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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/21/20 at 2:41 pm to slackster
Posted on 2/21/20 at 2:41 pm to slackster
The presence of RDS in this thread is ominous, yet oddly comforting.
Never known RDS to dabble with a topic that wasn't highly relevant.
So: ominous
Knows how to deliver unpleasant scientific facts dispassionately for layman and without stepping into alarmism and often provides huge clues as to what said layman might want to do with info.
Equipping people with facts in a fluid situation: truly helpful
Never known RDS to dabble with a topic that wasn't highly relevant.
So: ominous
Knows how to deliver unpleasant scientific facts dispassionately for layman and without stepping into alarmism and often provides huge clues as to what said layman might want to do with info.
Equipping people with facts in a fluid situation: truly helpful
0
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:07 pm to slackster
quote:
and then people spent pages arguing that temperature wasn't a vital sign.
You said that people with just a fever were possibly/likely included in the stated critical China coronavirus cases, and people with medical knowledge said that was incorrect. You then spent 2 pages arguing that fact and digging that hole even deeper. Even now you continue to dig...
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:13 pm to CivilTiger83
Let’s move on, any theory on why Iran had such a big jump?
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:15 pm to CivilTiger83
He also pretends like his Models were not used to show how great this thing looked. A big old nothing burger that was growing exactly as he predicted.
Yet he also didn't trust the numbers used in the model?
It is all confusing now but that is the beauty of communist statistics. No one can say if he was right wrong or neutral.
Yet he also didn't trust the numbers used in the model?
It is all confusing now but that is the beauty of communist statistics. No one can say if he was right wrong or neutral.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 4:23 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
Let’s move on, any theory on why Iran had such a big jump?
If it's rampant in Iran, Pak amd probably Afg are ate up with it, with Turkey and the rest of the ME soon to follow. My BIL is working in Irbil right now
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:11 pm to crispyUGA
quote:
The E-4 Mafia will remain intact while the rest of the world burns.
And, after the world is done burning, they're gonna find someone else to pawn off sweeping the ashes onto.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:20 pm to Capt ST
quote:
any theory on why Iran had such a big jump?
I worry more about SK and Japan both highly densed populations.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:22 pm to PeteRose
quote:
BREAKING: Italy reports first death from coronavirus
quote:
The patient was a 77-year-old man in Monselice in northern Italy
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 5:23 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:27 pm to GeauxTigers2020
Man it’s really concerning that LSU lost young coaches like aranda and Brady and have these older coaches that are gonna be susceptible to this virus. Not a smart move. Need to consider all the possibilities when you pay people
Posted on 2/21/20 at 5:28 pm to TigerstuckinMS
German link
Translated excerpt:
The first bit of news (10 days til antibodies) seems to fit what people have been saying. The first week is when the illness gets going and the 2nd week tends to show how the patient will typically progress; either toward quick recovery or a more serious illness.
And if it is true that people come to a point where they still have some virus but aren't infectious, then that helps clear hospital beds for other patients.
Another link that says we might have a much larger asymptomatic group in China that would help push the CFR down:
Business Insider link
Now some of them might develop symptoms but it appears to be mild/non-symptomatic for a significant number of people. IIRC, I don't think any of the German cases were people who went to the doctor for symptoms but were checked due to traveler who became a confirmed case when she went back to China.
Translated excerpt:
quote:
Scientifically speaking, the past few weeks have been very instructive. Wendtner and colleagues were able to show that patients are infectious, even if they only experience mild symptoms. "In addition, we were able to observe that the new coronavirus is not at home in the deep respiratory tract like the related Sars pathogen, but instead can move upstairs in the throat and later change floors," says the doctor. There are also new findings from the Munich hospital on the course of the disease. "About ten days after the onset of symptoms, we saw immunity in all patients," says Wendtner. This time is enough for the body to recognize the intruders, to form antibodies against them and thus to render them harmless.
If the data that Wendtner and his colleagues have collected is not misleading, patients are no longer contagious if fewer than 100,000 virus particles per milliliter can be found in samples from the nose or throat. "From a scientific point of view, patients could be discharged at this stage," says Wendtner. So far, in Germany it has only been allowed to go if you no longer excrete viruses. "After our tests, we are very certain that the patients are no longer infectious at this stage. And of course it made a huge difference for them whether they were discharged after ten days instead of two or three weeks."
The first bit of news (10 days til antibodies) seems to fit what people have been saying. The first week is when the illness gets going and the 2nd week tends to show how the patient will typically progress; either toward quick recovery or a more serious illness.
And if it is true that people come to a point where they still have some virus but aren't infectious, then that helps clear hospital beds for other patients.
Another link that says we might have a much larger asymptomatic group in China that would help push the CFR down:
Business Insider link
quote:
A new report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed records of all of China's reported cases of the virus from December 8 to February 11 — a total of 72,314 patients. (For the latest official case total and death toll, see Business Insider's live updates.)
