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re: Mandalorian and Grogu might surpass projections. . .a little

Posted on 5/26/26 at 12:26 pm to
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43202 posts
Posted on 5/26/26 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

insult people


OMG O NO he he hurt your feelings by calling you a Disney accountant! The horror! Again, pussy.

quote:

You’re laughing at it because his lie reinforces your worldview. Why can’t you debate the truth?


What the hell are you talking about? I'm not a Disney fan or a Star Wars guy. More than half their movies and shows have sucked. If a show sucks, I'm not going to watch it. Yall are the ones watching crap like the Acolyte and Boba Fett bitching about it at the same time supporting it.

quote:

That’s the real mark of a “pussy” and we both know you’ll bend the knee if you care to meet at sonic


Posted by BlackAdam
Member since Jan 2016
7236 posts
Posted on 5/26/26 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

Uh oh, the Disney accountants have arrived. If this movie has a decent hold on Tuesday and Wednesday, they'll be saying it has to at least $700 million to reak even. Can't wait for more of their fake math.


Maybe read a trade. They are reporting $160 million in production and $175 million P&A. That means a box office and tax credit of $625. The California tax credit was reported at $22 million. leaving $603 from box office.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72144 posts
Posted on 5/26/26 at 1:20 pm to
+ marketing being reported at $100m worldwide so it’s higher just with what’s being reported and we know Disney lies about their budgets so it’s likely even higher. I just don’t get these arguments when the proof is Disney moving away from their original plans surrounding the sequel trilogy which brought in around an average of well over a billion per movie. Lucasfilm had planned to put out a movie per year based on those characters but had to stop 7 years ago because they weren’t profitable. It’s cope and some ignorance.
This post was edited on 5/26/26 at 1:21 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
85123 posts
Posted on 5/26/26 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

Uh oh, the Disney accountants have arrived. If this movie has a decent hold on Tuesday and Wednesday, they'll be saying it has to at least $700 million to reak even. Can't wait for more of their fake math.
last I read is between $400 and $600 million

Most are estimating more narrowly 500-550

I hope it hits that.
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24872 posts
Posted on 5/27/26 at 11:54 pm to
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-64% drop would be devastating
This post was edited on 5/28/26 at 12:02 am
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24872 posts
Posted on 5/28/26 at 7:58 pm to
New York Times

quote:

The movie, which cost $300 million to make and market, was expected to collect about $102 million from Thursday through Monday at domestic theaters.

oof

yeah it's going to have to hit close to $600 million to be in the black
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27935 posts
Posted on 5/28/26 at 8:03 pm to


Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24872 posts
Posted on 5/28/26 at 8:10 pm to
I know, these articles with facts are super scary
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72144 posts
Posted on 5/28/26 at 8:21 pm to
They’ve been wrong 100% of the time for the better part of a decade now but still act like it’s everyone else that’s crazy. Cultish behavior
This post was edited on 5/28/26 at 8:22 pm
Posted by rebelrouser
Columbia, SC
Member since Feb 2013
13405 posts
Posted on 5/29/26 at 10:43 am to
...and its a flop. Pretty bad considering it opened on a holiday weekend with no real competition.
Posted by Madking
Member since Apr 2016
72144 posts
Posted on 5/29/26 at 11:55 am to
“But, but, but, this is the kind of Star Wars we need”


The cope is unreal
Posted by iwyLSUiwy
I'm your huckleberry
Member since Apr 2008
43202 posts
Posted on 5/29/26 at 12:02 pm to
I couldn't get past Episode 1 of S2 so this wasn't for me, but I feel like if they were going to make this, it would have been better after season 1 or 2 when the popularity was at it's peak. I feel like most people don't want to go see a movie that is just going to be two more hours of something they've already watched 30 hours of.
Posted by Jay Are
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2014
6283 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

Maybe read a trade. They are reporting $160 million in production and $175 million P&A.


A trade like the Hollywood Reporter? Variety? Like Deadline? All of which have estimated the marketing as at-least-but-around $100 million?

"Estimated" because anyone reading a trade would understand that the marketing numbers are not reported by the studios, are not directly related or connected to the budget of the movie, and are a guess made by trade reporters based on assumptions of the market costs of advertisements combined with confirmed ancillary brand deals.

So, yeah, dude. Maybe read a trade instead of repeating the garbage.
Posted by RLDSC FAN
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Member since Nov 2008
60702 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

Estimated" because anyone reading a trade would understand that the marketing numbers are not reported by the studios, are not directly related or connected to the budget of the movie


Exactly. This board is obsessed with adding marketing to the budget, but they conveniently leave out all the ancillary profits the studios make
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27935 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Exactly. This board is obsessed with adding marketing to the budget, but they conveniently leave out all the ancillary profits the studios make

Its funny because I haven't heard them bring up how much they lost on the 3 seasons of The Mandalorian TV show that cost over $350 million to make and made $0 at the box office.

Id like to know how they can make that make sense in their heads but the movie will somehow be a loss if it doesnt make $600+ million
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:22 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
85123 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:29 pm to
quote:

Its funny because I haven't heard them bring up how much they lost on the 3 seasons of The Mandalorian TV show that cost over $350 million to make and made $0 at the box office.
Because TV shows on a subscription service make money from subscriptions.

The value of the show is the metric of how many subscribers were gained/maintained by the show.

There is no way to know that figure, except from Disney
quote:

Id like to know how they can make that make sense in their heads but the movie will somehow be a loss if it doesnt make $600+ million
That 500-550 million to break even is what all the trades have been saying, consistently

400-600 million was the broad estimate initially. People saying more than 600 million, I have no clue where they got that number.
Posted by sgallo3
Lake Charles
Member since Sep 2008
27935 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:32 pm to
quote:

Because TV shows on a subscription service make money from subscriptions.

The value of the show is the metric of how many subscribers were gained/maintained by the show.

There is no way to know that figure, except from Disney

At least you understand that. Adding movies to the streaming service has the same effect. It's why you see netflix spending 300 million on the electric state and more on the knives out trilogy.

Disney will make money off this to at least pay for making it and then get to add it to their streaming library.
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 2:33 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
85123 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 2:39 pm to
quote:

At least you understand that.
I think it is odd that you didn't
quote:

Adding movies to the streaming service has the same effect.
Not really, unless the release is expected to drive subs. . .

Original shows drive subs because you can't get them elsewhere, and you have to stick around until the show ends
quote:

It's why you see netflix spending 300 million on the electric state and more on the knives out trilogy.

Yeah, exclusive releases of widely anticipated properties can drive subscriptions

Pretty sure Electric State is seen as a failure, though.
quote:

Disney will make money off this to at least pay for making it
Maybe, and I hope they do, but it is looking very unlikely
Posted by Proximo
Member since Aug 2011
24872 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

Exactly. This board is obsessed with adding marketing to the budget, but they conveniently leave out all the ancillary profits the studios make

So you have better information than The Hollywood Reporter’s Lucasfilm source? (And the New York Times’ published budget).

Because that’s exactly what they published in their trade
This post was edited on 5/30/26 at 3:52 pm
Posted by Roaad
White Privilege Broker
Member since Aug 2006
85123 posts
Posted on 5/30/26 at 4:03 pm to
Toy department is separate from the film department. Lucasfilm can make money from toy sales associated with the movie, that wouldn't be counted in the film's P/L

It is a good point, in theory, but tough to materialize.


The P/L would be tough to quantify, even if they were the same department, since the Star Wars IP and the Mandalorian IP already generate X dollars, you would have to show a change in that revenue associated with this film.
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