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TeddyPadillac
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Dec 2010
18854 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

How many teams 13th player gets meaningful minutes? WTH do you expect from the 13th player? Do you seriously believe that 13 players can get meaningful minutes?




Hey guy. I don't seriously believe that the 13th player gets minutes. that's the point. He's not any good.
Does Wenyen have some untapped potential to be a decent player? maybe. What's his ceiling? maybe the 5th best big on a team?

quote:

He won't get meaningful minutes either.


Maybe. Maybe not. The point is there's a chance a 2nd round pick becomes a starter, albeit very very low. There's also a chance they become a decent role player. There's also a chance they are out of the league in 2 years and never actually play. At least this player has a ceiling that's unknown. Why waste a roster spot on someone you aren't going to play, and doesn't have any upside potential?



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SLafourche07
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2008
8340 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

He’s restricted, but if he blatantly asks out, I don’t think we’d keep him here against his will after the JJ fiasco.




We sure as shite would.

“Go out and get an offer and we’ll try to sign and trade you. Or sign our contract and we’ll try and trade you later if it’s mutually beneficial. Or sign the qualifying offer.”


You don’t just let a RFA walk because he asks you to let him.


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50
Soggymoss
Member since Aug 2018
6950 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
He still has no ultimate choice in the matter as he's a RFA. If he tells Griff he would prefer to sign elsewhere and would assist in working out a sign and trade, then that would be his only hope. They won't let him walk for free unless someone severely overpays him.


BigPerm30
Chicago Cubs Fan
Member since Aug 2011
17845 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
It would be so like the Pelicans to let the only guy who plays defense walk.


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10
SammyTiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
48798 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
I really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.


Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
11688 posts
 Online 

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Do people really think hart gets anywhere close to 15mil?


What do y'all think caruso gets?
I think he would be perfect for the pels.

He can defend, can handle the ball some, and will hit the open 3.

Tough as nails and will take a charge.


Fun Bunch
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
81399 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.


SLafourche07
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2008
8340 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.



If he only gets $10m then it’s a no brainer to bring him back because at that point he’s still an asset.


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40
TigerinATL
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Member since Feb 2005
54809 posts
 Online 

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

Hart seems like an MLE guy to me.


He's also an RFA, that often completely shuts down the market for mid level guys. You're not going to get him unless you sign him to an offer sheet you know the Pels won't match.

Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.


TigahJay
Maryland Fan
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2015
6345 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Wish the Lonzo and Hart odds were lower...don’t think I will like the price for either


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Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
11688 posts
 Online 

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
I don't see someone paying hart 15


What do you think caruso gets?

Pels could use his toughness.


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30
SaintTigerPel
LSU Fan
LaPlace
Member since Dec 2017
297 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
But his face is just too damn punchable.


BowDownToLSU
LSU Fan
Livingston louisiana
Member since Feb 2010
15490 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

really Think Lonzo is going to get overpaid for the 99th best 3 point shooter in the league.
just hope it isn’t the Pelicans


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20
Chalkywhite84
New Orleans Saints Fan
New orleans
Member since Dec 2016
11688 posts
 Online 

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
It really is.

You will feel different about him when he is on the pels.

All those things that piss you off about him you will end up loving.


SaintTigerPel
LSU Fan
LaPlace
Member since Dec 2017
297 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
I don’t hate his game at all. I just really hate his face.


ErikGordan
Member since Oct 2016
645 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
I think the Pels have no choice but to resign Hart and Lonzo.
New York is the only team that can pay Lonzo Noth of $22M
I believe you will see Lonzo back on a short-term deal.

The Pels have salary cap issues with nearly $40M owed to Adam's and Bledsoe. The team will unfortunately be unable to sign James Johnson.

Can't see a major increase in the cap for this upcoming season.
This post was edited on 6/4 at 8:51 am


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02
Townedrunkard
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Jan 2019
2383 posts
 Online 

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
Tough shite. If he signs a reasonable deal, no reason we don’t match it. He’s a solid player and would be easy to move in a trade later on for something better or to get another asset.

I’m not in the business of just giving away everything we got in the AD and Jrue trades for nothing b/c of feelings.


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20
GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
8262 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

Does another team really want to pay Josh Hart $15 million? If so good for Josh. If not, he's going to be waiting by the phone for Griff's call assuming any tax space is left after the bigger moves are made.


Yes, I think that the league's salary structure makes things difficult for an RFA like Hart, whose value is just a little more than the MLE, because it's unlikely that a team is going to tie up its cap space for a guy who isn't going to make a huge difference in their record, when they can get someone almost as good for a few million less with the MLE.

Hart will either re-sign with the Pels or there will be a sign-and-trade done.


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NOSHAU
New Orleans Saints Fan
Member since Feb 2012
8196 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
quote:

Will Guillory's latest piece in the Athletic examines what he thinks the odds are that the following players are back on the roster next season.

LINK

Lonzo: 40-50%
Hart: 60-70%
James Johnson: 10-20%
Hernangomez: 80-90%
Gabriel: 50-60%

I was a bit surprised by the number for James Johnson, but Guillory explains that Johnson is 34, a UFA, and has yet to win a ring, so he doesn't think that Johnson is going to want to play next season for a team that isn't a real contender.

I also think that the odds on Gabriel are higher than Guillory does. Gabriel is a team option at $1.7 million, and he'd finally become a regular part of the rotation at the end of the season, so I don't know why we wouldn't pick up the option.
Guillory has never really proven to have significant inside info, so I assume this is just his personal opinion.


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NOFOX
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jan 2014
9250 posts

re: Will Guillory's Odds on Free Agents: Lonzo, Hart, and More
I would put it at:
Zo: 45%
Hart: 5%
Willy: 100%
Johnson: 0%
Gabriel: 60% (mostly just cap issues)


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