Upside v High Ceiling at #10.

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Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn Dec 10, 2020

Former Chicago Bulls GM Gar Forman is joining the New Orleans Pelicans front office as a special advisor, sources tell ESPN. Forman will focus in the scouting area for David Griffin and Trajan Langdon.

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We haven't heard anything since Forman joined the team, but Woj said his focus will be on scouting. If you look at his draft history, it's almost all multi year college/euro players until Wendell Carter Jr. and Coby White. How influential to the process Forman will be is unknown, but at the very least they appear to have added a voice to the war room that is pro more proven players.

Mitchell and Kispert also seem to check most of the boxes Griff said he was looking to add to the team. If they keep the pick I think they break form and go for Mitchell/Kispert

I'd throw Jaden Springer in the upside pile as well....Though he might be a little too close to what we envision for NAW to reach for him unless he blows up in workouts.

But my thing is I dont really see it the way you do.

I don't see, realistically, those three(maybe, maybe Giddey) that you named becoming all star or fringe all star caliber players and much more likely see them as guys that will struggle in the league to develop.

Whereas I think Davion has a smoother and easier path to fringe all star and Kispert to being a JJ Redick type. Wagner potentially being a 3 and D with a bit of third facilitator component to his game. All of which I see reachign their ceilings more than the three so-called "high upside" guys listed.

The players were merely examples of the TYPE of players in this draft that relatively speaking fit the mold.

This wasn't a discussion on those particular players.

Senguin or trade it please.

I don't think Mitchell is going to last until 10 and I think it is a bit early for Kispert (some mocks have him sliding into the 20s now).

Our holes are at guard, specifically PG. We need back up forwards (not as much if we resign Hart, which I hope we do). But I think we can get a couple of projects there in the 2nd.

So I'd like to grab a PG to compete/push Lewis. But can slide over and play with him if Lewis starts to emerge. I believe that we have our future SGs out of either NAW or Didi. Mitchell would be great. But I am really digging Mann now and like his upside. I'd be happy if we took someone like him..

I don't think you go into the draft focusing on upside vs high floor. I think you have a big board, and sometimes the guy at the top of your board will be a high upside guy, and sometimes the guy will be a high floor guy (depending upon who is available at any given pick). For example, I don't think guys like Keon Johnson are completely off of the Big Board, and I don't think guys like Davion Mitchell are completely off of the Big Board.

My gut was that upside is more desirable but we have so many upcoming picks and already developing projects that we need more high floor type guys to either round out the roster or to be more attractive sooner in a hypothetical future trade for another piece.

Wagner has upside. Not even 20 yet. I think he is right there in the same category as Sengun

If we are going pure upside, why not Usman Garuba? People might forget this, but whenever this draft class was first being discussed a few years ago, Garuba was looked at as one of the prize prospects and being mentioned in the same breathe as Cunningham. His stats and skills have clearly plateaued the last couple years, but it’s hard for some young guys to breakout in Euroleague and there’s still ton of upside.

I’ve been intrigued by him for a while, but only recently been able to watch more of his most recent film.

The good: He’s 6-8, 230 with a 7-2 wingspan, moves fairly well at his weight, while still being 19yoa. He’s shown a ton of defensive potential, has some fluidity to his game, and his shot form looks decent. He shows flashes of being able to attack close outs and get to the rim off the dribble with crossovers and eurosteps. He’ll also get out and run and beat other plodding bigs down the court for easy dunks.

The bad: Like Zion, he looks much more fluid on the offensive end of the floor than the defensive end. His feet do look a little slow, he isn’t great sinking his hips on defense, and relys a lot on his superior wingspan. Also like Zion, he’ll be a much better help defender than on-ball defender to start as he’s much more of a help-side shot blocker than a pure rim defender. He’s also probably going to foul a ton his first few years as he has a tendency to get handsy and reach a lot. He’s still a work in progress on offense as most of his points come from being setup near the basket. His awareness out of the pick and roll isn’t there yet as he has trouble finding the open man whenever the defense rotates early to him off the roll. His shot form looks good with a good base and decent release, but he’s only comfortable taking a set shot. His shot also takes some time to get off as he has a tendency to bring the ball low to his body first before going up with it.

I’ve seen comps from Al Horford to a rich man’s Faried, but to me he looks like his ceiling is a more offensively gift version of Paul Millsap. Either way, I think this is a situation where everyone is kicking themselves for not rolling the dice on his potential or he’s a position-less tweeter who’s out of the league in 4 years. It doesn’t feel like there will be an in-between

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I dont see Garuba being a fit for us at all right now.

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As currently constructed? You’re absolutely right. I wouldn’t take him either and I’m not advocating for the Pels to. I only bring him up because this thread is about pure potential and Garuba has the one of the highest ceilings in the class.