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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:18 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:18 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I’m not getting into a pissing match
Yet you threw it out there that you were better qualified than Scuffy
My appeal to authority? I just thought it was funny as frick that you pulled the same shite that you’ve done over and over in this thread... Changed the game mid-discussion to try to fit your narrative.
I’ve never claimed to be an expert, however, now you have, so spill it... What makes you so much better than us peasants in this thread that you know what’s going to happen? And frick, I hope you’re not my doctor, because I’d hate for her to be wishing for a worst case scenario. But, you’re prob better than her, soooo
3
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:20 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
Italy has about 650 infections and 15 deaths, so a 2% death rate
Italy just updated data with 2 additional deaths, total now 17.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:21 pm to Lsut81
quote:
because I’d hate for her to be wishing for a worst case scenario
Why is it the assumption of those in here that anyone is wishing for the worst case scenario, if this evaporates into the air and is gone tomorrow wonderful. The issue though is we are clearly not ahead of this thing. The current CDC guidelines are not keeping this out of the country, there is no pre-testing and screening is hit or miss.
With that said, the questions left are severity, and contagiousness as it's a pretty foregone conclusion it's either already here or coming shortly.
For it to be spreading the way it is it's clearly damn contagious, and we still don't have a consensus on how severe this is.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:23 pm to GetCocky11
quote:
I think he saying that the data isn't there.
I get that the data we have could be better, but all the data we do have, which is a significant amount, is showing something like a 2% death rate, right?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:23 pm to Mizzoufan26
quote:
Why is it the assumption of those in here that anyone is wishing for the worst case scenario
because some seem to believe all bad news, but are skeptical or ignore all good news
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:25 pm to Lsut81
I’m not sure what your problem is but I don’t think I have ever said that I know what’s going to happen.
You aren’t really open to having your mind changed because you have already taken such an extreme position as being the flag bearer of anti-panic. So just move along, post some relevant new information, or GFY
You aren’t really open to having your mind changed because you have already taken such an extreme position as being the flag bearer of anti-panic. So just move along, post some relevant new information, or GFY
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:25 pm to Jon Ham
quote:Well, another concern in regards to this current situation is both availability of testing and the frequency of its use.
Italy has about 650 infections and 15 deaths, so a 2% death rate.
Flu is actually a great example to use as a reference.
100s of millions of flu tests are performed each year. This results in a high number of flu detection and, thus, shows the true fatality rate of influenza each season.
They aren’t testing every person who walks in at this time, or locations don’t have the capabilities to test.
The reason you see such a high fatality rate at the start of an illness like this is because we don’t have a definitive number of true infected or the capabilities to test a large number of people.
This results in the test being run on the most ill and therefore skews the mortality rate.
The most accurate data that we will see will likely come out of SK since they have begun to test a large number of people.
The number may hold at 2%, but I don’t suspect that will be the case.
Remember, the most common symptoms are general cold symptoms and possibly flu-like.
Again, with more definitive data, my opinion may change, but the numbers are too small or the reporting sources are too questionable to trust at this time.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:28 pm to Jon Ham
quote:It is still skewed at this time because, due to the availability of the testing, they seem to be testing the most sick patients.
I get that the data we have could be better, but all the data we do have, which is a significant amount, is showing something like a 2% death rate, right?
Unlike the flu, not every person who shows up with cough, congestion, and fever is being tested for Coronavirus yet.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:29 pm to Scruffy
Detection probability skews stuff. Scruffy is correct.
Can we get more ninjas fighting rabid virus spreading dog gifs?
Can we get more ninjas fighting rabid virus spreading dog gifs?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:30 pm to Scruffy
quote:
The number may hold at 2%, but I don’t suspect that will be the case.
I agree but I also don’t see a scenario driving the mortality rate down to season flu levels.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:31 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
So just move along, post some relevant new information, or GFY
What did you say earlier?
“Nice melt”.
And what extreme position have I taken? That I don’t jump into the doom and gloom camp? That I took a wait and see approach? That I wanted to see it impact 1st world countries and those that aren’t normally susceptible to the flu before I raised any concerns?
I was the one that posted about the Korean attendant being in LAX and said that LA may be in a bad spot, so I’m more than open..
