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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/24/20 at 4:33 pm to ctiger69
Posted on 2/24/20 at 4:33 pm to ctiger69
quote:
Current Coronavirus deaths world wide= 2,628
Flu deaths in the United States two years ago= 80,000
2 years ago it was 61k on 45 million estimated cases.
Mortality rate for the flu 0.1%.
Mortality rate for Coronavirus??? (could be 1-10%).
Current estimates for mortality rate of the Coronavirus ranges widely, but 1% is probably close to the lower bound in China with estimates as high as 11% based on limited case studies (reality is it won't be that high in current form in the West - or close to that).
2
Posted on 2/24/20 at 4:46 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
Mortality rate for Coronavirus??? (could be 1-10%).
Current estimates for mortality rate of the Coronavirus ranges widely, but 1% is probably close to the lower bound in China with estimates as high as 11% based on limited case studies (reality is it won't be that high in current form in the West - or close to that).
Even the highest rates tend to stay below 4%.
Got this LINK from a MedCram video. It has some charts that show CFR based on different lag rates.
Edit:
And here is some info about Italy:
LINK
quote:
“The peak in Italy is partly due to all the tests being done,” said Roberta Siliquini, a former president of Italy’s higher health council. “We have found positive cases in people who probably had few or no symptoms and who may have overcome the virus without even knowing it.”
And I've seen that 3 of the deaths were 62 years old, 77 years old and 80 years old (and there are reports that all victims were elderly or had health problems).
It sucks, but not out of line with illnesses or apocalyptic to society.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 4:52 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:00 pm to bbrownso
quote:
It sucks, but not out of line with illnesses or apocalyptic to society.
That's pretty much it.
It's not that coronavirus is some viral purge - it's more the fact that because it's new there is a hope we can stop it from ever becoming an annual illness.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:01 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
How about the South Korean church?
Or the jails that have near 100% infection
It’s more contagious than the flu per a doctor in the NYT this morning
You’re a fricking hack as usual... move the goalposts and change the statement after I respond in an effort to try to make my statement wrong.
He stated it was highly contagious as seen by the spread on the ship... I countered with that being a terrible benchmark, showing cruise ships spread virus all the time... I even admitted this was obviously contagious, just not to use the cruise ship
Keep being a little bitch, you’re good at it.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:09 pm to rds dc
New cases coming in from various Middle East countries and it appears that many can be traced back to Iran. So once again, we have official numbers not matching up with what we are seeing in real time. Total infections inside of Iran would probably need to be much higher than what is being reported to generate the number of deaths and exported cases that we are seeing. I'm not claiming conspiracy or cover up but events on the ground in Iran probably caught officials off guard and now they are trying to play catch up.
It doesn't take too much stretching of the imagination to see that we are probably beyond the containment phase.
It doesn't take too much stretching of the imagination to see that we are probably beyond the containment phase.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:19 pm to Jim Rockford
quote:I am in no way qualified to say the following with any certainty, but from what I understand the risk of an airborne HIV style of virus is pretty much nil.
Consider an airborne form of AIDS that takes 10 years to manifest symptoms. That would give ample time for everyone to be exposed before the carriers got too sick to be mobile.
HIV is so resilient because it has an extremely high mutation rate, so it evades the immune system. This is also why it takes so long for symptoms to manifest, I believe. But this quality also makes HIV not very contagious. It takes a relatively large dose to infect someone else.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:22 pm to rds dc
Iran being such an open government should shock no one if they have a tremendous amount of unreported or improperly reported cases.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:22 pm to Lsut81
you sound upset. Maybe you need a break. You jumped all over the guy for saying what you believe was a true statement (the virus is contagious), just because he used a cruise ship example.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 5:26 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:44 pm to bbrownso
quote:
A 17-day-old baby has recovered from the deadly new strain of coronavirus after being born to a patient in the outbreak’s Chinese epicentre.
Xiao Xiao is the youngest in the country to get the all clear, having returned to full health without the help of any medication.
On the day she was born she was transferred to Wuhan Children’s Hospital where she was diagnosed with the strain of coronavirus known as Covid-19.
I couldn't be happier to see this. That is literally the best news one could hope for. Lets pray there are many more to come.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 5:57 pm to CivilTiger83
quote:
2 years ago it was 61k on 45 million estimated cases.
