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Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:20 pm to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:20 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
I guess that's good news with respect to opening things back up regarding peak resource demand.
Huge news for that.
1
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:39 pm to TheCaterpillar
NYU scientists: Largest US study of COVID-19 finds obesity the single biggest 'chronic' factor in New York City's hospitalizations
As we all really knew, being fat and getting COVID19 is not a good combo.
As we all really knew, being fat and getting COVID19 is not a good combo.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:02 pm to TheCaterpillar
HOLY SMOKES
Fauci just completely backed up Trump.
Said Trump has said "Yes" to every recommendation him and the task force have made to him on the first request since this has started.
CNN has been running nonstop the story that Trump didn't listen to people early on and it led to a worse situation.
ETA:
And then a reported asked if he was saying this stuff "against his will"
Fauci just completely backed up Trump.
Said Trump has said "Yes" to every recommendation him and the task force have made to him on the first request since this has started.
CNN has been running nonstop the story that Trump didn't listen to people early on and it led to a worse situation.
ETA:
And then a reported asked if he was saying this stuff "against his will"
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:16 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Fauci just completely backed up Trump.
Said Trump has said "Yes" to every recommendation him and the task force have made to him on the first request since this has started.
CNN has been running nonstop the story that Trump didn't listen to people early on and it led to a worse situation.
I look forward to a lot of posters apologizing in this thread
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:34 pm to NawlinsTiger9
The more and more this develops, the more a part of me just agrees with my tin foil hat friend that thinks this is some fricked up Orwellian experiment by the deep state to prep us in case China ever does actually try and weaponize something.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:58 pm to TheCaterpillar
Holy frick Fauci looked like he wanted to rip that reporters head off after shooting her down.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:58 pm to STLhog
I keep thinking someone’s gonna say “psych — got you!”. And then I remember people are indeed dying but itnis bizarro world for sure. 
Posted on 4/13/20 at 6:50 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Fauci just completely backed up Trump.
Said Trump has said "Yes" to every recommendation him and the task force have made to him on the first request since this has started.
ETA: Just watched most of the presser. Trump went HAM. Loved it.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 9:31 pm
Posted on 4/14/20 at 7:55 am to JohnnyKilroy
NY Study - Screening pregnant women for COVID on admission.
New England Journal of Medicine
New England Journal of Medicine
quote:
Between March 22 and April 4, 2020, a total of 215 pregnant women delivered infants at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center . All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.
quote:
Of the 29 women who had been asymptomatic but who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 on admission, fever developed in 3 (10%) before postpartum discharge (median length of stay, 2 days). Two of these patients received antibiotics for presumed endomyometritis (although 1 patient did not have localizing symptoms), and 1 patient was presumed to be febrile due to Covid-19 and received supportive care. One patient with a swab that was negative for SARS-CoV-2 on admission became symptomatic postpartum; repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing 3 days after the initial test was positive
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:15 am to BRIllini07
quote:
Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2
Hard to understand how you can have so many asymptomatic positives AND so many symptomatic negatives.
But any time R0 goes up and cf goes down is a good day.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:17 am to BRIllini07
Yeah, that shows that in NYC, where the outbreak has been severe, there have been a lot of people who were infected but were asymptomatic.
Here's the thing: achieving herd immunity isn't an effective strategy, but we don't have to have true herd immunity for this to be important. If a significant portion of the population ends up with antibodies as a result of this first wave of the virus (say, 10%), it would make a second wave this fall a little smaller and easier to manage.
We'll need large-scale antibody testing to learn this, but the problem is that a lot of the antibody tests currently flooding the market appear to be poorly made and low quality, because the FDA isn't regulating these tests unless the manufacturer wants them to be used in actually diagnosing a current case of COVID-19.
That's dangerous, because if healthcare workers get an antibody test and get a false positive result, then they might take undue risks, assuming that they can't contract COVID-19, because they've already had it.
So we're going to have to be very careful with results of antibody studies. If a test has a false positive rate of 10%, then most of the people who test positive for the antibodies won't really have them.
Here's the thing: achieving herd immunity isn't an effective strategy, but we don't have to have true herd immunity for this to be important. If a significant portion of the population ends up with antibodies as a result of this first wave of the virus (say, 10%), it would make a second wave this fall a little smaller and easier to manage.
We'll need large-scale antibody testing to learn this, but the problem is that a lot of the antibody tests currently flooding the market appear to be poorly made and low quality, because the FDA isn't regulating these tests unless the manufacturer wants them to be used in actually diagnosing a current case of COVID-19.
