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Started By
Message
re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:19 am to lsugolfredman
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:19 am to lsugolfredman
That isnt optimal
2
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:20 am to lsugolfredman
Nope, don't like that
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:20 am to Cosmo
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:22 am to Cosmo
quote:
That isnt optimal
We've had run of the year and now biggest a-hole run of the year in the same day.
Still a lot of details to work out at least.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:23 am to rt3
quote:
Thus Wilfred has formed, continuing
the record-setting pace of the 2020 hurricane season
quote:Proving once again the NHC is more interested in creating records and news to draw attention to itself than it is in actually informing the public of potential danger.
That
should promote weakening due to a substantial increase in shear
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:23 am to lsugolfredman
Holy shite. That would be bad.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:23 am to Duke
Any model now can prob be thrown in garbage
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:25 am to rt3
quote:
NHC trying to be funny or something?
Blake wrote the package for this one... isn't he the "funny one" on the staff?
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:27 am to Jwho77
quote:
With this storm's predicted indecisiveness, the name Beta would have been more appropriate.
Ask and you shall receive.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:28 am to Cosmo
quote:
Any model now can prob be thrown in garbage
The exact path can be at least.
Prominentwon, Slow, and the rest of the LCH people please don't get too worked up over that run.
We're only at the point of getting the general progression down. Goes north, drifts west, turns north and then more NE outside of the 5 day range seems to be the recipe at this point. Weak steering means there's a lot of possible launching points for the N and NE run. Including over land in Texas.
Right now, I'm just looking at how the players causing the turns are trending run to run and getting that framework in place.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:30 am to rds dc
Yes! Beta bitches! 
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:31 am to Duke
ALPHA BY PORTUGAL!!!
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:36 am to LSUneaux
This?
Ok I guess.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:36 am to LSURussian
quote:
Proving once again the NHC is more interested in creating records and news to draw attention to itself than it is in actually informing the public of potential danger.
I view them as more of an umpire... if it's a ball, it's a ball, if it's a strike, it's a strike. The fact that the next 14 pitches may be a ball, doesn't mean that they can't call this pitch a strike, if it is a strike.
And if a storm meets the characteristics to be a named storm, it's a named storm, no matter what happens 3 days from now.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:36 am to LSUneaux
Alpha was just born.
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:37 am to LSUneaux
quote:
ALPHA BY PORTUGAL!!!
Wtf that one came out of nowhere! How alpha
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:47 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
Alpha's barely on the damn map
ETA: ze cone ze cone
ETA: ze cone ze cone
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 11:50 am
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:57 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Blake wrote the package for this one... isn't he the "funny one" on the staff?
does the NHC need a "sarcastic one"?
b/c I can totally fit the bill
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:57 am to BallsEleven
Don't lol at me but that's not how they really do this is it????
Posted on 9/18/20 at 11:59 am to Who_Dat_Tiger
we should all read it... just for the funzies
quote:
000
WTNT44 KNHC 181634
TCDAT4
Subtropical Storm Alpha Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL242020
430 PM GMT Fri Sep 18 2020
The small low pressure area that has been rotating around a larger
extratropical low in the far northeastern Atlantic has become better
organized this morning. Moderate-to-deep convection has persisted
near the center since last night, scatterometer data shows a closed
40-kt low, and radar images from Portugal show a definite organized
convective pattern. While the system is still in the cyclonic
envelope of the large extratropical low and likely neutral- or
cold-core, it has developed enough tropical characteristics to be
considered a subtropical storm. The initial intensity is set to 45
kt in accordance with the scatterometer data, assuming some
undersampling for this small system.
Little change in strength is forecast until landfall in Portugal
during the next couple of hours. Global models show the small low
moving northeastward at about 15 kt for the next 24 hours before
dissipating over northern Spain or the Bay of Biscay. The track and
intensity forecasts are consistent with the consensus guidance.
Additional information on the hazards from this system can be found
in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at
www.ipma.pt.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1630Z 39.9N 9.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 41.5N 7.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 19/1200Z 44.2N 4.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
This post was edited on 9/18/20 at 12:00 pm
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