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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:54 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:54 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Latest CDC global map of the spread. It’s on a roll.
quote:
Locations with Confirmed COVID-19 Cases China Hong Kong Macau Taiwan Afghanistan Algeria Australia Austria Bahrain Belgium Brazil Cambodia Canada Croatia Denmark Estonia Egypt Finland France Georgia Germany Greece India Iran Iraq Israel Italy Japan Kuwait Lebanon Malaysia Nepal North Macedonia Norway Oman Pakistan Philippines Romania Russia Sri Lanka Singapore Spain Sweden Switzerland Thailand The Republic of Korea United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Vietnam
LINK
2
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:55 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Like I said, the data is incomplete.
The death rate lags behind the infection rate. The average ICU course for this virus is 10-14 days. The average time for young patients will be even longer as they are kept on ventilation and heroic attempts such as ECMO are attempted. I hope you have a more in depth analysis than that
It will become more clear over time though.
We don't have data in regards to how many patients are admitted to the ICU or require significant interventions.
The numbers will show a trend once the data is broadened.
The death rates may spike and the trend will start to show that it is closer to what you suspect, but there the trend is showing a spread rate anywhere from 20-40% increase in infected daily.
I mean, the deaths would have to increase by 37 to get near to 2% of the 2472 infected that there will be tomorrow. (Obtained that number by multiplying 1.4x 1766, 1.4 being the highest jump in increase over the data available on that graph).
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:59 pm to Scruffy
Question for you on this graph Scruffy. Are the cases tested both symptomatic and asymptomatic? IE, you have a symptomatic patient come in, tests positive, so they reach out to that patients immediate contacts (family etc) and test them, getting several positives who are currently asymptomatic as they are earlier in the virus' cycle (iirc reports say detecting in the asymptomatic phase can produce hits).
If that is happening that would tend to drive mortality rate down in the initial run up/spike of cases, and then the rate would begin to catch back up as there currently isn't an anti viral treatment, just symptom management so every disease case has to essentially run its course with no way to short circuit the cycle.
I agree on the data, if China's reporting of health stats is anything like their reporting of economic data then there is no relying on them for analysis. A place like SK where care is good and the detection and response rate seem to be aggressive should really show us what to expect here in the next month or 2.
If that is happening that would tend to drive mortality rate down in the initial run up/spike of cases, and then the rate would begin to catch back up as there currently isn't an anti viral treatment, just symptom management so every disease case has to essentially run its course with no way to short circuit the cycle.
I agree on the data, if China's reporting of health stats is anything like their reporting of economic data then there is no relying on them for analysis. A place like SK where care is good and the detection and response rate seem to be aggressive should really show us what to expect here in the next month or 2.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:00 pm to Scruffy
No offense but you have a pretty elementary understanding of the statistics. You are correct that tomorrow the death rate won’t jump proportionally to the infection rate but in two weeks it may be at that point. In addition, once the infection rate peaks then starts to decline the death rate will continue to increase or remain steady for some time. This is basic epidemiology of infectious diseases.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:00 pm to Bullfrog
Would be classic if Americans wanted to flee to Mexico to get away from this thing but came face to face with a wall.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 1:05 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:01 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The cruise ship tested everyone. Half of the patients that tested positive were asymptomatic.
Then you believe the death rate outside cruiseship is far lower than what is being presented now since there are so many cases that don't even have symptoms. Therefore, they are not going to doctor and getting tested.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:03 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Then you believe the death rate outside cruiseship is far lower than what is being presented now since there are so many cases that don't even have symptoms. Therefore, they are not going to doctor and getting tested.
Correct. I’ve already said that. Even accounting for that it should be significantly worse than the flu. But no where near apocalyptic. The key is if we can prevent huge spikes in cases so the system functions well.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:03 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Italy has about 650 infections and 15 deaths, so a 2% death rate. Given that it spreads just as easily as the flu, which has a much lower death rate, how can this not be a serious concern?
