re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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lumping in previous clinically diagnosed cases to make up for lost time?

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Yesterday's number was apparently a "catch up" number, to reflect the current situation. Why they decided to this now is another matter, because I don't believe transparency was necessarily the only reason, especially since the new numbers based on clinical criteria (instead of laboratory confirmation) aren't necessarily accurate either.

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I think two factors need to be accounted for also. The air pollution in China as a background state and the fact that a huge proportion of the Chinese population smokes may easily make their population at whole much more at risk than the US or other developed nations. These factors may not be insignificant with a pneumonia.

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It’s not a bad hypothesis but that’s all it is at this point. Unless you have seen something I haven’t.

Wuhan has a PM2.5 of 88
Los Angeles has a PM2.5 of 68

Both are bad. Is that difference enough to cause significantly more deaths? I don’t think anyone knows at this point

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A 15th patient has been diagnosed with novel coronavirus in the United States, health officials reported Thursday.

The patient was among the Americans repatriated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the new coronavirus outbreak, and had been quarantined at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas.

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Not sure if it was posted yet. I saw 13 before, is this a typo? LINK

Nope doesnt look like a typo....was that the same flight as the guy from here Honkus?

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SAN DIEGO (AP) — A second case of novel coronavirus has been confirmed in the U.S. among evacuees from China, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday.

The person was aboard a flight from the city of Wuhan that arrived at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in Southern California last week, the CDC said.

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Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows

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As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: Two-thirds of the world’s population could catch it.

So says Ira Longini, an adviser to the World Health Organization who tracked studies of the virus’s transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000.

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Quarantines may slow the spread, but the virus had the opportunity to roam in China and beyond before they went into effect, Longini said. 

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“Unless the transmissibility changes, surveillance and containment can only work so well,” Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, said in an interview at WHO headquarters in Geneva. “Isolating cases and quarantining contacts is not going to stop this virus.”

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Counter point

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More data need to be gathered to gain a better idea of how far the virus is likely to range, said David Heymann, an infectious disease expert at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine who oversaw the WHO’s response to SARS in 2003. “We’re seeing countries outside of China that have been able to contain the outbreak pretty well.”

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LINK

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Yesterday's number was apparently a "catch up" number, to reflect the current situation. Why they decided to this now is another matter, because I don't believe transparency was necessarily the only reason, especially since the new numbers based on clinical criteria (instead of laboratory confirmation) aren't necessarily accurate either.

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Perhaps they felt they are making headways on containment and new cases are slowing so they decided to drop a big number so they could soon show a decrease.

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His quarantine is already up.

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Thats what I thought but wasnt sure...

Won't the virus somewhat stop once the weather gets hot like the flu?

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Perhaps they felt they are making headways on containment and new cases are slowing so they decided to drop a big number so they could soon show a decrease.

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More like, sooner or later people are gonna figure it out. Wrap it up in statistical confusion and make people think it is just a change in methodology. Let people argue on the internet about it till it is completely muddied and no one remembers if it is up or down.

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Top officials in Beijing on Thursday expanded their mass roundup of sick or possibly infected people beyond Wuhan, the city at the center of the coronavirus outbreak, to include other cities in Hubei Province that have been hit hard by the crisis, according to the state-run CCTV broadcaster. The orders to begin mass quarantines in Wuhan came down from the government last week to “round up everyone who should be rounded up,” part of a “wartime” campaign to contain the fast-spreading coronavirus outbreak. Confirmed patients with mild symptoms were put in large quarantine spaces. Suspected cases went to converted hotels and schools to be isolated. Close contacts of confirmed cases and patients with a fever who could have been infected were also put in separate facilities. But the state-led effort has been plagued by experiences of chaos and disorganization, deepening anxiety and frustration in a city already on edge from a prolonged lockdown.

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New York Times link

We've heard of 2 or 3 cases where the patients have recovered. I can't imagine the cases will diminish here. At least not yet.

At minimum, with so much world travel, you'd expect asymptomatic people will probably help spread the virus. Since they aren't symptomatic & coughing everywhere, they will not drive up the numbers in huge amounts. Hopefully this is all we see and we're able to keep the numbers relatively low with proper detection/tracing/quarantining of people likely to have it.

There is always the chance that it could take off if we're not careful. But I think we should be encouraged by the fact we've gone nearly 3 weeks since a lot of the Lunar New Year travel without many cases. We also have had international students return to campus without a ton of cases. That gives me hope.