re: Category 5 Hurricane Melissa - 185 mph, 892mb, Top 3 in Recorded History

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We have two recon planes monitoring Melissa and now the extrapolated flight level data is estimating 902.8mb!!
This is contradicted by preliminary dropsonde data indicating 2-3 points higher but the dropsonde data is still two points lower than the previous flight.
Will have to wait and see how the NHC calls this one
Melissa ain't slowing down

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Unreal

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That 40" plus will be isolated, but with that terrain......half of that will be a problem.

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Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025

Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been
investigating Melissa this evening. They found that the system
is maintaining category 5 intensity with the central pressure near
903 mb and peak 700 mb flight-level and tail Doppler radar winds
supporting 150 kt for the current intensity. The hurricane
continues to exhibit a well-defined eye about 10 n mi in diameter
embedded within extremely cold cloud tops to near -90 deg C.
Upper-level outflow remains well defined over the system. Although
such intense tropical cyclones typically undergo an eyewall
replacement, radar observations from Jamaica do not show this
occurring thus far.

After remaining nearly stationary over the past few hours, Melissa
now appears to be moving slowly north-northeastward with an initial
motion estimate of around 020/02 kt. During the next few days, a
mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to deepen near the southeastern
U.S. coast. This should result in Melissa moving
north-northeastward to northeastward with increasing forward speed
through the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to
the previous one and also close the tightly-clustered consensus and
Google DeepMind guidance. The only significant difference in the
track forecast compared to earlier today is a slower motion during
the first couple of days, which delays the expected arrival of the
core of Melissa over Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern or
Central Bahamas.

Some fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the short
period before Melissa reaches Jamaica. The primary influence on
the hurricane's intensity during the next 36 hours will be the
interaction with land. Some weakening is anticipated after the
system moves over Jamaica and eastern Cuba. More substantial
weakening is likely after the system moves past Cuba and over the
southwestern Atlantic, where the vertical wind shear is likely to
increase significantly. The official intensity forecast is close
to the latest LGEM guidance.

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Current Weather Conditions:
Montego Bay / Sangster, Jamaica
(MKJS) 18-30N 077-55W 8M
Conditions at

Oct 27, 2025 - 11:00 PM EDT

2025.10.28 0300 UTC
Wind from the SE (140 degrees) at 36 MPH (31 KT) gusting to 52 MPH (45 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly clear
Weather Light rain
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity 78%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.59 in. Hg (1002 hPa)

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No surprise since most of the residents are extremely poor, and any flights leaving have been full of tourists, as well as workers in the tourism industry.

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