re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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New York City lost over 1% of its population and not everyone got infected.

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Population of NYC is 8 million

death 23k (30k for all of NY State)

over 1%?

Burroughs in NYC sans manhattan (which potentially jumped ship during the lockdown) lost 0.2% of the population (in the 2000+ deaths/million range).

This is enough to say that the 0.26% CDC estimate is on the low end of possible, and likely already includes protocol improvements from March onward when US doctors finally got a good look at this thing. This summer will be more telling.

Best information will be how many of the confirmed June infections are still with us come July 31st. It’s going to be an overwhelming majority, but that being said there is an order of magnitude difference between 99% and 99.9%. And this whole thing fits into the law of small numbers to begin with.

Not to mention how many people died with covid and not from covid.

Have they cleaned that up now? Maybe that is contributing to a lower death rate.

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Spain's large-scale study (61k people) indicates just 5% of its population has developed coronavirus antibodies - ie herd immunity “unachieveable” without vaccines. Largest antibody study in Europe according to European CDC.

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LINK

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Key statement in accompanying editorial: "In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable."

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More aggressive testing, isolation, and more strict quarantine. Effectively the same basic formula used by South Korea, Singapore, taiwan and most of Europe albeit in delayed fashion.

Some day we’re going to collectively acknowledge how this was massively bungled

ockham's razor. why does it have to be more complicated?

essentially every country with a few exceptions has pursued the same strategy of aggressive lockdown followed by widespread testing/isolation/focalized repeat lockdown.

The EU has a larger population than the US, enjoys many of the same freedoms, and also has effectively open borders and has curtailed virus spread significantly.

multiple asian nations/australia/new zealand have done the same thing.

now maybe everyone is in on this and the whole world is lying just to try to score points against trump. i can't exclude this possibility.

but maybe we just screwed it up. and i'm not laying it all on trump. southern california is bright blue liberal and they're blowing up with new cases as well.

but i think someday americans are going to realize how we shite the bed on this one.

The other countries aren’t blowing up because they aren’t doing nearly the number of tests we are.

Are they testing asymptomatic 20 and 30 year olds? That’s the bulk of the new cases.

Our death curves look exactly the same. I’ll grant your point if their death counts taper off and ours take a big turn upwards.

I just can’t imagine we are the only country that can’t test trace and isolate and all these other countries could. How can you test trace and isolate asymptomatic cases? It was never an effective policy for a country of our size. Sure it can slow the spread but it can’t eliminate the virus.

In addition the parts of the US that are increasing in cases are essentially another country. You can divide it into the states that got hit early and the states that didn’t.





The fact is you can’t stop this virus unless you are a small island nation and you completely shut your borders and test almost all of the population.

Otherwise you just delay the wave like the second graph above.

Our lockdowns were effective in delaying the spread but the end result will be the same IMO. That’s what you are seeing in graph 2. The finishing of the wave that’s peak just got pushed back.

If I’m wrong why aren’t cities like New York and New Orleans spiking again? We aren’t anywhere near what one would consider traditional herd immunity and everyone was in large groups protesting.

in terms of tests per capita we're solidly in the middle of the pack. so certainly the mix of patients we are testing relative to other countries may be different in terms of testing more younger patients etc but i don't think other countries particularly in europe are failing to identify cases for want of tests. i could be wrong but i don't think i've ever seen a breakdown of demographic data about who is being tested in each country.

time will tell i guess in terms of death data but it would seem that regardless of who is being infected, the more cases you have the more deaths will eventually accumulate. moreover, the more community spread you have the more difficult it will be to completely isolate vulnerable populations. it would seem that the longer this goes on, barring breakthrough in treatment or development of vaccine, we will continue to rack up more fatalities. again, unless the other nations are just missing tons of spread just ongoing as we speak in spite of testing at greater numbers per capita than us, i don't think other nations outside brazil and russia are going to be accumulating the same new deaths.

i think we failed to implement a strategy to test/isolate/trace prior to re-opening the economy in various states. hell most states failed to even meet the CDC recommended milestones before re-opening.

now houston won't be new york because physicians have learned a lot about how to treat covid, but texas/florida/mississippi/alabama/california/arizona etc etc didn't need to go this way. it just didn't have to be like this.