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re: Offseason player trade rumors thread

Posted on 6/15/21 at 10:01 am to
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
127939 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 10:01 am to
Yeah, I tend to agree.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

This team needs more Robins.


The team doesn't need a 3rd scorer, it needs a 3rd threat to help free up Zion and Ingram. Sexton not only is a potential usage conflict with Zion/Ingram, he'd probably cost 2-3 1sts to trade for.

MM tweeted out a list of available Off The Dribble 3 and Catch & Shoot 3 specialists and most of them are reasonably available.

Off the dribble sharp shooters like

Buddy, Fournier, Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks, Wayne Ellington.

Catch & Shoot specialists like

Buddy, Robinson, Bertans, Malik Beasley.

I'm not saying the Pels should aim for the cheapest option, but there are a lot of fits and teams usually overpay when they lock in on one target.

Lonzo also made these lists, so it's not a given that you want to trade him away. I think keeping Lonzo really depends on his price or if you think you can do a S&T of someone like Duncan Robinson and think that's an upgrade.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13485 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 2:43 pm to
quote:

Lonzo also made these lists, so it's not a given that you want to trade him away. I think keeping Lonzo really depends on his price or if you think you can do a S&T of someone like Duncan Robinson and think that's an upgrade.

I have seen that thought here a few times. Is Robinson an upgrade over Ball overall? Is he too one dimensional and will he cost as much or more than Ball (and 3.5 years older)?
Posted by RUFshreve
Shree'pote
Member since Jul 2016
3036 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 2:51 pm to
I'd rather resign Ball, than trade him for Robinson, assuming the contracts are about the same.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

I have seen that thought here a few times. Is Robinson an upgrade over Ball overall? Is he too one dimensional and will he cost as much or more than Ball (and 3.5 years older)?




Let me ask you this.
When Duncan Robinson stands outside the 3 point line and doesn't move (which is what Lonzo does the majority of the time and not what Duncan would do), do you think his defender is going to leave him to help out on Zion? If he does, who would you rather taking the wide open 3, Lonzo or Duncan Robinson?

We just saw what Lonzo did as the primary perimeter defender. I'm not saying Duncan is a great defender, b/c he isn't, but he's not a terrible defender, and can just as easily do what is asked of Lonzo, which is guard the 2nd or 3rd best perimeter player.


so to answer your question, hell yes he's an upgrade over Ball b/c his offense, even without the ball, is exactly what Zion and BI need, and his defense compared to Ball is pretty negligible.

Duncan's one dimension on offense is elite. Lonzo's one dimension on offense is not elite, despite whatever shooting statistics you want to throw back at me. Watch Duncan run around a screen off the ball and watch Lonzo do the same. they are defended completely different b/c one is a much bigger threat than the other.


see this right here

Lonzo isn't capable of being any kind of threat off a play like this b/c he isn't capable of shooting on the move like that. If Lonzo made that shot, the opposing coach would'nt say a word b/c they'd let him do that all night. Duncan does this twice and the opposing coach calls a timeout to ask his defenders what the frick are they doing out there.
Imagine a dribble handoff like that with Zion and Duncan, with BI in the corner as the third option to knock down a wide open corner 3 or drive into the lane.



6% of Lonzo's shots are considered against tight defense for 3. He's shooting 32% on those.
59% of his shots are considered open to wide open for 3. That's basically his 38% from 3 for the year.

Duncan takes 34% of all of his shots as tightly defended 3's, and he shoots them at 37%.
another 34% of his shots are considered open for 3, and they are at 41%
and 18% of his shots are considered wide arse open for 3, and he's shooting those at 48%.


There's a huge difference between the kind of 3 point shooter Duncan is and the kind Lonzo is.
Posted by shel311
McKinney, Texas
Member since Aug 2004
112624 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 3:41 pm to
Duncan Robinson would be a great fit, but man he's not worth $20mil/year. I could be wrong, but that's the number I keep seeing for him. I feel like he's nowhere near that kind of money.




Posted by jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
7657 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:03 pm to
quote:

I feel like he's nowhere near that kind of money.


Going to have to spend it to get him here
Posted by TechTiger
Running an easy 10
Member since Feb 2007
1455 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:07 pm to
quote:

Duncan Robinson would be a great fit, but man he's not worth $20mil/year. I could be wrong, but that's the number I keep seeing for him. I feel like he's nowhere near that kind of money.