650 confirmed cases. Which doesn’t equal infections. If you use flu assumptions for this virus.....actually let’s cut it in half because of the viral severity/hysteria, that approximates to around 6500 actual infections.
That works out to be a mortality rate around 10x that of the flu.
Which, again, was about where it’s been all along, questionable Chinese numbers aside.
A concern? Definitely
A serious concern? Not as much.
And certainly not a end of the species event like some people suggested.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 1:04 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:04 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
No offense but you have a pretty elementary understanding of the statistics
You're a condescending dick. Either spout your credentials or take a hike. Your data is no more accurate than anyone else's which is why until we have better inputs, the output is flawed and questionable.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:06 pm to Oates Mustache
Djia down another 2.3%. I guesss the briefing yesterday didnt calm any fears.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:07 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
Either spout your credentials
But he doesn’t want a dick measuring contest
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:08 pm to Bullfrog
quote:
Latest CDC global map of the spread. It’s on a roll.
Guarantee you it is all over Africa by now.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:09 pm to Oates Mustache
I’m a cardiologist at a medium sized teaching institution. Far from an expert in infectious disease but I have a basic understanding of how to interpret scientific data. I wasn’t trying to be condescending I’m just surprised that he isn’t accounting for what is a very clear trend in data like this.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:10 pm to WaWaWeeWa
California's Governor said they're monitoring 8,400 people for the virus.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:11 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Sure.
No offense but you have a pretty elementary understanding of the statistics.
quote:It also may not.
You are correct that tomorrow the death rate won’t jump proportionally to the infection rate but in two weeks it may be at that point.
I mean, everyone is basing their predictions off of the current trends which 1) involves testing the very sick and 2) doesn't involve testing large numbers of people.
The only point that I am trying to make is that we don't have the data and I am simply making my assumption that 2% predicted deaths will be an over-estimation.
My prediction is more along the lines of influenza, maybe slightly higher.
quote:I mean, everyone is basing a 2% rate off of data involving heavily skewed population age-wise.
In addition, once the infection rate peaks then starts to decline the death rate will continue to increase or remain steady for some time. This is basic epidemiology of infectious diseases.
We have zero info of the SK data outside of deaths and infection rate.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:13 pm to WaWaWeeWa
I am pretty dumb about all of this, but some have mentioned the summer heat and humidity may assist with spread. It is currently summer in the southern hemisphere, are they experiencing the spread of this virus? If so wouldn't that hint that we may not get a break once summer time hits North America?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:15 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Rad. I did cath lab for about a decade (along with ICU and trauma). Cardiac is my love. I am doing neuro intervention now. I appreciate your input as well as Scruffy’s. We don’t all have to agree but the exchange of information is healthy. Things in Sac are getting a little surreal. I like being able to hear others opinions so I can form mine.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:15 pm to RougeDawg
quote:Probably. The military and dictators ain’t got time for no COVID-19 BS.
Guarantee you it is all over Africa by now.
China is working on antigen tests to get better numbers on how many people were infected but their immune system ramped up and handled business.
So it’ll be quite a while before we get true mortality numbers.
IMHO the testing for it is not happening in real time. At this stage, it’s more stop testing for it and just treat as if they have it.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:15 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The only point that I am trying to make is that we don't have the data
I agree
quote:
I am simply making my assumption that 2% predicted deaths will be an over-estimation.
My prediction is more along the lines of influenza, maybe slightly higher.
I think that’s much more reasonable of a prediction. Sorry if I misunderstood you, but you originally said it would be less deadly than the flu which is what started this entire conversation. I’ll move on.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 1:16 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Hmmm...
Sorry if I misunderstood you, but you originally said it would be less deadly than the flu which is what started this entire conversation. I’ll move on.
I have a short attention span. I do work in an ER.
Oh, and my stance wasn't that there would be an additional 37 deaths tomorrow in order to get that 2%.
It was mainly that we would have to see a significant increase in the death rate to generate, which the data may begin to show, but isn't there yet.
That is why I am so interested in the SK data.
I could have phrased that better.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 1:19 pm
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