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re: What are you guys actuall expecting from our rookie?

Posted on 5/19/16 at 2:53 pm to
Posted by Domingo Ayala
NOLA
Member since Oct 2013
338 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 2:53 pm to
I agree.
Posted by theducks
Where The Blazers Play
Member since Aug 2013
13848 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

lillard and mccollum might be the 2nd best guard duo in the league. leonard and plumlee are better than asik and ajinca. they have depth on the wings and the front court with young athletic players that can play defense, and crabbe is about to break loose plus they have a top-5 coach


All of this. We're bound to lose a few guys. I'd say at least one of Crabbe, Henderson, Leonard, possibly another plus somebody like Aminu, Davis, Plumlee, Alexander through trade.

Still. The Pels have Jrue who is a good PG. In 2016, most NBA teams have a good PG though. And then there's AD. Stud. But the rest? Ajinca, Asik, QPon, Reke, Babbitt, etc etc just aren't players you'd name drop when you're talking about good players in the NBA.

This is a response to crewz. I agreed with everything cgrand had said.
Posted by theducks
Where The Blazers Play
Member since Aug 2013
13848 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 3:15 pm to
quote:

To me this roster is better than when we won 45 games and made the playoffs Jrue/Frazier Tyreke/Heild/BDJ Quincy/Crabbe/Ennis AD/Dante/Free Agent Asik/Ajinca/Perk


Yes and no. If you're keeping Reke, I'd move him to the bench and put Crabbe at SG. You're C position is still fricked. The entire frontcourt outside of AD really. If we played this team out on paper, I'd take them over Dallas and Memphis though. Unfortunately, that would be their ceiling unless Hield or Crabbe become 15-20 ppg scorers, I don't think a team with Reke, Jrue, and AD would have enough touches for the other guys to develop.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 4:43 pm to
Y'all should listen to the Ringer NBA pod episode 6

LINK

Danny Chau and Jonathan Tjarks (one of the sharper guys out there) discuss the lottery, picks 1-3 and then 3-7. Only about 25 minute pod; and unless you care about picks 1-3 you can skip the first 10 minutes or so.

Quick summary-

Not much separating picks 3/4-12 or so
They both love Chriss and his upside
Neither are enamored with Murray or Hield. See them as one trick ponies (scorers w/o much else to offer)
Both think lower rated wings might be better fits in the NBA because of versatility

Some food for thought
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 4:47 pm to
Was a solid podcast, but they both seem far too enamored with upside. Its what gets GM's in trouble every year, nd yeah - you might eventually get the home run, but there are far more strikeouts.

Sometimes a solid double is nice.
Posted by cgrand
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
40329 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 5:16 pm to
I feel the same way but the problem is who we have evaluating and picking. Is there any evidence that this front office can pick the right one?
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 5:21 pm to
It depends who is left.

If Drummond was there at 10, Dell takes him. He wasn't, and Rivers was next on his board. He was was extremely high on Lillard that year. I also know he was big on Faried and Klay in other years. He was also big on guys who didn't turn out well.

It comes down to luck in some ways. He will like guys that will be great and guys who won't be. The hope is that the guys he likes that will be great will still be there.
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

they both seem far too enamored with upside


I read a lot of that as they didn't particularly think highly of the guys slotted after 3, so why not take a swing on upside. But, yeah. A lot easier to make that type of call when it's not your job on the line.

quote:

Sometimes a solid double is nice.


Yep. Just hope they think some about 2018-2020 and beyond this summer.

quote:

Is there any evidence that this front office can pick the right one?


$64K question. To me, it's just as much culture in the draft room and within the organization/coaching staff after the pick as it is luck. Can they take a flawed guy and max out his potential? I am hopeful, but have my doubts
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 5:47 pm to
Whether it is Hield or Dunn, those guys are better prospects right now than any guy on the board at any time Dell got to pick, outside of AD.

Easier to hit when you are selecting among more talented players. Now, if he was sitting at 9 or 10 in this draft, I would be far more worried.
Posted by WhySoSerious
No.
Member since Jan 2014
783 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:37 pm to
ROY.
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30493 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 9:46 pm to
If Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson are not kept, your player becomes the 4th option (3rd if Tyreke/jrue are staggered).