Is he worth $16-$18mil though? Because that’s roughly what Bertans and Joe Harris is on, and I would much rather pull the trigger on a movement shooter like Duncan.
Posted by PrayingMantis
Member since Jul 2013
1295 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:18 pm to
Very limited offensive player. A 3 and D with no D. Besides the 3 and D is starting to become outdated.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:27 pm to
After looking at all the shooters that are available, I think the Pels can make the additions they need without trading any picks, which is good since there aren't many sellers right now. It will put more pressure on Zion/Ingram than if you did trade for a Brogdon, but if you bring in enough shooting they should be able to handle it.

I would imagine they have a big board of offseason moves just like they have a big board for the draft. Trading for Dame is probably at the top. Hopefully Bledsoe and Adams for Love is somewhere near the bottom. They just need to keep their options open and hope Griff can sell the right guys on a team that missed the playoffs again.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
13485 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:42 pm to
quote:


Let me ask you this.
When Duncan Robinson stands outside the 3 point line and doesn't move (which is what Lonzo does the majority of the time and not what Duncan would do), do you think his defender is going to leave him to help out on Zion? If he does, who would you rather taking the wide open 3, Lonzo or Duncan Robinson?

We just saw what Lonzo did as the primary perimeter defender. I'm not saying Duncan is a great defender, b/c he isn't, but he's not a terrible defender, and can just as easily do what is asked of Lonzo, which is guard the 2nd or 3rd best perimeter player.


so to answer your question, hell yes he's an upgrade over Ball b/c his offense, even without the ball, is exactly what Zion and BI need, and his defense compared to Ball is pretty negligible.

Duncan's one dimension on offense is elite. Lonzo's one dimension on offense is not elite, despite whatever shooting statistics you want to throw back at me. Watch Duncan run around a screen off the ball and watch Lonzo do the same. they are defended completely different b/c one is a much bigger threat than the other.


see this right here

Lonzo isn't capable of being any kind of threat off a play like this b/c he isn't capable of shooting on the move like that. If Lonzo made that shot, the opposing coach would'nt say a word b/c they'd let him do that all night. Duncan does this twice and the opposing coach calls a timeout to ask his defenders what the frick are they doing out there.
Imagine a dribble handoff like that with Zion and Duncan, with BI in the corner as the third option to knock down a wide open corner 3 or drive into the lane.



6% of Lonzo's shots are considered against tight defense for 3. He's shooting 32% on those.
59% of his shots are considered open to wide open for 3. That's basically his 38% from 3 for the year.

Duncan takes 34% of all of his shots as tightly defended 3's, and he shoots them at 37%.
another 34% of his shots are considered open for 3, and they are at 41%
and 18% of his shots are considered wide arse open for 3, and he's shooting those at 48%.


There's a huge difference between the kind of 3 point shooter Duncan is and the kind Lonzo is.
You are embellishing a bit. I agree Robinson is a much better shooter than Ball. Ball offers some value on the offensive end with his passing that Duncan does not. He also offers better passing in transition whereas Duncan offers little to nothing. Ball is a better rebounder at his position and is also a much better defender, particularly off ball. I am not sure Duncan is a huge upgrade overall if he is getting as much or more than Ball.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:46 pm to
Duncan Robinson is going to easily get over $16M/yr. He's a better defender than Joe Harris or Bertans. He's not great, but he's not a big negative out there. He's also has a skill shooting 3's that very few possess in that he can run full speed around picks, stop on a dime and pull up for 3 and hit that 3 at a high rate, like what Redick and Korver were. That kind of 3 point shooter demands constant attention, and helps spread the floor simply by running around without the ball. They don't take the ball out of Zion's and BI's hands, yet they still contribute to the offense without even shooting.


I think a better question is how much is Tim Hardaway Jr. going to get, and would you rather him, b/c i could easily see a S&T swap with Lonzo for him. I think he's going to get a 4/$80-85 deal. He's a better pure scorer than Lonzo for sure, as well as Duncan, and is still an elite 3 point shooter. Not the best defender, but definitely not a big negative out there.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

Ball offers some value on the offensive end with his passing that Duncan does not


He also offers more turnovers, and more bad shots, which are pretty much turnovers.
Lonzo just had his most productive offensive season of his life by a good bit, and it's still not better than Duncan's offensive ratings from the last 2 years, or even Tim Hardaway's from the last 2 years.

