of the test intended “for the universal detection of SARS-like coronaviruses.” After three weeks of struggle, they could now use the test purely to check for the presence of COVID-19.


quote:

It remains unclear whether the CDC’s move on Wednesday will resolve all of the problems around the test. Some local labs have raised concerns about whether the CDC’s test is fully reliable for detecting COVID-19.

In New York, scientists at both the city’s and state’s laboratories have seen false positives even when following the CDC’s latest directions, according to a person familiar with their discussions.

“Testing for coronavirus is not available yet in New York City,” city Department of Health spokeswoman Stephanie Buhle said in an email late Thursday. “The kits that were sent to us have demonstrated performance issues and cannot be relied upon to provide an accurate result.”
This post was edited on 2/28/20 at 8:44 am
Posted by lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
11824 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:41 am to
what a shiteshow.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77273 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:45 am to
The CDC dropped the ball hard.

They started by having a random individual calling in to the news and inciting panic.

Then we find out that they shite the bed at every level.

Just when you think that there are agencies of the Federal Government that are largely free of incompetence, they go and prove me wrong.

Seems like the CDC needs to have its house cleaned out as well.
This post was edited on 2/28/20 at 8:45 am
Posted by WaWaWeeWa
Member since Oct 2015
15714 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:46 am to
quote:

Doctors at the University of California, Davis Medical Center, where the patient is being treated, said testing was delayed for nearly a week because the patient didn’t fit restrictive federal criteria, which limits tests only to symptomatic patients who recently traveled to China.

“Upon admission, our team asked public health officials if this case could be COVID-19,” UC Davis said in a statement. UC Davis officials said because neither the California Department of Public Health nor Sacramento County could test for the virus, they asked the CDC to do so. But, the officials said, “since the patient did not fit the existing CDC criteria for COVID-19, a test was not immediately administered.”



Posted by Ronaldo Burgundiaz
NWA
Member since Jan 2012
6793 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:46 am to

That graph is pure fear mongering.

That graph purposefully selected the worst outbreak of covid with milder outbreaks. It chose Mexico for H1N1.

I've already posted the worldwide 2.5 month cases for both H1N1 and Covid they are about equal in number of cases. Covid does have a higher "kill rate", but the it's mostly in people with health complications, such as elderly. H1N1 targeted healthy, young people.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
25833 posts
Posted on 2/28/20 at 8:48 am to
quote:

That’s a much higher flu mortality rate than I’ve seen before at 1 in every 1,000 cases.


Well it was NYT, so probably fake news.

Looks like US flu this year has infected 15 million and killed 8000+. That is a lot less than .1%

quote:

The book isn’t closed on South Korea they are running out of hospital beds fast and the virus isn’t slowing down.


That is fear mongering

The virus has slowed down in China, it will slow down quicker in South Korea. SK just got hit. Bed shortage is because they are trying to admit everyone who has a cough.
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