Should Tom have figured out "It was Barzini all along" himself, and a lot sooner?

I don't remember the finer points but I think Tom needed the experience and instincts of the Don to sift this out.

Barzini kind of took over the meeting. That’s when Vito realized what was going on. Tom probably should have suspected it at that point, but he was more worried about the day to day logistics.

Yup. Barzini talked too much at that meeting.

Even The Don wasn’t sure until Barzini stepped-in at the Commission meeting when Philip Tattaglia was trying to talk shite to Vito about judges and politicians.

Remember, when Vito and Tom got back in the car and Tom asked about insisting that Tattaglia’s people have clean records and The Don told Tom that Tattaglia was a pimp who never could have out-foxed Santino .... but he didn’t realize until the very day that it was Barzini.

Then, at Vito’s funeral everyone, including Tessio, was kissing Barzini’s ring. That was confirmation of two things. (Barzini and Tessio)

Tom couldn’t have realized it because not even Vito realized it until that day, after the meeting

Now, Bruno Tattaglia was the one that killed Luca .... in the book Bruno was an expert with the knife and he stabbed Luca in the hand pinning it to the bar so Luca could be garroted. But it was his older brother Philip who was in charge of the family and the rift over Saliozzo is what had everyone fooled about it being the Tattaglias in the first place.

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Was this something that could have been surmised by a "wartime" consigliere

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I always assumed this was the reason that Michael removed him as consigliere as soon as he became boss and had the Don take over that position.

Geeze spoiler alert next time!

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I always assumed this was the reason that Michael removed him as consigliere as soon as he became boss and had the Don take over that position.

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I think Michael was a little resentful of Tom's status, which got fleshed out more in part II. Tom was Sonny's friend, not Michael's. Michael had his father's advice regardless, so there was no reason to tell Tom he was "out." It was some kind of loyalty test. And then later we find out Michael thinks he can make Tom some kind of corporate attorney for the Corleone Family going legit. So it's a little convoluted for Michael to act like Tom needed to be removed because of the Barzini thing.