Mortality rate for the flu 0.1%.
Mortality rate for Coronavirus??? (could be 1-10%).
Current estimates for mortality rate of the Coronavirus ranges widely, but 1% is probably close to the lower bound in China with estimates as high as 11% based on limited case studies (reality is it won't be that high in current form in the West - or
2 years ago the estimated death from the flu in the US was 80,000.
As a share of hospitalizations, the regular flu death rate is 8.5 percent to 17 percent, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 6:05 pm to rds dc
quote:
New cases coming in from various Middle East countries and it appears that many can be traced back to Iran. So once again, we have official numbers not matching up with what we are seeing in real time. Total infections inside of Iran would probably need to be much higher than what is being reported to generate the number of deaths and exported cases that we are seeing. I'm not claiming conspiracy or cover up but events on the ground in Iran probably caught officials off guard and now they are trying to play catch up.
It doesn't take too much stretching of the imagination to see that we are probably beyond the containment phase.
I think it's worth remembering how many asymptomatic cases have been found in places like the cruise ship. If that's materializing elsewhere, and if you're possibly contagious while asymptomatic, it helps explain much of the "missing" data.
In other words, it's possible coronavirus is far more spread out and far less severe/deadly than the numbers of confirmed cases would suggest.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 6:55 pm to bbrownso
quote:
And I've seen that 3 of the deaths were 62 years old, 77 years old and 80 years old (and there are reports that all victims were elderly or had health problems).
I wouldn’t get too confident with that. The elderly and immune compromised will be the first to pass away with this virus. Healthier and younger people will tend to lag. It will be a month until we know the mortality numbers in SK.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:02 pm to ctiger69
quote:
2 years ago the estimated death from the flu in the US was 80,000.
As a share of hospitalizations, the regular flu death rate is 8.5 percent to 17 percent, according to the Centers for Disease Control.
The CDC numbers on their website say 61k. Where are you getting your numbers?
Also using the % of hospitalizations is a meaningless metric. What percentage of people are hospitalized with the flu vs the coronavirus? You need a decent estimate of the number of cases vs number of deaths to know the impact.
Do you think China/SK/Iran/Italy are taking drastic measures if they see this as just the flu?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:20 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
you sound upset. Maybe you need a break.
Not upset at all, its the internet... Just calling you a bitch for trying to manipulate responses.
quote:
You jumped all over the guy for saying what you believe was a true statement (the virus is contagious), just because he used a cruise ship example.
God damn, you call that jumping all over a guy?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:23 pm to slackster
quote:
In other words, it's possible coronavirus is far more spread out and far less severe/deadly than the numbers of confirmed cases would suggest.
Watch yourself, going to get the doom and gloom squad up in arms... We can’t have this thing be less deadly than indicated by the shitty data in China.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:28 pm to Korkstand
quote:
HIV is so resilient because it has an extremely high mutation rate, so it evades the immune system. This is also why it takes so long for symptoms to manifest, I believe. But this quality also makes HIV not very contagious. It takes a relatively large dose to infect someone else.
Not quite.
It’s so resilient because it both does a slow burn thus limiting immune responses and because one of the first things it does is incorporaste itself into your chromosomal DNA.
That’s the big difference that sets it apart, and why the few cures that have occurred involved massive irradiation and complete bone marrow transplants.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:37 pm to Volvagia
quote:
Not quite.
It’s so resilient because it both does a slow burn thus limiting immune responses and because one of the first things it does is incorporaste itself into your chromosomal DNA.
That’s the big difference that sets it apart, and why the few cures that have occurred involved massive irradiation and complete bone marrow transplants.
So a couple of questions:
Does it do a "slow burn" because of the high mutation rate?
Is the basic premise correct, that a virus with similar characteristics to HIV (very long time between infection and symptoms) is also likely to be not very contagious?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:45 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Is the basic premise correct, that a virus with similar characteristics to HIV (very long time between infection and symptoms) is also likely to be not very contagious?
HIV works in a completely different way than this virus. It has lag time because it infects and destroys your body’s natural defenses (immune system), then you die of a common infection because your immune system can’t fight it.
It’s relative lack of contagiousness compared to something like coronavirus is due to its mode of transmission. Blood (HIV) vs airborne (coronavirus)
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 7:46 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:55 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 2/24/20 at 7:59 pm to Volvagia
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