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Mandalorian and Grogu might surpass projections. . .a little

Posted on 5/24/26 at 9:00 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84149 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 9:00 pm
It has an outside shot at a bigger 4-day opening than Solo. Needs a big Monday

It was projected to hit $81 million for the 3-day. . .$97 million for the 4-day

It is now projected to hit $82 million for the 3-day and $98 million for the 4-day

Solo hit $101 million on it's 4-day run

LINK

The projections for WW was $160-169. They are saying this could hit $69 million Internationally, putting the total in the top part of that projection.

Not a bad showing, all told. Not the gangbusters that I was hoping the IP would receive. . .but definitely not a flop, either
Posted by OWLFAN86
Erotic Novelist
Member since Jun 2004
196666 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 9:02 pm to
I thought Solo was a decent flick
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84149 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 9:03 pm to
quote:


I thought Solo was a decent flick
Same

Caught strays from coming after TLJ
Posted by JinFL
Duuuval
Member since Oct 2004
4461 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 10:15 pm to
quote:

"Solo's" Memorial Day weekend gross was $103 million, with "Mandalorian" expected to make $102 million this year. That's even worse; adjusted for inflation, $103 million today is $139 million. $37 million behind over the long weekend.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
60122 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 10:22 pm to
Was hoping it could get to 100 mil, but looks like it might come up short

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Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84149 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

$103 million today is $139 million.
jesus

Inflation got really out of control for a bit there
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84149 posts
Posted on 5/24/26 at 11:26 pm to
Well. . .shite

Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24221 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 2:58 am to


cooked
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
95693 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 5:02 am to
And Disney has reportedly played games with "production budget" - reporting to California the widely quoted $165m, but omitting big items like the salaries of Pascal, Weaver and Favreau.

And if that budget is really over $200m along with some estimates the marketing could be much higher than $100m, then the profit point might be higher.

Even if we assume the break even point is lower - say $450m, Solo didn't make that and this one is worse. And inflation means much fewer tickets sold to boot.
This post was edited on 5/25/26 at 5:04 am
Posted by SouthEasternKaiju
SouthEast... you figure it out
Member since Aug 2021
47346 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 5:50 am to
Solo lost money.
Posted by rebelrouser
Columbia, SC
Member since Feb 2013
13287 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 7:41 am to
LOL. Disney opens a Star Wars movie on Memorial Day weekend with no competition and will lose money. And I am sure they lied about their costs too. This will be a nice treat for those w/ Disney+ who managed to make it through S. 3.
Posted by Ace Midnight
Between sanity and madness
Member since Dec 2006
95693 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 7:46 am to
The only saving grace for this is that Grogu is one of the very few "Disney" star wars products that moves toys and merch. So, if they get close to "even" on the film, they might consider it a win in the secondary market.

It will also generate some ad revenue on streaming.
Posted by Purple Spoon
Hoth
Member since Feb 2005
20907 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 8:36 am to
If true, get ready for 5 more.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
35420 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 12:08 pm to
quote:


I thought Solo was a decent flick


It is; I agree with others that part of the issue is that it came at a bad time with little good will.

The villain was also not terribly interesting.

The train heist portion is great though... hard to go wrong with a good train heist.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
35420 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 12:10 pm to
quote:


The only saving grace for this is that Grogu is one of the very few "Disney" star wars products that moves toys and merch. So, if they get close to "even" on the film, they might consider it a win in the secondary market.


Very good point.

People tend to forget that, for all the money the movies made, it was small potatoes compared to toys and other merch.

If Grogu is that marketable, it could easily be worth it to get his likeness out there to a larger audience than the streaming service could pull off.
Posted by ThuperThumpin
Member since Dec 2013
9383 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

I thought Solo was a decent flick


Outside of Andor and Rogue One it was the best Disney Star Wars production imo.
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
84149 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 12:40 pm to
quote:

Outside of Andor and Rogue One it was the best Disney Star Wars production imo.
My only caveat. . .Force Awakens was good, but it was ruined by the subsequent films

It opened up some interesting story threads. Had the 2nd movie done anything other than amputate and cauterize them, we would remember TFA much differently.

Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
79460 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:07 pm to
I am wondering if disney is testing releasing some of their TV series as “movies” first.

this is pretty common in Anime.

Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
70909 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:10 pm to
The Cope is strong with this movie. It’s got the same shills spouting the same talking points from the MCU in early of last year. Coincidentally this movie is tracking like the early MCU movies last year.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
70909 posts
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:12 pm to
They thought they needed to get something out there for the 40 and they don’t have anything so they went with their most popular D+ property and made it as bland as they could so it wouldn’t do further damage to DSW.
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