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re: Corona Prediction Thread: When will infection growth level off?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:09 am to okietiger
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:09 am to okietiger
2 months sounds about right, if not a bit conservative. A lot of places are still struggling getting testing kits, and if that continues we could be looking at 4 to 5 months.
1
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:11 am to Winston Cup
[quote]a virus it is always gonna be like this.[/quote
People dont seem to understand that. With the way we travel and commingle these days, there is no "flattening the curve" with a highly contagious virus. This whole exponentional growth thing people keep parroting has been happening for months, it doesnt just conveniently track with testing frequency. Once it shows up, it's already everywhere. There should have been pyres of dead in early february if all of the doom and gloom were true. All of new orleans should have started dropping like flies 5 days after mardigras.
All of this lockdown shite is government flexing to keep the masses from thinking they've seen the four horsemen of the apocalypse
People dont seem to understand that. With the way we travel and commingle these days, there is no "flattening the curve" with a highly contagious virus. This whole exponentional growth thing people keep parroting has been happening for months, it doesnt just conveniently track with testing frequency. Once it shows up, it's already everywhere. There should have been pyres of dead in early february if all of the doom and gloom were true. All of new orleans should have started dropping like flies 5 days after mardigras.
All of this lockdown shite is government flexing to keep the masses from thinking they've seen the four horsemen of the apocalypse
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:11 am to The Spleen
One thing to watch IMO is when China fully goes back to work and the restrictions are lifted if we'll see the potential 2nd wave that some say may come.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:13 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
This whole exponentional growth thing people keep parroting has been happening for months
Can you explain the exponential growth of deaths then?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:15 am to okietiger
3 weeks 5 days 0 hours
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:19 am to NYNolaguy1
Has there been in exponential growth in deaths attributed to illness in this country? Or just deaths attributed to china flu? I havent seen that data, and I suspect only the 2nd is true.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:21 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Has there been in exponential growth in deaths attributed to illness in this country? Or just deaths attributed to china flu? I havent seen that data, and I suspect only the 2nd is true.
LINK
You can make an argument this thing has been around since whenever and point to inaccuracies in testing fairly reasonably, but it gets much harder to claim that death rates for covid haven't been exponential when you look at the data.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:27 am to NYNolaguy1
But, is the growth of testing frequency exponential proportionally with the number of deaths attributed to it?
Point I'm going for is that people have likely been dying from it for quite a while and we were at our normal level of overwhelmed before panic induced overload.
I dont deny that this is nasty shite, I just deny that it is so much worse than previous viral outbreaks that we did not appreciably care about in this country.
Point I'm going for is that people have likely been dying from it for quite a while and we were at our normal level of overwhelmed before panic induced overload.
I dont deny that this is nasty shite, I just deny that it is so much worse than previous viral outbreaks that we did not appreciably care about in this country.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:28 am to okietiger
The more that testing is available means the higher the infected numbers go. But it doesn't indicate shite....
What matters is the mortality rate. If that doesn't rise much then we are okay.
What matters is the mortality rate. If that doesn't rise much then we are okay.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:28 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Can you explain the exponential growth of deaths then?
Are there exponentially more deaths in total attributed to illness in March than Dec-February in the United States? or is just a growth rate for deaths attributed to covid19 but total deaths are staying the same? Because that’s extremely important data I haven’t seen reported
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:31 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
That's what I've been fishing for. Not sure it's easily quantified, because the number of deaths attributed to china flu is minute compared to total statewide deaths.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:32 am to DownshiftAndFloorIt
quote:
Point I'm going for is that people have likely been dying from it for quite a while and we were at our normal level of overwhelmed before panic induced overload.
If that was the case you wouldnt be seeing a rise in hospitalized patients if it was more or less constant.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:32 am to okietiger
I think we stay in our current pattern till at least May but who really knows?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:34 am to okietiger
quote:
I think we're probably looking at a solid 2 months of shutdowns.
And I know you can't really trust China nor their data BUT if you look at China and Korea, it appears we may be able to weather 2 months of widespread shutdowns before this thing levels off.
What say you? Shorter? Longer? End of the World?
I think infections themselves will level off within the next week. Most of the country is either in quasi-lockdown or getting there.
I think deaths won't level off for another 12 - 16 days. That's probably the most important number to watch.
Detecting infections won't level off for a while (at least a few weeks, perhaps longer) given the nature of our testing.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:40 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
it’s only growing right now because we keep increasing testing.
People aren’t getting infected at astronomical rates. That’s not what happening.
Everyone is already infected and people have been infected since at least January.
It just looks like infection are skyrocketing because we’re finally testing for it and only testing those with multiple symptoms
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:45 am to Chef Free Gold Bloom
quote:
Are there exponentially more deaths in total attributed to illness in March than Dec-February in the United States?
Yes.
From March 1st to the 17th the death rate followed a constant exponential rate. That rate ticked up a few degrees on the 18th and 19th.
LINK
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:45 am to NYNolaguy1
How many are we hospitalizing who would normally be sent home with pills to treat their symptoms?
I just dont buy that we are actually controlling the spread of very contagious virus. Now we are, sure. Seems to me that to actually control something like this, youd have to lock down at patient zero. All the airports are still open right now.
I just dont buy that we are actually controlling the spread of very contagious virus. Now we are, sure. Seems to me that to actually control something like this, youd have to lock down at patient zero. All the airports are still open right now.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:46 am to Tyga Woods
[quote]6/1/2020[/quote
Truth
Truth
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:47 am to okietiger
End of April / beginning of March.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:49 am to NYNolaguy1
Again, that is only Coronoavirus cases. Not total disease-casued deaths.
Who's out there tracking how many 90 year old men were dying of "disease" in december though? Every person I've ever personally known to die at that age, it's just accepted that they were too old to survive getting sick from whatever it was. That's been going on. Now the same 90 year old person dies from the same thing, but we test them for this specific thing and find out they had it and now it's a big statistic
Who's out there tracking how many 90 year old men were dying of "disease" in december though? Every person I've ever personally known to die at that age, it's just accepted that they were too old to survive getting sick from whatever it was. That's been going on. Now the same 90 year old person dies from the same thing, but we test them for this specific thing and find out they had it and now it's a big statistic
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