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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:28 pm to slackster
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:28 pm to slackster
quote:
Modeling laboratory confirmed cases is one thing. Modeling symptomatic cases is another. You can't use the model for one to predict the other with a novel virus.
Yeah, your model and everyone else's became useless due to incessant changes in the case definitions. So why has China been doing this? Why not release parallel series using several definitions and let investigators decide for themselves which model to use?
I'm not saying China is deflating the numbers, they could be inflating them to drive fear for all I know. They have certainly muddied the data nearly to the point of making them useless. That kind of obfuscation seems intentional even if the reasons for doing so aren't clear.
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 12:29 pm
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Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:29 pm to slackster
quote:
Thank you for pointing out I was right.
Would you thank me if I pointed things that you were wrong about? However, it might take me all day.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:32 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
At least 34 people in the United States are infected with the new coronavirus spreading from China, federal health officials said on Friday.
Thirteen of the infections were diagnosed in travelers who fell ill after returning from overseas, and 21 in people “repatriated” by the State Department.
We'll likely have 44 soon enough when the 10 others get their tests confirmed by the CDC. And that doesn't count the others from that cruise ship who are considered at high risk of infection.
quote:
Ten other passengers from the Diamond Princess tested positive in Japan, but are not being counted among the infected yet, because the tests have not been confirmed by the C.D.C. They will likely be added to the case count, Dr. Messonnier said.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:33 pm to bbrownso
Luckily these people are being isolated right?
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:34 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Not even close. The argument was about patients being unstable and what that meant, but lets not rehash that. I was simply defining the criteria in this study so you didn’t misinterpret it.
Poker_hog, IIRC, said all serious/critical conditions meant ICU beds. I said that was probably overestimating ICU beds since not all serious conditions would require ICU beds.
A few of the usuals jumped in and argued against defined facts/definitions. It was comical then and it's comical now.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:35 pm to crispyUGA
I posted a few times before and said that the Chinese are lying about the numbers. But someone tipped off the rest of the worlds governments that they had a virus escape from a lab. There is now way we or any of the other nations would withdraw our people because a little virus outbreak. The Chinese know what they have done. It wasn't intentional but that doesn't matter. This virus is spread very easily and the worlds population will decrease a little because of it.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:36 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Would you thank me if I pointed things that you were wrong about? However, it might take me all day.
I underestimated the total confirmed case count. What else?
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:37 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Oh look, someone is moist...
May finally get his wish and people in the US start dying
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:41 pm to slackster
No. I said critical only. The beef was over you saying “unstable” patients could be patients with just fever. Everyone who deals with this stuff knows that’s laughable.
It’s obvious you have a background in science but not medicine.
Like I said, let it go before you embarrass yourself again. You have mostly good information but you were just wrong there.
It’s obvious you have a background in science but not medicine.
Like I said, let it go before you embarrass yourself again. You have mostly good information but you were just wrong there.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:44 pm to lsu13lsu
quote:
The point of it was to give China a way to report believable numbers.
Huh?
I was taking the numbers reported in China each day, plugging them into an exponential regression calculator, and posting the results here. I would take the average daily miss to build a quasi-standard deviation and give you a range for the next day's data.
It wasn't groundbreaking nor was it perfect, it was just another way to look at the data. It's hysterical people think I'm some kind of Chinese apologist. I've simply been looking at the data as it's reported - both in and out of China.
If you've been in this thread since the beginning, as many of you have, then you know that many in this thread won't be satisfied with any of the numbers if they're under doomsday level. People were convinced there were 70k-100k cases a month ago. These people will never be happy.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:57 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
No. I said critical only. The beef was over you saying “unstable” patients could be patients with just fever. Everyone who deals with this stuff knows that’s laughable. It’s obvious you have a background in science but not medicine. Like I said, let it go before you embarrass yourself again. You have mostly good information but you were just wrong there.
So we're clear how it all started...
LINK ]Poker_hog: Serious/critical cases from 7k to 9.6k. To put that into perspective there are only 95k icu beds in the entire United States. None of our states could handle that influx of sick pts much less any city.
slackster: I don't believe lumping serious and critical cases together is an accurate reflection of ICU cases. It wouldn't be in the US, for example, if we used the traditional definitions of serious and critical condition.
poker_hog: Serious: Vital signs may be unstable and not within normal limits. Patient is acutely ill. Indicators are questionable. - (definition of "serious" condition in the US) Unstable vital signs absolutely gets you moved to the icu in the United States.
and then people spent pages arguing that temperature wasn't a vital sign.
In a rush to argue with me people were making things up left and right. One of the more enjoyable evenings in this thread, tbh.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 12:58 pm to rds dc
Anyone know if the OP is being updated? Given what we are seeing in Iran & Italy and the CDC briefing today, this has the potential to significantly impact portions of the U.S.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:01 pm to rds dc
Clicked on this thread by accident to find many posts by rds dc and slackster.
Had to double check it wasn't a hurricane thread.
