re: DAT: Offseason Thread - Spring Training THIS WEEK!

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It looks like Cleveland is in sell mode:

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2018-19 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 2, 2018 at 4:37pm CDT

1. Bryce Harper Dodgers. Fourteen years, $420MM.
2. Manny Machado Phillies. Thirteen years, $390MM
3. Patrick Corbin Yankees. Six years, $129MM.
4. Dallas Keuchel Nationals. Four years, $82MM
Keuchel, 31 in January, won the AL Cy Young award in 2015 and has since settled in as a solid but not quite spectacular starting pitcher. He and Corbin were two of only 13 pitchers this year to reach 200 innings. Keuchel is not a big strikeout guy, but the lefty has good control and keeps the ball in the yard due to a ground-ball rate that perennially ranks among the league leaders. His groundball rate actually rose as high as 66.8% in 2017, which was the best in baseball, though it fell back to 53.7% this year. Keuchel's worm-burning tendencies pair with a sustained knack for limiting hard contact, helping him to limit home runs far better than the league-average pitcher. In 2018, he trailed only Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler in terms of generating weak contact, and his opponents' hard-contact rate was the fifth-lowest of any qualified starter (as measured by Fangraphs). That wasn't a fluke; Keuchel ranks among the best in the league in those regards on a yearly basis.

