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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:18 pm to PeteRose
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:18 pm to PeteRose
quote:
Serious/critical cases from 7k to 9.6k.
To put that into perspective there are only 95k icu beds in the entire United States. None of our states could handle that influx of sick pts much less any city.
3
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:22 pm to Poker_hog
By the way, does anyone have any scientific insight into why China is spraying tons of potentially harmful chemicals in the air as "disinfectant?"
Is it just a political move to give the impression of "things are under control?" Or is there a legitimate reason why such spraying might help control the virus?
Is it just a political move to give the impression of "things are under control?" Or is there a legitimate reason why such spraying might help control the virus?
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:23 pm to MikeyFL
This is scary but it also seems as though some people are overreacting.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:39 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
Serious/critical cases from 7k to 9.6k.
To put that into perspective there are only 95k icu beds in the entire United States. None of our states could handle that influx of sick pts much less any city.
I don't believe lumping serious and critical cases together is an accurate reflection of ICU cases. It wouldn't be in the US, for example, if we used the traditional definitions of serious and critical condition.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:54 pm to slackster
quote:
I don't believe lumping serious and critical cases together is an accurate reflection of ICU cases. It wouldn't be in the US, for example, if we used the traditional definitions of serious and critical condition
quote:
Serious: Vital signs may be unstable and not within normal limits. Patient is acutely ill. Indicators are questionable.
Unstable vital signs absolutely gets you moved to the icu in the United States.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:56 pm to Poker_hog
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:58 pm to Poker_hog
@BNODesk
The doctor became ill on January 31 but showed up for work for 3 days earlier this month, during which he worked with patients
Now one of his patients is in serious condition.
The doctor became ill on January 31 but showed up for work for 3 days earlier this month, during which he worked with patients
Now one of his patients is in serious condition.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 6:58 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
BNO Newsroom @BNODesk NEW: Patient of Japanese surgeon with coronavirus tests positive for the illness; he's in serious condition
quote:
BNO Newsroom @BNODesk · 9m The doctor became ill on January 31 but showed up for work for 3 days earlier this month, during which he worked with patients
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:08 pm to Malik Agar
Sounds like nothing but bad news updates. The ro going up is not good, kind of worrying.
That article said that coronavirus is now as contagious as the mumps.
That article said that coronavirus is now as contagious as the mumps.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:09 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
To put that into perspective there are only 95k icu beds in the entire United States. None of our states could handle that influx of sick pts much less any city.
This is the real issue. The early death rate isn’t a good indication of the potential death rate because the number starts increasing rapidly when resources get squeezed.
We are past the point of avoiding this. Best hope is to delay it as long as possible for warmer months to arrive and get closer to a potential vaccine.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:12 pm to Dominate308
quote:
R naught now between 4.7 - 6.6. This is extremely bad news.
That’s one estimate. Doesn’t mean it’s definitive.
It’s interesting that almost all of the authors are Chinese and 2 have DARPA funding
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:20 pm to Poker_hog
quote:
Unstable vital signs absolutely gets you moved to the icu in the United States.
Nah.
I'm sure a decent chunk of the serious cases would require an ICU in the US, but not all of them, which is my point.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:22 pm to NeonSunburst
quote:
Sounds like nothing but bad news updates. The ro going up is not good, kind of worrying.
That article said that coronavirus is now as contagious as the mumps.
R0 doesn't go up and down for a virus in a given area. That R0 estimate is nor better or worse than the early estimates that were around 2.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:22 pm to Burhead
quote:
BNODesk
I’ve never heard of BNO before coronavirus but they seem to be the 1st to get the numbers each day.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:25 pm to Dominate308
Can we stop reporting non peer reviewed papers as declarative documented fact? Especially when they are outliers to everyone else. And especially on something as subjective and mathematically expressing parameters for Ro.
Early population models from HK had it hitting the 100k case mark mid last week with the original settled r naught range and doubling in count every 7 days or so.
We still haven’t hit it.
But sure.....Ro is actually double that.
Early population models from HK had it hitting the 100k case mark mid last week with the original settled r naught range and doubling in count every 7 days or so.
We still haven’t hit it.
But sure.....Ro is actually double that.
This post was edited on 2/13/20 at 7:29 pm
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:26 pm to slackster
quote:
I'm sure a decent chunk of the serious cases would require an ICU in the US, but not all of them, which is my point.
Does it really matter? With only 95k beds that’s going to get used up real quick. It’s not like other illnesses requiring ICU just stop happening. We are probably already using a 1/4 of those at any given time.
We would be wise to use this time to start reinforcing our capacity. Hopefully the powers that be are not taking this lightly.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:29 pm to PeteRose
quote:
I’ve never heard of BNO before coronavirus but they seem to be the 1st to get the numbers each day.
The #s are posted online as a press release every day. They just seem to have cared about the virus more than pretty much every big need outlet.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:32 pm to slackster
quote:
Nah.
I'm sure a decent chunk of the serious cases would require an ICU in the US, but not all of them, which is my point.
Wtf? You have no idea what you’re talking about.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:34 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
This is the real issue. The early death rate isn’t a good indication of the potential death rate because the number starts increasing rapidly when resources get squeezed.
Totally agree. This is the best explanation of why the death rates are exceptional higher in Wuhan.
Posted on 2/13/20 at 7:51 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Does it really matter? With only 95k beds that’s going to get used up real quick. It’s not like other illnesses requiring ICU just stop happening. We are probably already using a 1/4 of those at any given time.
It actually matters alot. There is a measure called excess deaths - it basically captures how many people are dying from something that wouldn't have died from something else anyway. Many people dying of things like the flu were typically suffering from other ailments already. Many reports for COVID-19 suggest the same.
Granted, in Wuhan itself it's clearly a big deal, but the numbers elsewhere, particularly outside of China, are still incredibly mild.
quote:
We would be wise to use this time to start reinforcing our capacity. Hopefully the powers that be are not taking this lightly.
What specifically do you think should be done in the US?
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