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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:00 pm to slackster
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:00 pm to slackster
quote:
In other words, it's possible coronavirus is far more spread out and far less severe/deadly than the numbers of confirmed cases would suggest.
Yea, that scenario is probably a lot more likely than the higher mortality rate scenarios.
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Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:03 pm to Volvagia
I'm kind of a seven on the left and a two on the right right now. I'm getting a little concerned for my toddlers :(
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:04 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Does it do a "slow burn" because of the high mutation rate?
No. Just because it’s the nature of that one virus.
A cold or the flu is an example of something with a high mutation rate
quote:
Is the basic premise correct, that a virus with similar characteristics to HIV (very long time between infection and symptoms) is also likely to be not very contagious?
In very general terms, yes. Fewer symptoms means less immune activity which means less triggering event which means less active virus in bodily fluids.
To stick with the HIV example, after you are infected it “lies low” for a month or so and then goes into over drive to get an upper hand over your immune system.
During this time you are highly infectious.
Once it progresses to the latent phase, with proper treatment the viral load is low enough to make it essentially impossible to infect someone else.
But I’d be leery using HIV as the framework for any generalization. It’s a unique virus that uses an unique pathology. The only other example I can think of that is so well designed to interfere with the immune system is smallpox.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:13 pm to lsu13lsu
I love it when alarmist kooks can’t even get their own story straight to the point that their own links discount the factual claims and he offers no support for his more dubious claim at all (that the US is saturated).
(To be clear, I’m speaking about the guy linked in the tweet)
This is the shite that makes people believe there are people wish casting for this to be bad.
For fricks sake, for all of the shitting in on China in this thread, you buy it as possible they can easily pull of 200k tests while the “dysfunctional US healthcare system” strained to get out 400 and don’t really have the ability for more?
The reason why the numbers are “so good” in the US doesn’t have any insidious spin to it at all. We simply had solid contact tracing of all cases so a broad testing regimen wasn’t needed. It’s not here yet, so no reason to test for it.
(To be clear, I’m speaking about the guy linked in the tweet)
This is the shite that makes people believe there are people wish casting for this to be bad.
For fricks sake, for all of the shitting in on China in this thread, you buy it as possible they can easily pull of 200k tests while the “dysfunctional US healthcare system” strained to get out 400 and don’t really have the ability for more?
The reason why the numbers are “so good” in the US doesn’t have any insidious spin to it at all. We simply had solid contact tracing of all cases so a broad testing regimen wasn’t needed. It’s not here yet, so no reason to test for it.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 8:50 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:18 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Why Numbers Are So Good In USA
In the US, researchers have access to data on influenza like illness that test negative for influenza. The people reviewing that data are not, as of a couple of days ago, seeing anything that suggest that there are significant numbers of undetected COVID19 cases out there. CDC would like to see more actual test results but there is nothing out there suggesting that we are about to see a situation like Iran or Italy (COVID19 diagnoses and deaths on the same day) pop up in a major US city. Iran & Italy both should have noticed an uptick in ILIs 10 - 14 days before actually seeing any deaths from COVID19, based on what we know at this time.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:22 pm to rds dc
The cruise ship group just reported another death bringing the total to 4. There are currently 691 confirmed cases, 4 deaths, 2 recoveries and 35 critical from the cruise ship.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:26 pm to rds dc
2 recoveries out of roughly 700 cases. How long does this thing last for the average person?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:28 pm to Volvagia
I thought Italy had clusters that had no contact. Was that not the case? I also thought there was asymptotic spread?
Posted on 2/24/20 at 8:52 pm to TigerFanatic99
quote:
. I'm getting a little concerned for my toddlers :(
All data is showing that this doesn’t effect young children severely. No toddlers died in the data released by China.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:01 pm to Volvagia
quote:
The reason why the numbers are “so good” in the US doesn’t have any insidious spin to it at all. We simply had solid contact tracing of all cases so a broad testing regimen wasn’t needed. It’s not here yet, so no reason to test for it.
Exactly. And who would be telling all doctors to not test for it? If you had suspected cases of coronavirus doctors would be sounding the alarm. You can’t keep this stuff under wraps even if some entity was suppressing testing. The misinformation out there is crazy.
quote:
There are currently 691 confirmed cases, 4 deaths, 2 recoveries and 35 critical from the cruise ship.
Apparently the patient was 80+. Only 35 critical sounds positive. That’s a much lower percentage then we were hearing out of China. Even in a worse case scenario if all 35 critical cases die we would be looking at a 5.6% case fatality rate. Which isn’t terrible considering the average age of the cruise ship passenger.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 9:18 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:31 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Apparently the patient was 80+
Sounds like it.
quote:
A passenger in his 80s on a cruise ship confirmed to be infected with the new coronavirus was killed in the hospital where he was transported. This is the fourth cruise ship passenger to die.
LINK - Chrome translated (aka I don't speak Japanese)
The third victim from the cruise ship was also an 80 year old man.
quote:
A man in his 80s who was transported to a medical institution on a cruise ship where outbreaks of the new coronavirus were confirmed died on the 23rd. The third person on a cruise ship died.