Had to double check it wasn't a hurricane thread.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:03 pm to rds dc
The link updated within the hour. Iran was at 5 cases before noon.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:04 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Article just published in Lancet (very respected journal)
This is a study of a Wuhan hospital
710 patient admitted for coronavirus
146 developed pneumonia
52 then became critically ill (defined as admission to ICU for mechanical ventilation or low oxygen saturation... slackster )
This study will look at those 52 critical patients...
37 needed mechanical ventilation
only 23 got antivirals
32 patients died
An important note for this:
quote:
The mean age of the 52 patients was 59·7 (SD 13·3) years, 35 (67%) were men, 21 (40%) had chronic illness
We know that this is right near where there is a large jump in mortality:
50-59 = 1.3% CFR
60-69 = 3.6% CFR
Source
Imgur album of entire 72,314 patient record study by Chinese CDC
It's apparent in their study itself:
quote:
Compared with survivors, non-survivors were older (64·6 years [11·2] vs 51·9 years [12·9])
Also one thing:
quote:
710 patient admitted for coronavirus
146 developed pneumonia
52 then became critically ill
Actually 201 developed pneumonia but 146 were excluded (146 had oxygen therapy with FiO2 <60%)
That left 55 patients but 3 more were excluded due to cardiac arrest (1 in transport and 2 soon after being admitted).
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:22 pm to bbrownso
This is not comforting: A significant percent of US medicines are made in the Wuhan Province of China. These drug making plants have all shut down and US shortages are expected to begin in 3 weeks.
Jim Cramer on CNBC asked Larry Kudlow, White House Director National Economic Council, what is being done, and it was news to him.
It should be illegal to manufacture medicine outside of the United States because of situations just like this.
CGTN from last week on the Drug Shortgage problem coming
According to Eurostat data, 6 percent of the EU's medicinal and pharmaceutical imports came from China in 2018.
But that doesn't capture the full picture because China also produces some of the key ingredients other countries use to manufacture antibiotics, painkillers and diabetes drugs. India, for example, is the world's largest generic drugs exporter, but it sources the bulk of its raw pharmaceutical materials from China.
Certain countries like Luxembourg are particularly vulnerable. It has no pharmaceutical industry and imports all of its drugs and medical equipment.
Some health ministers also raised questions around the free movement of people within Europe, with some stressing the need for a common approach.
Health is considered a national competency in the EU and each member state decides for itself whether to impose measures like border screenings, travel bans or mandatory quarantine. Italy is currently the only member state to enforce a ban on incoming and outgoing flights to China.
Jim Cramer on CNBC asked Larry Kudlow, White House Director National Economic Council, what is being done, and it was news to him.
It should be illegal to manufacture medicine outside of the United States because of situations just like this.
CGTN from last week on the Drug Shortgage problem coming
According to Eurostat data, 6 percent of the EU's medicinal and pharmaceutical imports came from China in 2018.
But that doesn't capture the full picture because China also produces some of the key ingredients other countries use to manufacture antibiotics, painkillers and diabetes drugs. India, for example, is the world's largest generic drugs exporter, but it sources the bulk of its raw pharmaceutical materials from China.
Certain countries like Luxembourg are particularly vulnerable. It has no pharmaceutical industry and imports all of its drugs and medical equipment.
Some health ministers also raised questions around the free movement of people within Europe, with some stressing the need for a common approach.
Health is considered a national competency in the EU and each member state decides for itself whether to impose measures like border screenings, travel bans or mandatory quarantine. Italy is currently the only member state to enforce a ban on incoming and outgoing flights to China.
This post was edited on 2/21/20 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:24 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Luckily these people are being isolated right?
Yep. And seemingly few of them are becoming severe/critical.
In fact, here is an article about one of them:
After The Diamond Princess Cruise, Coming Home To A Life In Isolation
quote:
Doctors in hazmat suits check on Goldman each day, he says. "I've got a little cough still ... my voice is a bit raspy, and I'm a little fatigued, but that may be also because of the jet lag and the travel and everything else on top of it," he says. "It doesn't feel any different than recuperating from a regular cold."
As of Tuesday, he reported that his vitals are strong. "They're giving me a lot of Gatorade," he says. He is not taking any medication, but many monitors surround him, with tangled wires attached to his body.
Weird coincidence:
quote:
As owners of a local radio station in Santa Clarita, Calif.,
He brings the total for Santa Clarita residents confirmed with this virus up to 3. They had two others who were confirmed (IIRC 1 who traveled and their spouse(?) who was infected when they came home).
BTW, here is his latest blog from their radio station's website:
LINK
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:43 pm to 9Fiddy
quote:
clicked on this thread by accident to find many posts by rds dc and slackster.
Had to double check it wasn't a hurricane thread.
Much like a hurricane thread, rds sticks to the tweets/facts and offers minimal commentary while I'm down to debate with every Tom, Dick, and Harry.
Posted on 2/21/20 at 1:45 pm to slackster
quote:
I underestimated the total confirmed case count. What else?
Way underestimate the total. That’s like having a lock of the year and the final score way off. You were wrong in death count also. But as long as you’re a good sport about it, its all good.
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