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Message
re: Why are NFL scouts so useless?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:51 am to RB10
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:51 am to RB10
quote:
They see the next Cam Newton/Josh Allen in Richardson, IF they can fix his issues (accuracy and decision making).
It can be argued Cam Newton was never really fixed, and he rode a 16 game hot streak to a MVP award. He was always inaccurate with questionable decisions making.
Josh Allen is one of the very, very few that went from inaccurate to accurate at the NFL level.
1
Posted on 11/4/24 at 8:01 am to Jcorye1
quote:
can be argued Cam Newton was never really fixed, and he rode a 16 game hot streak to a MVP award
lol wut
Posted on 11/4/24 at 8:05 am to Lester Earl
quote:7/11 of Cam’s seasons he had a completion percentage in the 50s
lol wut
He never did actually learn to become an accurate passer
For example:
Allen’s progression
52%
58%
69%
63%
63%
67.%
64%
Cam
60%
58%
62%
59%
59%
53%
59%
68%
56%
66%
55.%
One shows a clear “fix”, the other is just a roller coaster
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 8:12 am
Posted on 11/4/24 at 8:05 am to cbree88
Teams are desperate to find their franchise QB. Nothing else really matters until you land that person. As for Richardson the guy has played 10 total games? And a few of those have been good. Not sure why we are saying he is good or bad at this point.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 8:13 am to Jack Ruby
quote:
The entire Chiefs organization had to be convinced Patrick Mahomes was their next QB.
Brett Veach found him while scouting an OLineman for Texas Tech 2 yrs before his draft. Some guys are really good. Some guys aren't, just like every job field.
Would be interesting to see how many solid picks Veach has had/had a part in vs busts. Mahomes is a diamond in the rough but he was also great in college - just happened to be on a crap team.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:04 am to castorinho
quote:
It's about drafting guys that have things you CAN'T teach, with the hopes that you'll help them develop the things you CAN teach
And is why everyone that follows the Saints wants to
every time they here about RAS. And that front office loves telling us how smart they are and why RAS is a better indicator of what us peasant fans see when it's suspected they reached on a guy
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:13 pm to cbree88
quote:
They miss on players constantly. I would get fired quickly if I was that bad at my job. lol
Do baseball player suck at their job? Most will get out 75-70% of the time. The perfect is not the enemy of the good.
quote:
Anthony Richardson is the best recent example
He has raw talent but limited experience maybe could be better with better development but mostly it was taking a flyer on potential upside.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:17 pm to TexasTiger08
quote:
I think many times it is due to overthinking. Any idiot could see how flawed Richardson was. Scouts desperately convinced themselves that he had a high ceiling due to his “tools”. I think these guys fall in love with traits or players and stop looking at these guys objectively.
Alternative they are aware of the flaws and tho the potential upside is worth the risk. Smart people understand sometimes, most of the time in a lot of cases it won’t work but it might so they take a flyer.
Also idiot owners have veto power over scouts and GM/coaches.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:25 pm to cbree88
Imagine you’re in the market for a house. There are two homes that are the same price:
One is relatively new construction and appears to be in solid shape. However, the neighborhood it’s in sucks, it’s really inconvenient for your commute, bad local schools, poor drainage, etc.
The other is in a great school district, never floods, convenient for your job, safe neighborhood, and has generally everything you want in a location. The problem is, the house is in really poor shape. You’ll have to replace the HVAC and roof immediately, update the interior, and who knows what internal issues could exist.
Which house do you buy?
If you buy the fixer-upper, you could develop it into the perfect home. You might pull up the old carpet and linoleum and find gorgeous wood floors underneath. Or, you might discover termites, hidden water damage, and a foundation problem. If you buy the house in better shape, it will function as a house, but you’ll be held back by the neighborhood it’s in and always be looking to trade up.
Scouts often find both kinds of prospects, they do their due diligence to guess at how many hidden issues could exist vs how many obvious issues can be repaired. They decide what neighborhoods they can live with and which ones are just too far out of the way.
One is relatively new construction and appears to be in solid shape. However, the neighborhood it’s in sucks, it’s really inconvenient for your commute, bad local schools, poor drainage, etc.
The other is in a great school district, never floods, convenient for your job, safe neighborhood, and has generally everything you want in a location. The problem is, the house is in really poor shape. You’ll have to replace the HVAC and roof immediately, update the interior, and who knows what internal issues could exist.
Which house do you buy?
If you buy the fixer-upper, you could develop it into the perfect home. You might pull up the old carpet and linoleum and find gorgeous wood floors underneath. Or, you might discover termites, hidden water damage, and a foundation problem. If you buy the house in better shape, it will function as a house, but you’ll be held back by the neighborhood it’s in and always be looking to trade up.
Scouts often find both kinds of prospects, they do their due diligence to guess at how many hidden issues could exist vs how many obvious issues can be repaired. They decide what neighborhoods they can live with and which ones are just too far out of the way.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:29 pm to RB10
quote:I would put forth the notion that "decision making, i.e., intellect, IQ, etc., is as much an unteachable tool as speed, fast twitch, etc.
Exactly. They see the next Cam Newton/Josh Allen in Richardson, IF they can fix his issues (accuracy and decision making).
If a person is prone to making dumb decisions, it should absolutely be accounted for in deciding things you can and can't teach.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 12:33 pm to FightinTigersDammit
quote:
Right. Often, scouts ignore guys who make plays because they lack measurables
You see this A LOT at WR too. Guys getting drafted on height and 40 time alone.
Guys like Cupp and Nukua were fortunate enough to get drafted to the right situation, otherwise their 4.65 forty times might have had them on the outside looking in.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:18 pm to cbree88
AR is the most obvious bust of all time
Posted on 11/4/24 at 2:43 pm to cbree88
I don't think the scouts are the problem as much as bad owners and GMs
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:43 pm to cbree88
I think what you saw with Anthony Richardson was a GM who fell in love with his “tools” and was willing to ignore the red flags brought up by the scouts that watched him play week in and week out because he thought his coaching staff could turn him into the next Josh Allen.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:26 pm to cbree88
I think the scouts are reporting accurately and the coach/GM are choosing whether to listen.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:31 pm to cbree88
All I know is I wish I would have become one with my background in sports. Good job, travel to some nice cities, and if course good pay.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 10:34 pm to idlewatcher
quote:
Would be interesting to see how many solid picks Veach has had/had a part in vs busts
Veach may be the best GM currently working in the NFL. If not, he's easily top 3.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 11:27 pm to TexasTiger08
quote:
Any idiot could see how flawed Richardson was
I know fantasy talk isn’t condoned on this board cause TD has a fantasy board… but the hype to draft him in fantasy in early rounds above several stable QBs was ridiculous. Tons of “credible” sites had their mock drafts with him as like the 3-4 QB to take.
He only played, what, 6 games last season? And he was obviously an inaccurate QB in college.
Gotta love the Neanderthals in fantasy that have never watched a down of college and/or not follow the ESPN hype machine.
As a Panthers fan it’s sucks because Tepper fell for the same ESPN hype of Young :(
ETA: sorry, random rant. Too many rumplemintz
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 11/5/24 at 1:01 am to cbree88
quote:
I would get fired quickly if I was that bad at my job. lol
Fortunately, the bar for success is much lower for fry cooks.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 7:31 am to UltimateHog
quote:
And yet people swear by recruiting rankings from amateur "scouts" on high school kids.
Recruiting is a numbers game where quantity of quality is most important.
Drafting is a precision game where quality of quality is most important.
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