LINK - Chrome translated
And the first two were also in their 80s.
quote:
Two Japanese men and women in their 80s died on April 20 in a passenger on a cruise ship where outbreaks of the new coronavirus were confirmed. This is the first death of a new coronavirus infected passenger and crew on a cruise ship.
LINK - Chrome translated
On the flipside:
Japan: The 691 people from the “Diamond Princess” cruise ship are listed separately and they’re not included in the Japanese government’s official count. 380 were asymptomatic. Fourteen of them are U.S. citizens whose test results weren’t known until they were taken off the ship.
Latest blog from one of the American confirmed cases:
LINK
He said it was like the flu where he had a fever, felt fatigue, and had a cough. He's been isolated and basically has been drinking gatorade but no real other treatment.
From part 8:
quote:
Despite all the monitors attached to me, there is no medication being given. My only medication is (drum roll, please) Gatorade. This virus is so unknown, there is no cure except to allow it to work its way through my system. There are no antibiotics, no IVs, not even nose drops, just Gatorade.
I have a rainbow of Gatorade bottles. I was given a straw without asking. I don’t use it. It sits next to my bed as my souvenir. In California I might get arrested for stashing that straw, I kid you not. In Nebraska having a straw is still legal.
As I sipped on my orange Gatorade, some spilled on my sheets. It is now a dried orange stain creating an interesting pattern under my body. I am thankful I didn’t spill the red Gatorade. My bio-containment team already has enough challenges.
Seriously, go back and read his blogs; it's a bit comforting if you're a bit anxious.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 9:40 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:43 pm to Malik Agar
quote:
2 recoveries out of roughly 700 cases. How long does this thing last for the average person?
I want to say that something like 50%+ of those cases never even had symptoms, a la, no recovery needed.
The Germany case that spread to coworkers saw recoveries within a week for all involved.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:46 pm to bbrownso
quote:
I have a rainbow of Gatorade bottles. I was given a straw without asking. I don’t use it. It sits next to my bed as my souvenir. In California I might get arrested for stashing that straw, I kid you not. In Nebraska having a straw is still legal.
As I sipped on my orange Gatorade, some spilled on my sheets. It is now a dried orange stain creating an interesting pattern under my body. I am thankful I didn’t spill the red Gatorade. My bio-containment team already has enough challenges.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:54 pm to Malik Agar
The irony is that we almost certainly know more about the coronavirus in Iran than the Iranians know. Because, you know, they don't exactly have free flow of information there.
Tehran is cold and dry. And very crowded. And very poor. Basically perfect laboratory conditions for this virus to spread until June or July. It is going to curb stomp that place.
Tehran is cold and dry. And very crowded. And very poor. Basically perfect laboratory conditions for this virus to spread until June or July. It is going to curb stomp that place.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:58 pm to slackster
He's an entertaining fella.
From his latest blog:
From his latest blog:
quote:
With each meal, I am given a straw. None of my nurses believe me when I tell them each straw handed to me would be a $1,000 fine in California. They look at me in disbelief. I’ve now stashed over a dozen straws, certain jail time if I were recuperating in the Golden State.
In San Francisco, they have now banned paper cups along with straws. The city can’t keep poop off their streets, but if I want a venti at Starbucks I’ll have to walk in with a canteen.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:13 pm to slackster
quote:
want to say that something like 50%+ of those cases never even had symptoms, a la, no recovery needed.
They could also be waiting for a certain number of negative tests after a defined time period to consider it a “recovery” even though those patients may have no symptoms. Either way it’s not too concerning considering the low number of critical patients
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:15 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Why Numbers Are So Good In USA
If this was referrring to any other country, folks would be accusing them of a coverrup, or of having such a broken down health care system that they couldn't afford to test. When the US runs a handful of tests in the face of a potential global pandemic, they say it's because we're so much more advanced in our understanding of disease we don't need to do definitive testing.
At this point it seems more likely that someone has decided we might be better off not actually knowing how many undiagnosed cases of Covid-19 there are in this country. Just let them go undiagnosed and hope they fade into the flu data without making much of a blip. Do a few hundred tests and tell everyone we're on top of the situation. Like they say, ignorance is bliss.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 11:17 pm
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:23 pm to wdhalgren
Is everything a coverup on TigerDroppings these days? For fricks sake.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 11:31 pm to GeorgeTheGreek
quote:
Is everything a coverup on TigerDroppings these days? For fricks sake.
You can call it a coverup, complacency, incompetence, or whatever you please. If you think it's a coincidence that countries running more tests are finding more cases and more deaths, you're naive or worse. Of course we're missing signficant numbers of cases; it's a contagious disease and it's spreading around the globe.
The US either has either chosen not to test to avoid a panic, or we don't have the ability. Or, if you're gullible, we're so much more advanced than the rest of the world that we can accurately model these brand new virus numbers and skip the testing.
This post was edited on 2/24/20 at 11:33 pm
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