Keuchel may top out at four years but should command a premium average annual value despite coming with a qualifying offer. His suitors should be similar to those of Corbin.
5. Craig Kimbrel Cardinals. Four years, $70MM.
6. Yasmani Grandal Nationals. Four years, $64MM
7. Nathan Eovaldi Red Sox. Four years, $60MM
8. A.J. Pollock Giants. Four years, $60MM
9. J.A. Happ Angels. Three years, $48MM
10. Michael Brantley Braves. Three years, $45MM
11. Andrew McCutchen Cubs. Three years, $45MM
12. Yusei Kikuchi Padres. Six years, $42MM
13. Josh Donaldson Cardinals. One year, $20MM
14. Charlie Morton Phillies. Two years, $32MM
Morton, 35 in November, emerged as one of baseball's top dozen strikeout artists (among starters) over the past two years with the Astros. Among those with 300 innings over that span, Morton ranks sixth with a 95.4 mile per hour average fastball velocity. He's aged like a fine wine, adding velocity and changing his game from the ground-ball pitcher of his Pirates years. Morton, a family man with four children, wasn't sure as of April whether he'd pitch in 2019. More recently, he's said he will keep going, adding that he would like to re-sign with Houston. The Astros surprisingly chose not to issue a qualifying offer, which could be an indication that they're thinking of moving on from Morton for some reason. Morton will entertain many two- or even three-year offers on the open market, especially unencumbered by a QO. If he doesn't return to the Astros, Morton has cited proximity to his wife's family in Delaware as a major factor. That could put the Phillies and Nationals as frontrunners.
15. Wilson Ramos Astros. Three years, $36MM
With just a week left in a breakout 2016 contract season, Ramos tore his right ACL the same one he'd torn four years prior. Dreams of a monster four or five-year deal evaporated, and Ramos took a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee with the Rays. He rounded back into form this year, catching nearly 800 innings for the Rays and Phillies and leading all backstops with a 131 wRC+. The 31-year-old seems primed for a solid three-year deal, perhaps with a team that can give his knees a break with some time at designated hitter. The Astros, Red Sox, Athletics, Angels, Rockies, or Dodgers could work, as could a return to D.C.
16. Marwin Gonzalez Twins. Four years, $36MM
Gonzalez, 30 in March, has been a valuable super utility player throughout his seven-year Astros career. He's capable of playing all four infield positions, as well as left field, prompting agent Scott Boras to nickname him "Swiss G." A switch-hitter, Gonzalez has been every bit as productive as McCutchen and Brantley over the last two years, though much of his success is concentrated in a breakout 2017 season. Gonzalez was shockingly one of the dozen best hitters in baseball that year, but dropped back to a 104 wRC+ in 2018. He did at least manage a stronger 122 mark from June onward. Gonzalez has never reached 600 plate appearances in a season, nor has he tallied 700 innings at any one position. Whether it's as a super utility player or a regular, Gonzalez is an easy fit onto more than half the rosters in baseball. The Twins, Cubs, Angels, Brewers, Tigers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, and Rockies are among the many fits.
17. Jeurys Familia Twins. Three years, $33MM
18. Zach Britton Astros. Three years, $33MM
Britton might have been the best reliever in baseball upon the conclusion of his dominant 2016 season for the Orioles. The lefty had allowed just four runs in 67 innings, generating ground-balls at a historic 80 percent rate the highest mark since the stat began being tracked. However, a strained forearm cropped up in April 2017, which quickly recurred after he was activated from the DL in May. He missed two months after that and was also shut down early in September with a knee injury. Worse yet, Britton ruptured an Achilles tendon in December 2017, delaying his 2018 debut until June 12th. He joined the Yankees' elite bullpen in a July deal. Despite a 3.00 ERA over the past two seasons, Britton's 7.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 were unimpressive. However, he's still throwing over 95 miles per hour from the left side, and he's still getting ground-balls more than 70 percent of the time. Given Britton's three-year stretch of dominance as the Orioles' closer from 2014-16, his market should be robust even if he's yet to return to form. There might not be a better arm to dream on in the current class. The Astros, Cubs, Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers could be involved.
19. David Robertson Mets. Three years, $33MM
20. Hyun-Jin Ryu Dodgers. Three years, $33MM
21. Adam Ottavino Yankees. Three years, $30MM
22. Nelson Cruz Twins. Two years, $30MM
23. Jed Lowrie Athletics. Three years, $30MM
24. Andrew Miller Red Sox. Three years, $27MM
25. Joe Kelly Angels. Three years, $27MM
26. Kelvin Herrera Dodgers. One year, $8MM
27. Gio Gonzalez Athletics. Two years, $24MM
28. Anibal Sanchez Giants. Two years, $22MM
29. Matt Harvey Reds. Two years, $22MM
30. Trevor Cahill Blue Jays. Two years, $22MM
31. Daniel Murphy Angels. Two years, $20MM
32. Brian Dozier Nationals. One year, $10MM
33. DJ LeMahieu Tigers. Two years, $18MM
34. Joakim Soria Mets. Two years, $18MM
35. Mike Moustakas Royals. Two years, $16MM
36. Lance Lynn Rays. Two years, $16MM
37. Cody Allen Braves. Two years, $16MM
38. Nick Markakis Phillies. Two years, $16MM
39. Derek Holland Reds. Two years, $15MM
40. Bud Norris Indians. Two years, $12MM
41. Brad Brach Brewers. Two years, $12MM
42. Wade Miley Brewers. Two years, $12MM
43. Garrett Richards Tigers. Two years, $10MM
44. Jesse Chavez Cubs. Two years, $10MM
45. CC Sabathia Angels. One year, $8MM
46. Adam Jones Indians. One year, $8MM
47. Martin Maldonado Rockies. Two years, $8MM
Maldonado, 32, spent five years as a part-time catcher in Milwaukee before being traded to the Angels in December 2016. The Halos gave Maldonado regular playing time in 2017, resulting in an American League Gold Glove, but traded him to the Astros at this year's deadline. With Maldonado, the value is entirely in his defense. He's one of the game's better pitch framers and perhaps the very best at throwing out attempted thieves. He should continue to find semi-regular playing time.
48. Kurt Suzuki Brewers. Two years, $8MM
49. Ervin Santana Mariners. One year, $6MM
50. Drew Pomeranz Royals. One year, $6MM

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1. Bryce Harper Dodgers. Fourteen years, $420MM.
2. Manny Machado Phillies. Thirteen years, $390MM

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