I'm expecting a reasonably efficient 12ppg of its hield, Dunn, or Murray. Not some 40% crap... More like 43-45 and mid-high 30s from 3
This post was edited on 5/19/16 at 9:47 pm
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
87100 posts
Posted on 5/19/16 at 11:42 pm to
Roy playoffs and save our franchise, buddy
Posted by corndeaux
Member since Sep 2009
9634 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 6:08 am to
quote:

More like 43-45 and mid-high 30s from 3


That's highly unlikely. Only 7 rookie guards. with at least 2K MP, have hit 45/37 ever. Now, 5 of them happened between '06-'10. But none since. And only 27 players in the entire league hit that mark this season.

It's not impossible for Hield/Murray/Dunn, but expecting that from a rookie, even as a 3rd or 4th option, is just a bad bet.
Posted by 911Moto
Member since Sep 2013
5491 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 9:55 am to
quote:

think most fans realize this team isn't competing in one year with just a rookie and some mid level free agents


Do they realize this? The team we already have, if healthy, was expected to be a 5-6 seed. Unless, of course, our coach really is crap and the players don't really matter.
Posted by Crewz
Member since Jun 2014
5093 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:01 am to
And the team was expected to be a 5 or 6 seed in a WC that was expected to be much better.

Dallas is another year older, Houston is a mess. Memphis might win 25 games next year.

I'm telling you- regardless of what a rational fan might think, the Pels think there is an opportunity to skyrocket up the WC standing with a solid offseason
Posted by ShamelessPel
Metairie
Member since Apr 2013
12738 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:07 am to
MM - Why are you so high on Jamal Murray? I'm genuinely curious. You mentioned Hield not being able to impact the game in more than one way other than scoring. Where do you see the second contribution coming from with Murray?
Posted by htran90
BC
Member since Dec 2012
30493 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:16 am to
The range is where I'm putting it. 45 is high, but 43/37 isn't outrageous to think.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62060 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:31 am to
quote:

the Pels think there is an opportunity to skyrocket up the WC standing with a solid offseason


I think this is true, but that 45 win team ended the year 9 deep in players that performed well for Monty, 10 if you count Jrue returning in the playoffs. Who can Gentry rely on? Especially if we lose Gordon/Ryno and Tyreke for little more than cap space. Even if you hit on #6 and guys like Frazier and BDJ step up, you still will probably need to get 2 starting caliber players out of FA or trades into cap space.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
118990 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:43 am to
FA is insanely important for us this year. We have to get it right.

I've seen a few different scenarios but everyone seems to be focusing heavily on the draft so I haven't gotten a very good feel for what FA could look like. I've seen everything from us going after a Evan Fournier/Solomon Hill combo to putting all eggs into the Batum or Barnes basket.

I don't know what to make of it to be honest. Everyone will have cap space so its hard to determine what's realistic.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62060 posts
Posted on 5/20/16 at 10:57 am to
Everyone will have cap space and the FA market is thin on players worthy of big money. I think you have to pitch Batum if he'll talk to you. Even though it'd make the roster thin this season, it's enough of a talent upgrade at our biggest hole that you kind of have to do it if he says yes.

I do not want to pay Barnes $20 million. I don't care what kind of inside info Gentry has on him. Demps listening to a coach about players he was really familiar with got us about 10 games of Jerryd Bayless and a few painful years of Austin Rivers.

Bazemore is a 3 and D wing that's more SG than SF. Does paying $12-$15 million for a better QPon sound like a good plan? I don't dislike Bazemore but if QPon is coming back isn't he a bit redundant?

So if Batum doesn't work out, go immediately to plan D. Take that money and take a flier on cheaper talent that is hitting the age where it might be ready to bloom. Sign a guy like Solomon Hill to a team friendly deal. Something like $4-$7 million for 3 years with the 3rd year being a team option. If he works out your big pieces should be in place if you have to give him more money. If he doesn't you cut him after year to or stretch him after year 1.
This post was edited on 5/20/16 at 10:59 am
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