- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 7/3/20 at 9:00 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
Posted on 7/3/20 at 9:00 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
A quick run at the numbers in the study:
Combined population of Jefferson and Orleans Parish - 823,499.
If 7.8% of the population (Ochsner estimate) has had covid then that's 64,232 cases.
Reported combined deaths - 1,007 (probably a bit high since that's to date, Ochsner study is "recent").
100*1,007/64,232 = 1.57%. Pretty close to Ochsner's 1.63%.
Combined population of Jefferson and Orleans Parish - 823,499.
If 7.8% of the population (Ochsner estimate) has had covid then that's 64,232 cases.
Reported combined deaths - 1,007 (probably a bit high since that's to date, Ochsner study is "recent").
100*1,007/64,232 = 1.57%. Pretty close to Ochsner's 1.63%.
1
Posted on 7/3/20 at 9:26 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
What do you think it is closer to?
The cdc thinks 0.3% so something is off. That’s not even in the same ballpark.
1.6% is not even close to the range of most other antibody studies
This post was edited on 7/3/20 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 7/3/20 at 9:36 pm to WaWaWeeWa
Yea, then that is definitely way off.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 6:06 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
The cdc thinks 0.3% so something is off.
CDC is an outlier on the low side and has a lot of skeptics, before that there were a number of studies in the 0.6% to 0.8% range.
US deaths are now 132k so a 0.3% fatality rate would mean 44 million people have been infected. That seems high, the last estimate I saw was 25 million (CDC I think), or 7.6% of the US population. Ochsner study said 7.8% of New Orleans, which was one of the most heavily infected locations in the country. 25 million probably errs on the high side since it has the US average about the same as New Orleans.
As a WAG - 20 million infections with 132k deaths, or 0.66% for the US. New Orleans at 1.6% may mean just a lot of unhealthy people at a time when we were still learning how to treat covid. Or Ochsner may be undercounting the cases somehow. I've always been highly skeptical of the CDC's 0.3%; maybe months down the road as treatment gets even better it will become correct.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 8:19 am to Tigris
My unscientific study. I have four fiends that have tested positive. All were over it in 24 hours Or never had any symptoms beyond loss of taste and smell. One of the four has diabetes, high blood pressure and over weight and is 45. One is 35 others are all in 40s.
This post was edited on 7/4/20 at 8:21 am
Posted on 7/4/20 at 10:16 am to Eat Your Crow
I have been tracking fatalities since April because it is so difficult to get good info. Per million population, for selected states. The big jump in Jersey was for a bunch of probables that came in last week. I include all probables.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 11:01 am to LaneRat
Hearing 119 deaths in Florida today. Not good.
News was wrong.
News was wrong.
This post was edited on 7/4/20 at 11:50 am
Posted on 7/4/20 at 11:27 am to Crimsonians
My sister is an icu nurse at Lafayette General. She said that unfortunately the deaths are mounting in the COVID unit.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 11:32 am to Crimsonians
quote:
Hearing 119 deaths in Florida today. Not good.
$37k per death motivates CoD to be Covid e'erthing
Posted on 7/4/20 at 11:43 am to lsusteve1
Actually only 18 for Florida. Much better. Local news has it wrong. ABC of course.
Fake news
Fake news
This post was edited on 7/4/20 at 11:44 am
Posted on 7/4/20 at 12:55 pm to Crimsonians
Well I’m on day 4 of no taste and no smell.
Don’t feel good, don’t feel bad.
Little congested.
Don’t feel good, don’t feel bad.
Little congested.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 5:06 pm to wm72
Yours is a great post! very thoughtful. I disagree only with saying Sweden compares best to Minnesota and ND. Not at all. There is no major international city, like Stockholm, in those states.
But you’re right to question whether Sweden’s approach could have been successfully implemented many other places.
But you’re right to question whether Sweden’s approach could have been successfully implemented many other places.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 5:18 pm to SloaneRanger
quote:
Will the pandemic be over before we get a straight answer on this? Is anyone able to put politics aside and see whether this treatment may help?
We had straight answers on hydroxychloroquine months ago. But the media is selectively publishing studies to discredit Trump.
Hydrx. has been shown to be fairly effective in shortening suffering if applied early to people who are not very sick. If they wait until a patient is extremely sick it does no good. This was known two months ago. The reason for the confusion is that studies were done in which extremely sick people were treated, and there was no positive effect. The media jumped on that to discredit Trump. But they never clarified by saying that it DOES help when applied early.
Trump and the media he fights are petulant children.
Posted on 7/4/20 at 8:36 pm to p&g
quote:
Well I’m on day 4 of no taste and no smell.
Don’t feel good, don’t feel bad.
Little congested.
Wishing you well baw
Posted on 7/4/20 at 8:46 pm to Tigris
quote:
US deaths are now 132k so a 0.3% fatality rate would mean 44 million people have been infected
I disagree slightly.
While that is the number you would need infected to get .3 right now, our sample of deaths may be, and likely is, skewed towards the most susceptible.
So, if it could infect everyone the IFR may be .3, but since it hasn't our sample of cases can be biased towards those who die more from it at the moment.
This post was edited on 7/4/20 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 7/5/20 at 6:07 pm to rds dc
Let's see how the media handles California next week. They updated their reporting system over the holiday weekend and may have underreported by as many as 25k cases and will be making adjustments starting tomorrow.
Posted on 7/5/20 at 8:07 pm to rds dc
You really don’t know? 
they are going to freak the frick out. Even though my question would be where are all the hospitalizations and deaths if there are that many cases?
they are going to freak the frick out. Even though my question would be where are all the hospitalizations and deaths if there are that many cases?Posted on 7/5/20 at 9:19 pm to WaWaWeeWa
So a bunch of experts are sending this letter to the WHO about the virus being airborne. They want the WHO's acknowledgement/guidelines updated.
LINK
Somebody who is smarter than me, does this mean that the public needs to be wearing a N95 or something similar to prevent infection? Also, this could be a huge problem for many businesses/offices, right? Like I'm sure the vents in my old office building aren't going to be great for this.
LINK
Somebody who is smarter than me, does this mean that the public needs to be wearing a N95 or something similar to prevent infection? Also, this could be a huge problem for many businesses/offices, right? Like I'm sure the vents in my old office building aren't going to be great for this.
Posted on 7/5/20 at 9:40 pm to Tigris
New York City lost over 1% of its population and not everyone got infected.
Posted on 7/5/20 at 9:53 pm to Whiznot
quote:
New York City lost over 1% of its population and not everyone got infected.
The virus is no hoax but your statement is not at all close to being correct.
Page 1148 of 1190
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News