Corona Prediction Thread: When will infection growth level off?

2-3 weeks

When the rate of testing levels off.

This thing cant be extremely infectious, extremely deadly, in country since January, AND spreading at a slow controllable rate. One of those is not true.

12 more days

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appears we may be able to weather 2 months of widespread shutdowns before this thing levels off.

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A communist country with no welfare system that doesn’t give a shite about letting half of its population starve to death or go unemployed can weather two months of a complete country shut down. A capitalist country cannot weather two months of a complete shutdown. That would be catastrophic for the United States. It will be catastrophic for those countries too, they just don’t give a shite about their citizens.

10 days from today

3/50/20

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And I know you can't really trust China nor their data BUT if you look at China and Korea

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I'm a little worried about thinking that we can do this as well as those subservient societies, that either had mass testing at the very beginning, or locked down right away.

Is that the narrative you want to push?

My guess? Peak ends in April/early May, rates start slowing in May and June. July through September we see some cases and then we'll see another big spike during the winter and until we get the vaccine.

We don't know. Because vast majority of positive people aren't tested.

6/1/2020