The researchers found that 80.9% of the confirmed cases were mild. Those patients might experience a fever or dry cough but weren't likely to have difficulty breathing or to develop a severe lung infection. The study also found that infected people could show no symptoms at all — that was the case for 1.2% of the patients.
quote:
A far higher portion of asymptomatic cases, however, has been found on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. The ship is host to the largest number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases outside China: at least 621. But 322 of those patients showed no symptoms, according to Japan's Ministry of Health.
Now some of them might develop symptoms but it appears to be mild/non-symptomatic for a significant number of people. IIRC, I don't think any of the German cases were people who went to the doctor for symptoms but were checked due to traveler who became a confirmed case when she went back to China.
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 5:29 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 7:06 pm to bbrownso
quote:
BREAKING: South Korea reports 142 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 346 - Yonhap
Posted on 2/21/20 at 7:56 pm to Malik Agar
quote:
quote:
BREAKING: South Korea reports 142 new cases of coronavirus, raising country's total to 346 - Yonhap
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:03 pm to rds dc
quote:
Friday's coronavirus summary (00-00 GMT):
-China: 397 new cases, 109 dead
-South Korea: 96 cases, 1 dead
-Italy: 16 cases, 1 dead
-Japan: 14c
-Iran: 13c, 2d
-California: 2c
-UAE: 2c
-Taiwan: 2c
-Australia: 2c (cruise)
-Canada: 1c
-Singapore: 1c
-Lebanon: 1c
-Israel: 1c (cruise)
quote:
Note: it is now 1:37 GMT, so this update doesn't include new cases which were reported in the last 1.5 hour
quote:
Coronavirus update:
- 77,812 cases worldwide
- 10,846 being tested
- 2,360 fatalities
- 11,529 in serious/critical condition
- 20,867 recovered
- Most cases in China
- Growing number in South Korea
- 29 countries reporting cases
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:42 pm to GeauxTigers2020
Meanwhile in the US, flu statistics:
29 million cases
280,000 hospitalizations
16,000 deaths including 105 children
29 million cases
280,000 hospitalizations
16,000 deaths including 105 children
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:52 pm to Kentucker
So COVID19 is a shitload more deadly is what you are saying
Posted on 2/21/20 at 8:56 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Meanwhile in the US, flu statistics: 29 million cases 280,000 hospitalizations 16,000 deaths including 105 children
If you had 29 mil coronavirus cases you would be looking at 300-600k dead (1-2% mortality)
So I’m not really sure what the point of your post is
But that’s conservative considering you would have 2+ mil critical cases. We only have 95k ICU beds. So you would quickly overwhelm the system and mortality rate would likely go higher than 2%
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 9:00 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 9:00 pm to Kentucker
So tired of this being parroted. eta: I should clarify, this is from a Request for correction from the Health and Human Service website
Idk about y'all, but i trust this guy^
quote:
US data on influenza deaths are false and misleading. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) acknowledges a difference between flu death and flu associated death yet uses the terms interchangeably. Additionally, there are significant statistical incompatibilities between official estimates and national vital statistics data. Compounding these problems is a marketing of fear—a CDC communications strategy in which medical experts "predict dire outcomes" during flu seasons.
quote:
The CDC website states what has become commonly accepted and widely reported in the lay and scientific press: annually "about 36 000 [Americans] die from flu" and "influenza/pneumonia" is the seventh leading cause of death in the United States. But why are flu and pneumonia bundled together? Is the relationship so strong or unique to warrant characterizing them as a single cause of death? David Rosenthal, director of Harvard University Health Services, said, "People don't necessarily die, per se, of the [flu] virus—the viraemia. What they die of is a secondary pneumonia. So many of these pneumonias are not viral pneumonias but secondary [pneumonias]." But Dr Rosenthal agreed that the flu/pneumonia relationship was not unique. For instance, a recent study found that stomach acid suppressing drugs are associated with a higher risk of community acquired pneumonia, but such drugs and pneumonia are not compiled as a single statistic.
quote:
Meanwhile, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), "influenza and pneumonia" took 62 034 lives in 2001—61 777 of which were attributed to pneumonia and 257 to flu, and in only 18 cases was flu virus positively identified.
Idk about y'all, but i trust this guy^
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 9:06 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 9:10 pm to DollaChoppa
Regardless of the numbers, I’m just confused why we shouldn’t be worried about a completely new cause of death just because there is another cause of death (flu)
That’s like saying, a lot of people die of alcohol poisoning so you shouldn’t be worried about the opioid crisis.
That’s like saying, a lot of people die of alcohol poisoning so you shouldn’t be worried about the opioid crisis.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 9:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
So COVID19 is a shitload more deadly is what you are saying
We don’t know that it is more deadly than familiar flu strains. China’s reporting is chaotic so we have to look at cases elsewhere to determine its fatality rate. So far it isn’t exactly terrifying.
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