That's dangerous, because if healthcare workers get an antibody test and get a false positive result, then they might take undue risks, assuming that they can't contract COVID-19, because they've already had it.
So we're going to have to be very careful with results of antibody studies. If a test has a false positive rate of 10%, then most of the people who test positive for the antibodies won't really have them.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:26 am to GOP_Tiger
Interestingly, this study showed an attack rate around 15%. The German study (antibody testing) showed similar. Both the Diamond Princess and Theodore Roosevelt were similar (15-20%).
I'm really wondering if half (or more) of the general population either:
a) Has a mutation somewhere that renders them less susceptible to COVID (similar to the CCR5 gene mutation for HIV).
b) Is resistant enough that it takes a tremendous viral load for them to get infected - and thus wouldn't be likely to acquire the illness via small interactions with an infected person.
I'm really wondering if half (or more) of the general population either:
a) Has a mutation somewhere that renders them less susceptible to COVID (similar to the CCR5 gene mutation for HIV).
b) Is resistant enough that it takes a tremendous viral load for them to get infected - and thus wouldn't be likely to acquire the illness via small interactions with an infected person.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:46 am to BRIllini07
The New York study was also before the peak of the New York outbreak among a group of people who are already partially social distancing (9 month pregnant women are often already taking off from work, not going out as much).
It is likely the percentage of cases in New York has doubled or tripled since then.
The minister of health for Italy said he thought 30% of their population had it including asymptomatics.
It is likely the percentage of cases in New York has doubled or tripled since then.
The minister of health for Italy said he thought 30% of their population had it including asymptomatics.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 8:48 am to Shaun176
But it showed a true asymptomatic rate of roughly 80%
So 15% infection rate, 80% asymptomatic rate. That is noteworthy for sure
So 15% infection rate, 80% asymptomatic rate. That is noteworthy for sure
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 8:49 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:00 am to BRIllini07
quote:
All the women were screened on admission for symptoms of Covid-19. Four women (1.9%) had fever or other symptoms of Covid-19 on admission, and all 4 women tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (Figure 1). Of the 211 women without symptoms, all were afebrile on admission. Nasopharyngeal swabs were obtained from 210 of the 211 women (99.5%) who did not have symptoms of Covid-19; of these women, 29 (13.7%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2. Thus, 29 of the 33 patients who were positive for SARS-CoV-2 at admission (87.9%) had no symptoms of Covid-19 at presentation.
They had no symptoms when they went to the hospital. It says the median length of stay was 2 days. The median incubation period of coivd-19 is around 5 days but some people remain asymptomatic for 10 days or more prior to showing symptoms.
The study does not mention anything about tracking them after they left the hospital (probably outside their scope). Not saying the data isn't significant but those drawing conclusions saying XX% remains asymptomatic would likely be incorrect if these patients receive followup questioning.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:00 am to Shaun176
quote:
It is likely the percentage of cases in New York has doubled or tripled since then.
The minister of health for Italy said he thought 30% of their population had it including asymptomatics.
What does this say about whether everyone staying home for an extended period of time is a realistic strategy? Because it seems to me that if it is this widespread and contagious then the strategy just isn't going to work.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:04 am to slacker00
quote:
median incubation period of coivd-19 is around 5 days but some people remain asymptomatic for 10 days or more prior to showing symptoms
You should not test positive during the incubation period. There has to be a significant amount of the virus for the test to be positive. If there is a small amount of the virus the test will be inconclusive.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:40 am to Shaun176
What? I don't believe that is correct at all. In the early reports from the Diamond Princess the asymptomatic numbers were almost as high as 50% of the infected population but they dropped to around 18% because many were pre-symptomatic when the tested positive.
Posted on 4/14/20 at 9:54 am to Shaun176
quote:
You should not test positive during the incubation period.
"Incubation period" for infectious diseases is defined as the period of time betweeen contraction/infection and onset of symptoms. Plenty of Covid positive individuals have been described as "asymptomatic" prior to and at the time of their positive test. Maybe not all were truly asymptomatic (not everyone is a good historian of their own physical condition), but some were.
The deCODE Genetics data from Iceland (they've tested over 10% of the population) is interesting and suggests Covid is much more prevalent and asymptomatic than expected. Not sure I believe that's accurate, but maybe surveillance antibody testing will eventually give us the answer.
This post was edited on 4/14/20 at 10:42 am
Posted on 4/14/20 at 10:25 am to wdhalgren
Sister was exposed 20+ days ago. She was swabbed a few days ago and test was negative. But she's occasionally running a low fever for short periods since the test. She's cleared to go back and work unit. BTW, she said the test now includes both sides with 10 sec twirl on each and it hurts like a mofo.
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