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re: Herbstreit pick FSU to win the MNC over USC

Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:03 am to
Posted by Black n Gold
Member since Feb 2009
15963 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:03 am to
So he is predicting Alabama to win the SEC, but not make the CG? How is that possible? They would have to beat LSU, and drop a game to a team outside the Top 25.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:03 am to
I'm surprised that there haven't been more people picking Oregon. To me, they are the safest non-chalk pick. And they've been on the cusp for a decade.

FSU is a decent pick if you're trying to not pick the SEC. Which a lot of pundits are because they are bored with the SEC, since most national pundits aren't SEC guys (ESPN's always drawn heavily on former Big Ten players and coaches)
Posted by Mullen3:16
Nerlins, LA
Member since May 2012
4708 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:03 am to
quote:

Did no one notice that almost nobody was in the same hemisphere as LSU and Bama last year, and that many of those teams didn't improve all that much?


And you know this how exactly?
Posted by Black n Gold
Member since Feb 2009
15963 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:05 am to
quote:

And you know this how exactly?


Colin Cowherd told him so.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:10 am to
quote:

Even if they go undefeated, they're not getting in if they are not one of the two best teams out there


If there are 3 major unbeatens, they could be left out especially if they other 2 are: LSU/Bama and USC/Oregon. An undefeated FSU (or any BCS team not from the Big East) will be ranked ahead of any 1 team, even a 1 loss team from the SEC.
Posted by loweralabamatrojan
Lower Alabama
Member since Oct 2006
13252 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:10 am to
quote:

I'm surprised that there haven't been more people picking Oregon. To me, they are the safest non-chalk pick. And they've been on the cusp for a decade
"Johnny-Come-Latelies" to the CF elite. Just won their first ever BCS game, and it was not a "style points" kind of win.

I think they're potentially good enough to win it all though. If they beat SC in the P12CG, I'd probably put money on them.

Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:13 am to
quote:

I'm surprised that there haven't been more people picking Oregon. To me, they are the safest non-chalk pick


when i was in Vegas in late June, Oregon had lower odds than FSU for FWIW. What I'm surprised about is more people are not staying away from both USC and Oregon since they will most likely have to play twice.

quote:

FSU is a decent pick if you're trying to not pick the SEC. Which a lot of pundits are because they are bored with the SEC


there is no one in the B1G you could honestly pick, the team I'm surprised is not getting more run for the reason you stated is OU. If you don't want to pick an SEC team, then OU is a good pick, managable schedule, name brand team, lots of talent, returning QB etc.
This post was edited on 8/23/12 at 9:16 am
Posted by Black n Gold
Member since Feb 2009
15963 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:13 am to
quote:

If they beat SC in the P12CG, I'd probably put money on them.


Oregon would have to beat USC twice to get into the CG. That isn't happening.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:20 am to
quote:

What I'm surprised about is more people are not staying away from both USC and Oregon since they will most likely have to play twice.


Exactly!

If the BCS participants have to be undefeated this year due to how things shake out...you can forget about the Pac 12 Champion unless it's a wild card team like Utah, UCLA (the teams in the South who don't have to play Oregon reg. season) or OSU, Wazzu (the teams in the North that don't have to play USC in the reg. season) It's too damn tough to beat a team twice...and frankly all the projected good teams are playing each other from each division during the regular season.

Pac 12 plays too many conference games. They always screw themselves like the ol' Round Robin. If you're having a championship game...more Tennessee Tech!

This post was edited on 8/23/12 at 9:21 am
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:33 am to
quote:

It's too damn tough to beat a team twice


yeah, you don't have to remind LSU fans of that

since the first game is at USC and the potential 2nd would be at the winner of the first most likely, I can see picking SC.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 9:40 am to
You see it in all sports. I honestly feel that having to beat a team twice is so unfair to the victor - that (regardless of how good the loser is and their subsequent record) if you lose to the BCS Title participant during the regular season - you are excluded from being their opponent in the title game. I really feel it's fundamentally unfair and punishing the team (the winner) who should be getting the breaks from the system.
This post was edited on 8/23/12 at 9:40 am
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:05 am to
quote:

m surprised that there haven't been more people picking Oregon. To me, they are the safest non-chalk pick. And they've been on the cusp for a decade.


