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re: TNF - Pats at Bears - 7:15 - Prime.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:16 pm to Kansas City King
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:16 pm to Kansas City King
quote:
That’s game. Pats lose!!
Based on the end of the first half, the pats could still technically score 10.4 TDs
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:16 pm to Kansas City King
Caleb got bailed out big time. Ben Johnson has some balls.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:17 pm to Kansas City King
They need to dial back the “kicking balls” in the NFL.
Dude just hit a career long in a historically difficult place to kick and had 6 or 7 more yards.
Dude just hit a career long in a historically difficult place to kick and had 6 or 7 more yards.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:17 pm to UnluckyTiger
quote:
Caleb got bailed out big time. Ben Johnson has some balls.
I’d say both those guys got bailed out
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:21 pm to RB10
quote:
in a historically difficult place to kick and had 6 or 7 more yards.
There’s zero wind there tonight so it’s not quite like the typical conditions.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:25 pm to CMBears1259
quote:
There’s zero wind there tonight so it’s not quite like the typical conditions.
When every kicker in the league, including a guy who’s career long was 55, can easily hit from 63+ then the ball needs to be dialed back.
Not too long ago that was the record and back then those 60+ yarders were happening in domes.
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 10:26 pm
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:25 pm to CMBears1259
Yeah, it’s quite nice for a late October Night in Chicago. Perfect conditions, not kicking in the shite.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:32 pm to wildtigercat93
I will stand on I think the 58-yard FG attempt up 27-21 was not a good decision. It worked, but I can’t wait until that data gets added into the announcers analytics model.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:32 pm to drizztiger
That’s the type of call that works in the regular season and fails in the playoffs. Has Dan Campbell written all over it 
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:33 pm to RB10
quote:
When every kicker in the league, including a guy who’s career long was 55, can easily hit from 63+ then the ball needs to be dialed back.
Meh
A lot of guys have the leg but you still have to hit it straight
Sometimes a 10 handicap golfer can get a nice straight 300 yard drive but it aint often
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:33 pm to RB10
quote:
including a guy who’s career long was 55, can easily hit from 63+ then the ball needs to be dialed back
If I heard correctly I think your numbers are wrong, Santos’ long was 53 yards before tonight and the winning kick was 55 yards so it’s not a crazy difference.
ETA: just heard it was 58 yards. I stand corrected
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 10:37 pm
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:36 pm to UnluckyTiger
quote:
That’s the type of call that works in the regular season and fails in the playoffs. Has Dan Campbell written all over it
And people know me a bit, I’m a fan of analytics and models, but that shite goes right into a good decision. Which it was not. IMO.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:36 pm to Bunk Moreland
They are playing TLC Me So Horny while showing highlights?
Posted on 10/22/26 at 11:39 pm to drizztiger
It was 4th-and-long, so going for it wasn’t an option.
I’m sure Johnson knows his kicker’s range. Even on the 53-yarder he missed right before that, it hit the upright (so not like he shanked it), and drilled it pretty high up. It’s a very nice evening in Chicago, little wind, good temperature…
So Johnson probably thought it was at least 50/50 of a successful FG. So a 50% chance of “definitely” ending the game. On the 50% chance of a miss, he’s giving up 30-40 yds of field position, but the Pats still have to drive more than 50 yards.
I bet the analytics would say it was the right decision to attempt the FG.
I’m sure Johnson knows his kicker’s range. Even on the 53-yarder he missed right before that, it hit the upright (so not like he shanked it), and drilled it pretty high up. It’s a very nice evening in Chicago, little wind, good temperature…
So Johnson probably thought it was at least 50/50 of a successful FG. So a 50% chance of “definitely” ending the game. On the 50% chance of a miss, he’s giving up 30-40 yds of field position, but the Pats still have to drive more than 50 yards.
I bet the analytics would say it was the right decision to attempt the FG.
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 11:42 pm
Posted on 10/23/26 at 12:07 am to Buckeye Fan 19
quote:Which analytics is the the real question. A blanket term like analytics says to do this is nonsense.
I bet the analytics would say it was the right decision to attempt the FG.
Posted on 10/23/26 at 12:23 am to drizztiger
quote:
Which analytics is the the real question. A blanket term like analytics says to do this is nonsense.
Sure, there are a variety of models. Some would probably say kick, some would probably say punt (none would say go for it).
My opinion (which I can’t prove) is if you could simulate 10,000 simulations of FG attempts tonight from that exact situation, compared to 10,000 simulations of punting from that exact situation, choosing to attempt the FG would result in more Bears victories.
This post was edited on 10/23/26 at 12:24 am
Posted on 10/23/26 at 7:40 am to Cosmo
quote:
A lot of guys have the leg but you still have to hit it straight
Sometimes a 10 handicap golfer can get a nice straight 300 yard drive but it aint often
That’s a perfect analogy since they’re literally talking about rolling back the golf ball technology because they go too far and too straight for the pros.
This post was edited on 10/23/26 at 7:42 am
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