The space that Duncan provides is more important to Zion and BI's offense than Lonzo throwing a few lobs to Zion.


quote:

He also offers better passing in transition whereas Duncan offers little to nothing.

Duncan isn't a PG. He sprints down the court on the fast break and spots up for three, which also leaves either him wide open or the lane wide open. I'd rather Zion be the one starting the fast break than Lonzo.

quote:

Ball is a better rebounder at his position


without a doubt he is. One of the best in the league from the guard position.

quote:

is also a much better defender, particularly off ball.


No. he isn't. I'd even argue that Duncan is a much better off ball defender. Duncan isn't a bad defender, and Lonzo is a good defender at best. I'd say he's about league average, and nothign special.
Lonzo's Drtg has gotten worst every year, and is right where Duncan's has been all 3 years he's been in the league.
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 4:58 pm
Posted by Baron
Member since Dec 2014
1880 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 4:57 pm to
I agree on your “who’s more dangerous standing by the 3pt line” point

quote:

but he's not a terrible defender, and can just as easily do what is asked of Lonzo, which is guard the 2nd or 3rd best perimeter player.


But this isn’t exactly correct. Stats have been posted numerous times here showing that Ball was asked to guard the other teams best perimeter player a lot this year. If I’m remembering correctly, it was one of the highest percentages in the league actually
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 4:58 pm
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

But this isn’t exactly correct. Stats have been posted numerous times here showing that Ball was asked to guard the other teams best perimeter player a lot this year. If I’m remembering correctly, it was one of the highest percentages in the league actually




and he failed miserable at it.

and that doesn't mean he's not a good defender, he's just not an elite one.
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
62446 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:08 pm to
I just can't get past Lonzo and his absolute, willful refusal to fight through screens. Him guarding the other team's top players makes it worse. All you have to do to get your best player free is run a P&R. That's part of why so many guards dropped 40+ on the Pels.
This post was edited on 6/15/21 at 5:09 pm
Posted by TechTiger
Running an easy 10
Member since Feb 2007
1455 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:20 pm to
quote:

Stats have been posted numerous times here showing that Ball was asked to guard the other teams best perimeter player a lot this year


That’s not exactly correct. He was mostly guarding the second or third perimeter scoring options, and still had an average DRT. He has also been terrible as a PnR defender, and can’t fight through a screen to save his life.

A lot of this could have been due our poor overall team defense, especially in PnR situations, but you still don’t see him guarding Fox, Dame, Luka, Murray, D Mitchell, etc and he still gives up tons of points. Look what Scary Terry did to us when Lonzo was the primary defender on him this year.
Posted by Baron
Member since Dec 2014
1880 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:21 pm to
Oh I agree wholeheartedly. My point is that we didn’t just ask him to just guard the 2nd and 3rd option like suggested, though I guess the point Teddy might have been trying to make is we shouldn’t have. That’s why I’ve always said that a team can’t be successful if Lonzo is your highest paid guard (I know I’m preaching to the choir)
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:23 pm to
quote:

I just can't get past Lonzo and his absolute, willful refusal to fight through screens. Him guarding the other team's top players makes it worse. All you have to do to get your best player free is run a P&R. That's part of why so many guards dropped 40+ on the Pels.




and that is the reason i stated that i'd bet Duncan is a better off the ball defender than Lonzo. At least Duncan has the experience as the offensive guy of how to run around screens and get open. He at least understands the angles and other nuances to fight through screens when he's on defense.


Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
29757 posts
Posted on 6/15/21 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

though I guess the point Teddy might have been trying to make is we shouldn’t have.


correct. I said i do'nt think he's a bad defender, as long as he isn't asked to guard the other teams best perimeter player, or a player like Duncan that runs around screens all game.

There are tons of articles out there about how Lonzo would help xyz's team defense. That team is in for a rude awakening if they sign him. If Gary Trent Jr couldn't help Lillard/McCollum, Lonzo sure as shite can't.
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