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re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More

Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:55 pm to
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25633 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 1:55 pm to
quote:

How many teams 13th player gets meaningful minutes? WTH do you expect from the 13th player? Do you seriously believe that 13 players can get meaningful minutes?




Hey guy. I don't seriously believe that the 13th player gets minutes. that's the point. He's not any good.
Does Wenyen have some untapped potential to be a decent player? maybe. What's his ceiling? maybe the 5th best big on a team?

quote:

He won't get meaningful minutes either.


Maybe. Maybe not. The point is there's a chance a 2nd round pick becomes a starter, albeit very very low. There's also a chance they become a decent role player. There's also a chance they are out of the league in 2 years and never actually play. At least this player has a ceiling that's unknown. Why waste a roster spot on someone you aren't going to play, and doesn't have any upside potential?

Posted by SLafourche07
Member since Feb 2008
9928 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

He’s restricted, but if he blatantly asks out, I don’t think we’d keep him here against his will after the JJ fiasco.




We sure as shite would.

“Go out and get an offer and we’ll try to sign and trade you. Or sign our contract and we’ll try and trade you later if it’s mutually beneficial. Or sign the qualifying offer.”


You don’t just let a RFA walk because he asks you to let him.
Posted by Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
14351 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 2:16 pm to
He still has no ultimate choice in the matter as he's a RFA. If he tells Griff he would prefer to sign elsewhere and would assist in working out a sign and trade, then that would be his only hope. They won't let him walk for free unless someone severely overpays him.
Posted by BigPerm30
Member since Aug 2011
25949 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 3:42 pm to
It would be so like the Pelicans to let the only guy who plays defense walk.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
66650 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 4:11 pm to
I really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
27256 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:32 pm to
Do people really think hart gets anywhere close to 15mil?


What do y'all think caruso gets?
I think he would be perfect for the pels.

He can defend, can handle the ball some, and will hit the open 3.

Tough as nails and will take a charge.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
115968 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:37 pm to
Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.
Posted by SLafourche07
Member since Feb 2008
9928 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.



If he only gets $10m then it’s a no brainer to bring him back because at that point he’s still an asset.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61520 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:43 pm to
quote:

Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.


He's also an RFA, that often completely shuts down the market for mid level guys. You're not going to get him unless you sign him to an offer sheet you know the Pels won't match.

Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.
Posted by TigahJay
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2015
10561 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 6:51 pm to
Wish the Lonzo and Hart odds were lower...don’t think I will like the price for either
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
27256 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:06 pm to
I don't see someone paying hart 15


What do you think caruso gets?

Pels could use his toughness.
Posted by SaintTigerPel
LaPlace
Member since Dec 2017
915 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:16 pm to
But his face is just too damn punchable.
Posted by BowDownToLSU
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
19269 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:19 pm to
quote:

really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.
just hope it isn’t the Pelicans
Posted by Chalkywhite84
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
27256 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 8:58 pm to
It really is.

You will feel different about him when he is on the pels.

All those things that piss you off about him you will end up loving.
Posted by SaintTigerPel
LaPlace
Member since Dec 2017
915 posts
Posted on 6/3/21 at 10:11 pm to
I don’t hate his game at all. I just really hate his face.
Posted by ErikGordan
Member since Oct 2016
856 posts
Posted on 6/4/21 at 8:22 am to
I think the Pels have no choice but to resign Hart and Lonzo.
New York is the only team that can pay Lonzo Noth of $22M
I believe you will see Lonzo back on a short-term deal.

The Pels have salary cap issues with nearly $40M owed to Adam's and Bledsoe. The team will unfortunately be unable to sign James Johnson.

Can't see a major increase in the cap for this upcoming season.
This post was edited on 6/4/21 at 8:51 am
Posted by Townedrunkard
Member since Jan 2019
8854 posts
Posted on 6/4/21 at 12:00 pm to
Tough shite. If he signs a reasonable deal, no reason we don’t match it. He’s a solid player and would be easy to move in a trade later on for something better or to get another asset.

I’m not in the business of just giving away everything we got in the AD and Jrue trades for nothing b/c of feelings.
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17879 posts
Posted on 6/4/21 at 2:25 pm to
quote:

Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.


Yes, I think that the league's salary structure makes things difficult for an RFA like Hart, whose value is just a little more than the MLE, because it's unlikely that a team is going to tie up its cap space for a guy who isn't going to make a huge difference in their record, when they can get someone almost as good for a few million less with the MLE.

Hart will either re-sign with the Pels or there will be a sign-and-trade done.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
11923 posts
Posted on 6/7/21 at 12:36 pm to
quote:

Will Guillory's latest piece in the Athletic examines what he thinks the odds are that the following players are back on the roster next season.

LINK

Lonzo: 40-50%
Hart: 60-70%
James Johnson: 10-20%
Hernangomez: 80-90%
Gabriel: 50-60%

I was a bit surprised by the number for James Johnson, but Guillory explains that Johnson is 34, a UFA, and has yet to win a ring, so he doesn't think that Johnson is going to want to play next season for a team that isn't a real contender.

I also think that the odds on Gabriel are higher than Guillory does. Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
Guillory has never really proven to have significant inside info, so I assume this is just his personal opinion.
Posted by NOFOX
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9947 posts
Posted on 6/10/21 at 1:30 pm to
I would put it at:
Zo: 45%
Hart: 5%
Willy: 100%
Johnson: 0%
Gabriel: 60% (mostly just cap issues)
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