re: Reece Davis is the MVP of day three

Just... wow

I watched NFL Network day 2, not watching anything but tracker for day 3.
I laughed at the talking heads the first day, saw the various Mel Kiper remarks online, and honestly thought y'all were exaggerating a bit for humor's sake.

This is insane, unhinged. You could tell the other guys wanted so bad to tell him to shut the frick up, but couldn't on air.

I think he's lost his mind, ala Keith Olbermann

Chat GPT on Kiper for the last 20 years in projecting QBs.

Alright, let’s dive into it — assessing Mel Kiper Jr.’s accuracy in evaluating quarterback talent over the last 20 years (2005–2024) is a fascinating project.

High-level summary first:
• Kiper is respected for his deep research and historical knowledge, but like all draft analysts, he has not been highly predictive when it comes to quarterbacks.
• QB is the hardest position to project, and Mel has had some big hits, some big misses, and a lot of average calls.
• Overall, his QB evaluations are better than the random media narrative, but worse than the best NFL front offices.

I’ll break this down for you in a simple structure:

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Mel Kiper’s QB Evaluation Accuracy (2005–2024)

Type Examples Summary
Big Wins Loved Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Josh Allen (despite low college completion %), Justin Herbert Accurately identified long-term starters and stars, even when there were doubts.
Big Misses Jimmy Clausen (Top 5 grade, bust), Jake Locker (Top 10), Johnny Manziel (Top 5), Zach Wilson (Top 2 in 2021) Overhyped players who flamed out quickly.
Underrated Stars He was lower on Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts (had Day 2 grades) Struggled to predict some of the modern dual-threat breakouts.
Good Predictions vs. Consensus Had doubts about Blaine Gabbert, Paxton Lynch, Christian Ponder, who all flopped When he trusted his scouting over hype, he often nailed bust predictions.
Trends Favors size, arm strength, and “traditional” pocket traits Sometimes slow to fully embrace new dual-threat or non-traditional QB playstyles.



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General Observations
• When he trusted his own board rather than hype (e.g., doubting Gabbert or Ponder), he was often right.
• When he bet heavily on traits over production (like with Clausen or Locker), he often missed.
• New era mobile QBs (Lamar, Hurts) surprised him — he was a little old school about mobility at first, though he’s adapted more recently.
• Overall predictive accuracy on QBs is about 50/50 — roughly matching NFL GM success rates (because even they miss big on QBs).

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Examples: Major Cases

Year QB Kiper’s Grade Reality Hit or Miss?
2008 Matt Ryan #1 overall player Multi-year Pro Bowler, MVP Hit
2010 Jimmy Clausen Top 5 player Massive Bust Miss
2011 Cam Newton Top pick, very high on him MVP, Super Bowl Hit
2011 Jake Locker Top 10 grade Out of league quickly Miss
2017 Patrick Mahomes Mid-to-late 1st round grade Arguably GOAT trajectory Mild Miss (but NFL missed too)
2018 Josh Allen Supported him despite concerns Superstar Big Hit
2018 Lamar Jackson Late 1st/early 2nd MVP Mild Miss
2020 Justin Herbert High grade despite “college questions” Superstar Hit
2021 Zach Wilson Very high on him Bust Miss



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If you had to give Mel Kiper a “QB Scouting Grade”
• Compared to the NFL: Better than average GM results (~50% hit rate), but not elite.
• Compared to other analysts: Top 25%, ahead of most major media guys, but guys like Daniel Jeremiah (more recently) might be trending better.
• Score: B to B- overall for QB evaluation over the last 20 years.

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Summary of Strengths and Weaknesses

Strengths Weaknesses
Excellent at evaluating arm talent, mechanics, leadership. Overweights traditional size/traits, underweights improvisational ability early on.
Good instincts on bust potential when media gets hyped. Sometimes blinded by pre-draft hype, especially from blue blood schools.
Adapting over time — more respect now for mobility and creativity. Missed the full breakout potential of guys like Mahomes and Jackson.



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It's not some liberal or virtue signaling thing. He had him rated as his 2nd best qb so when he's not getting picked he gets mad.

Kiper is ephen unhinged. The NFL has been terrible at evaluating QBs for 50 years? Then he says his draft projections have never fallen this far in 47 years. So he has projected where most QBs were taken (according to him) and at the same time the NFL has no clue about how to evaluate QBs? That would also be an indictment on him.

Rece is not my favorite TV guy, but this was as fine of a moment as anyone has had on draft coverage. ‘Mel, right or wrong, Sanders fell, and now he can deal with it by proving everyone wrong or whine about it (like you) and prove everyone right.’

That moron was not in any of these interviews. What a clown. He has no idea. It's a job interview. Obviously he was not impressive. Espn pushes their agenda when they get one.

Even from the beginning of the broadcast you could sense things were on edge and they were trying to soothe Kiper by saying things like "look at all these people here Mel. Isn't it incredible! and all because of you and your vision...blah, blah."

But it didn't appease him. He sat there sullen and simmering until Sanders was drafted then let it blow as if the previous two days of meltdowns weren't enough. He behaved like a toddler having a tantrum out in public as his parents Davis and Riddick tried to calm him down while not giving into him or beating his butt in public.

You could tell that they all knew it was coming and finally Rece Davis and Louis Riddick had had enough. Wish we could see some video of what was going on off camera.

Must admit it that i found it all entertaining but I am sad for all the other kids who had to be dragged through this (Dart) and didn't get the proper coverage (all of them not named Sanders.)

Man I kept hearing about Mel but didn’t watch anything yesterday. You can legitimately tell by the panels body language that they were sick of his shite and it was probably a lot worse than what was on TV.