They'd have to beat USC twice and assuming that happens, there would likely be an SEC team in the title game. Oregon hasn't looked impressive against the last two SEC teams they faced in the lights (Auburn, Fairley ate their O-line alive & LSU, which also ate them alive).

I kinda want to see LSU play USC, just so everyone can finally shut up about the 2003 "shared" title and Herbie can shut it about no team wanting to play USC late in the year.
Posted by Zamoro10
Member since Jul 2008
14743 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:08 am to
quote:

I kinda want to see LSU play USC, just so everyone can finally shut up about the 2003 "shared" title


What would a 2012 title game have to do with 2003?

2003 is ancient history...as such, like all history, people will always talk about it and argue. Matt Barkley was 13 years old...nothing he does or LSU does...changes the past.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:19 am to
quote:

You see it in all sports. I honestly feel that having to beat a team twice is so unfair to the victor


I have said the same thing many times in the past. I said that back in 1996 that it was unfair to FSU to have to play Florida again.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:21 am to
quote:

Oregon hasn't looked impressive against the last two SEC teams they faced in the lights (Auburn, Fairley ate their O-line alive

Fairley was a beast, but Auburn won on a last second FG, hard to say Oregon wasn't impressive when they lost on the last play. The final was right on the Vegas number.
Posted by Baloo
Formerly MDGeaux
Member since Sep 2003
49645 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:33 am to
quote:

there is no one in the B1G you could honestly pick, the team I'm surprised is not getting more run for the reason you stated is OU. If you don't want to pick an SEC team, then OU is a good pick, managable schedule, name brand team, lots of talent, returning QB etc.

Wisconsin. Though I don't think anyone gets out of the Big Ten unscathed.

Oklahoma had a pretty horrid defense last year. Well, not horrid, but they had a tendency to give up huge plays, a bad habit in the Big 12 -- land of big play offenses. Honestly, the Big 12 has about four or five contenders for the conference crown, which means an unbeaten team is incredibly unlikely. They also have to travel to Morgantown. I actually think Okie St might repeat.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:44 am to
Morgantown and Blacksburg are the biggest stumbling blocks for OU and FSU.

I'm not as big a believer in the rest of the Big XII(-4+2) conference. I see only 2 legit contenders, OU and WVU and I think stepping up in class a little and traveling to new places will derail WVU. All OU has to do is win that one imo.

KSU would be my 3rd pick, i see OSU returning to 9-4 type of level I could see UT being in the mix, but I might be Charlie Brown thinking they won't pull the ball back again.
Posted by dcrews
Houston, TX
Member since Feb 2011
32130 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:55 am to
quote:

Fairley was a beast, but Auburn won on a last second FG, hard to say Oregon wasn't impressive when they lost on the last play. The final was right on the Vegas number.


Only thing is, Auburn's defense wasn't exactly stellar that year, with the exception of Fairley and even they slowed down Oregon. LSU came right back a year later with the top defense and just plain dominated their offense.

As for the USC comment, everyone has wanted to see LSU play USC since 2003. Not that it would have any effect on the past, but you always hear about how awesome USC is at the end of every year, but we never get to see them play an SEC team.
Posted by bbap
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2006
97017 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 10:57 am to
maybe once this decade (or in the last 10 years) they will be right about fsu. doubt its this year.
Posted by H-Town Tiger
Member since Nov 2003
61014 posts
Posted on 8/23/12 at 11:13 am to
quote:

Only thing is, Auburn's defense wasn't exactly stellar that year, with the exception of Fairley and even they slowed down Oregon


Oregon is not known for their stellar defense and they also slowed down Auburn's high powered O. It was still a close game.

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