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Started By
Message
re: Beta - Downgraded to TD - Now Short Break in Storms or Season Over?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:01 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:01 am to Bobby OG Johnson
Latest Euro puts it into morgan city as a cat 1
3
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:02 am to deltaland
The models are drunk go home
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:15 am to deltaland
GFS and the rest of the entourage saying "nah". GFS is only one Im seeing to take it to LA weak then drag west.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:16 am to Tigah D
Models all on crack right now. Too many storms they are all in burn out mode currently.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:58 am to iron banks
Thursday Morning (Euro)
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 7:59 am to bayoubengals88
Oh frick me
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:00 am to jimbeam
quote:To be fair, the GFS isn't showing any of that...
Oh frick me
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:02 am to rds dc
rds we need to hire you a full time MSPaint illustrator for your posts
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:02 am to Duke
Where do storms historically go when they're in this part? Just curious what the history shows on the landfall for these.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:06 am to deltaland
Good news for Louisiana on that latest Euro. They are never correct 9 days out.
Seems to be the trend for NOLA lately. Models have the cone smack dab over southeast La. It hasn’t materialized into anything other that a light breeze in years.
Seems to be the trend for NOLA lately. Models have the cone smack dab over southeast La. It hasn’t materialized into anything other that a light breeze in years.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:13 am to GeauxTigers80
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/17/20 at 8:17 am
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:15 am to deuce985
quote:
Where do storms historically go when they're in this part? Just curious what the history shows on the landfall for these
Generally drift north and hit us as fronts aren't really dipping down south to pick them up and send them to Florida yet.
But this is a complex setup so no telling right now. Plus models are sually completely wrong 5+ days out with a system not even formed so i wouldn't worry yet. Long way to go still
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:25 am to rds dc
quote:
New "numbers" on Invest 90L in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It looks as if this area is becoming increasingly better organized and a tropical depression or storm could form later today. Air Force reconnaissance is scheduled to investigate this afternoon.
-WAFB First Alert
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:54 am to Tigah D
quote:
GFS and the rest of the entourage saying "nah". GFS is only one Im seeing to take it to LA weak then drag west.
There is a trough moving across Texas (kicker) in image below.
The Euro and GFS handle it differently over the next couple of days.
The Euro doesn't dig into the Gulf and keeps it positively tilted (you can visualize this by drawing a line in the center of the trough - if it leans forward that is positive, vertical is neutral, leans backwards that is negative)
The GFS digs deeper into the Gulf and is more neutral.
In simplest terms, that allows the GFS to pull the system out of the BOC.
The Euro orientation stretches the system a bit but ultimately leaves it down in the BOC.
Currently, neither model has a trough strong and deep enough to completely kick the system out of the Gulf. The GFS leaves the system in a less favorable position for future development.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 8:57 am to rds dc
Thank you for this
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:04 am to rds dc
Explanations like this are why you deserve a lifetime subscription to TD Premium.
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:08 am to rds dc
So what are the chances of Louisiana landfall?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:10 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
So what are the chances of Louisiana landfall?
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:11 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
So what are the chances of Louisiana landfall?
Somewhere between maybe and no
Posted on 9/17/20 at 9:16 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
So what are the chances of Louisiana landfall?
my bet is somewhere between the mouth of the Rio Grande and Nova Scotia
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