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:32 pm to Lsut81
quote:
I’m not getting into a pissing match
Yet you threw it out there that you were better qualified than Scuffy
Obviously stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:33 pm to Scruffy
That makes sense. Surely there are predictive models that can give a death rate estimate taking into account that only the most sick are getting tested. I wonder what those models show.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:35 pm to Jon Ham
quote:
I wonder what those models show.
Probably show a wide range of possible answers. Too wide to really help anything.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:37 pm to Jon Ham
T
That’s why a lot of us are paying attention to the cruise ship. Every symptomatic person is tested. Still may be a month before all that shakes out though.
quote:
That makes sense. Surely there are predictive models that can give a death rate estimate taking into account that only the most sick are getting tested. I wonder what those models show.
That’s why a lot of us are paying attention to the cruise ship. Every symptomatic person is tested. Still may be a month before all that shakes out though.
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:38 pm to Scruffy
The cruise ship tested everyone. Half of the patients that tested positive were asymptomatic.
That’s the best data we have so far of asymptomatic cases. If there is better evidence of an estimation of asymptomatic cases I’d like to see it or tell me how it will be done.
The counter argument to the asymptomatic rate (which will definitely lower the mortality rate if accurate) is that there are patients recently diagnosed that will turn critical and die.
That’s the best data we have so far of asymptomatic cases. If there is better evidence of an estimation of asymptomatic cases I’d like to see it or tell me how it will be done.
The counter argument to the asymptomatic rate (which will definitely lower the mortality rate if accurate) is that there are patients recently diagnosed that will turn critical and die.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:38 pm to MrLarson
quote:I’ve heard masks are running low and good luck getting any N95 level masks.
This is for construction supply so maybe they've made all their inventory for Hospitals?
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:40 pm to Jon Ham
Look, if we look at the graph if SK cases and deaths, you can already see the situation I am talking about.
Feb 22, you had 2 deaths w/ 433 cases, 0.46%.
Feb 23, 0.8%.
Feb 24, 0.84%.
Feb 25, 0.97%
Feb 26, 0.94%
Feb 27, 0.73%
You have an initial spike, but when your infected cases are increasing at such a rate, but your deaths aren't, the % mortality will start to decline.
Unless there is a spike in deaths that will show a significant increase in the deaths following along with a significant increase in spread, the percentage will continue to decline simply because the spread will outpace the deaths.
Like I said before, the data isn't sufficient at this time, but if the trend that is already present continues, the mortality will decline.
Feb 22, you had 2 deaths w/ 433 cases, 0.46%.
Feb 23, 0.8%.
Feb 24, 0.84%.
Feb 25, 0.97%
Feb 26, 0.94%
Feb 27, 0.73%
You have an initial spike, but when your infected cases are increasing at such a rate, but your deaths aren't, the % mortality will start to decline.
Unless there is a spike in deaths that will show a significant increase in the deaths following along with a significant increase in spread, the percentage will continue to decline simply because the spread will outpace the deaths.
Like I said before, the data isn't sufficient at this time, but if the trend that is already present continues, the mortality will decline.
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 12:49 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:43 pm to Scruffy
The death rate lags behind the infection rate.
The average ICU course for this virus is 10-14 days. The average time for young patients will be even longer as they are kept on ventilation and heroic attempts such as ECMO are attempted.
I hope you have a more in depth analysis than that
That being said, I agree with your general statement that the mortality may decline but I disagree that it will be anywhere near the flu. That’s assuming the system isn’t overwhelmed, in which case the mortality will go up (this has already been proven)
The average ICU course for this virus is 10-14 days. The average time for young patients will be even longer as they are kept on ventilation and heroic attempts such as ECMO are attempted.
I hope you have a more in depth analysis than that
That being said, I agree with your general statement that the mortality may decline but I disagree that it will be anywhere near the flu. That’s assuming the system isn’t overwhelmed, in which case the mortality will go up (this has already been proven)
This post was edited on 2/27/20 at 12:50 pm
Posted on 2/27/20 at 12:54 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
I have just as much training and more experience than him
Normally, I have to pay for a ticket to the circus and smell elephant shite to see a clown show like this one.
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