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re: Corona Prediction Thread: When will infection growth level off?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:00 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:00 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Who's out there tracking how many 90 year old men were dying of "disease" in december though? Every person I've ever personally known to die at that age, it's just accepted that they were too old to survive getting sick from whatever it was. That's been going on. Now the same 90 year old person dies from the same thing, but we test them for this specific thing and find out they had it and now it's a big statistic
Thank you
0
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:06 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
I just dont buy that we are actually controlling the spread of very contagious virus. Now we are, sure. Seems to me that to actually control something like this, youd have to lock down at patient zero. All the airports are still open right now.
I actually agree with this.
quote:
How many are we hospitalizing who would normally be sent home with pills to treat their symptoms?
That I don't know.
I also would be interested to see hospital occupancy over time as this spreads. If it goes up with the spread of a disease you will have your answer. If it doesnt then this is all a big nothingburger.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:08 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
From March 1st to the 17th the death rate followed a constant exponential rate. That rate ticked up a few degrees on the 18th and 19th.
Your link only provides information for deaths attributed to covid19. That’s not what I asked but it is exactly why I asked this question:
What is the total death rate attributed to illness in the United States for Nov,Dec,Jan,Feb,Mar
Because for numbers sake:
If there have been an average of 1000 deaths per month attributed to illness and 200 of those have been “unknown breathing complications” and in March there are still 1000 deaths per month but instead of 200 unknown breathing complications deaths there are now 200 covod19 deaths then while the covid19 death rate is growing exponentially the total average attributed to illness death rate is not growing and therefore the curve is already flat or steady as it has been.
Do you see what I’m getting at?
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 10:09 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:10 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
also would be interested to see hospital occupancy over time as this spreads. If it goes up with the spread of a disease you will have your answer
People are being admitted right now for testing positive for covid19 but health care workers all over this country have been saying people have been sent home since January with flu like symptoms while testing negative for the flu so hospitals occupancy actually tells us nothing.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:12 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
If there have been an average of 1000 deaths per month attributed to illness and 200 of those have been “unknown breathing complications” and in March there are still 1000 deaths per month but instead of 200 unknown breathing complications deaths there are now 200 covod19 deaths then while the covid19 death rate is growing exponentially the total average attributed to illness death rate is not growing and therefore the curve is already flat or steady as it has been.
Do you see what I’m getting at?
Yeah I do. You're trying to figure out if the number of people dying from this has been more or less constant and because we only started testing within the last month we can attribute it to something.
One way to confirm that would be to look at occupancy rate of hospitals. If it has been trending upward in correlation to new cases you have an answer.
On the other hand if the occupancy rate stays steady with massive rise in testing then you would be correct.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:16 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
but health care workers all over this country have been saying people have been sent home since January with flu like symptoms while testing negative for the flu so hospitals occupancy actually tells us nothing.
So if I have x amount of people in the hospital on average for 12 months, and that same x amount of people in the next 12 months that would imply a constant occupancy rate.
If a pandemic rolls through and we see that same x number of patients you dont think that implies the pandemic didnt actually send people to the hospital?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:19 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
If a pandemic rolls through and we see that same x number of patients you dont think that implies the pandemic didnt actually send people to the hospital?
It’s just tough because People are also flocking to hospitals where they may have just stayed at home and taken some over-the-counter medication if they thought they had the flu. I know I don’t go to the hospital if I get the flu.. But now everyone with flu like symptoms is rushing to the hospital because they think they have coronavirus. Does that make sense? That’s why I am thinking death rate is the most important statistic
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:21 am to okietiger
Put me down for 4/3 for when the number of deaths per day curve peaks.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:23 am to okietiger
Probably June-ish if were being honest. China did a full on military quarantine and it still took 2 months
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:29 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
On the other hand if the occupancy rate stays steady with massive rise in testing then you would be correct.
I'm sure occupancy rate is being very well tracked since that was sold as the primary concern here, right? This should be easy to trend out.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:31 am to okietiger
Forecasting 88 degrees, next week.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 1:12 pm to jcaz
quote:
The more that testing is available means the higher the infected numbers go. But it doesn't indicate shite....
What matters is the mortality rate. If that doesn't rise much then we are okay.
Uh, if there are more infections, and healthcare systems become clogged, there will be more deaths. And the 2 months I predict will be much longer.*
*literally Italy right now
Posted on 3/20/20 at 1:30 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
death start to level off on an log scale from the current exponential rate it is on.
Deaths are going up here exponentially?
Seems this all started a while back and as of now I see the number at 210.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 1:34 pm to okietiger
You're assuming that testing is ahead of actual infections, and I cant believe that.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 1:35 pm to okietiger
it will be a little better on April Fools day, but we wont know for sure till the next day.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 2:08 pm to okietiger
If this hasn't gotten out of hand within 3 days then you're full of shite. I'm confident Italy is an anomaly.
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