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What investments would you wish you made now if USA and China go to war over Taiwan
Posted on 4/20/23 at 5:27 pm
Posted on 4/20/23 at 5:27 pm
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/29/23 at 8:04 pm
9
Posted on 4/20/23 at 5:36 pm to LSU_historian
Lead.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 5:49 pm to LSU_historian
SQQQ
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:02 pm to LSU_historian
quote:
I have a strong feeling that we will be supporting a proxy war with China in the next 5 years over Taiwan. What funds do you think would be winners and losers if this were to occur?
Anti-tank weapons and missile systems:
Raytheon Technologies Corporation (maker of Javelin missiles)
Lockheed Martin Corporation (maker of FGM-148 Javelin missiles)
Rafael Advanced Defense Systems (maker of Spike missiles)
Artillery and ammunition:
BAE Systems
General Dynamics Corporation
Rheinmetall AG
Denel Land Systems
Communications equipment:
Harris Corporation (now L3Harris Technologies)
Thales Group
Motorola Solutions
Drones and radar systems:
General Atomics Aeronautical Systems (maker of MQ-9 Reaper drones)
Turkish Aerospace Industries (maker of Bayraktar TB2 drones)
Lockheed Martin Corporation (maker of AN/TPQ-53 radar system)
Raytheon Technologies Corporation: RTX
Lockheed Martin Corporation: LMT
BAE Systems: BAESY (OTC), BA. (LSE)
General Dynamics Corporation: GD
Rheinmetall AG: RHM.DE (Frankfurt Stock Exchange)
Thales Group: HO.PA (Euronext Paris)
Harris Corporation (now L3Harris Technologies): LHX
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 6:03 pm
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:02 pm to LSU_historian
Raytheon
Halliburton
McDonnell Douglas
Halliburton
McDonnell Douglas
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:20 pm to I Love Bama
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/29/23 at 7:43 pm
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:52 pm to Bestbank Tiger
You bet on winning the war. Any other outcome and your investments will be practically worthless.
The German stock market was frozen in August 1944, preventing a crash, then was down about 78% in 1948.
Hell of a buying opportunity in '48.
The German stock market was frozen in August 1944, preventing a crash, then was down about 78% in 1948.
Hell of a buying opportunity in '48.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:55 pm to LSU_historian
Probably TXN since they make the chips for military purposes.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 6:56 pm to LSU_historian
The only way we could hope to protect Taiwan is through direct intervention and we would likely lose.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 7:04 pm to LSU_historian
Gold
Posted on 4/20/23 at 7:19 pm to LSU_historian
NOC, LMT.
But I'm pretty sure the answer to the last question is no winners, the entire world loses.
But I'm pretty sure the answer to the last question is no winners, the entire world loses.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 7:22 pm to tom
I agree. I don’t see how there’s a real win in the cards if China just strolls over and says “mine”. Certainly don’t want to go to war with China but I am extremely intrigued what our actual response would be if they invaded. I doubled my position in tsm towards the end of last year and it’s just along for the ride now.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 7:24 pm to Pendulum
Would be bullish for oil and other commodities too maybe? China mines so much of the world’s minerals that any sort of disruption would cause a massive price spike?
Posted on 4/20/23 at 7:39 pm to LSU_historian
Gold, ammo, real estate and enough liquid cash to live on for a while.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 8:00 pm to LSU_historian
quote:
What funds do you think would be winners and losers if this were to occur?
I can’t really imagine a single equity that ends higher in that scenario. The answer is to be short TSMC, or any other equity.
Posted on 4/20/23 at 8:20 pm to tom
quote:
The only way we could hope to protect Taiwan is through direct intervention and we would likely lose
Maybe
People forget Taiwan still exists because China couldn't take it by force when they tried
Just being the superior military power is no guarantee of victory. I think China could pulverize Taiwan but don't know if they could invade and subjugate Taiwan
Posted on 4/20/23 at 8:38 pm to molsusports
Might as well play both sides. You can buy multiple Chinese defense industry companies with special permission at IB.
This post was edited on 4/20/23 at 9:02 pm
Posted on 4/20/23 at 9:21 pm to rocksteady
quote:
agree. I don’t see how there’s a real win in the cards if China just strolls over and says “mine”. Certainly don’t want to go to war with China but I am extremely intrigued what our actual response would be if they invaded.
Though we had officially adopted the foreign policy of Containment, when China fell to Communism in 1949 we just totally let it happen.
I’d bet on a similar result this time.
Posted on 4/21/23 at 6:39 am to Diseasefreeforall
quote:
You can buy multiple Chinese defense industry companies with special permission at IB.
In this scenario, China would likely freeze those assets and you’d never get your money back.
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