re: The people that come out the woodwork on the downside of the crypto cycle...

Why does it have a 4 year cycle?

There is a supply mechanism called the "halving cycle." It's a real event where the reward paid to miners for creating a new block is cut in half reducing the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market. It's hard-coded into Bitcoin's protocol.

The idea is that new supply is lower, demand stays the same or rises, so the price goes up.

Notice what's missing: There is no demand mechanism -- only a supply tweak.

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I bet you think gold is $5000 an ounce because its used in electronics...

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I have maybe 3k in btc at the moment. I don’t know much to make an opinion. But if forced to pick which one would go to zero first between btc and gold, I would say the former. Gold has been valued for over 6,000 years. That’s older than anyone’s emotion and optimism for btc.

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Had I bought it at $13.71, I would have sold it for $50. Had I bought it at $25, I would have sold it at $100. I’m genuinely happy for the people who changed their lives by buying BTC. I was never, ever going to be one of them

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Most of us would have done the same. I have had a very small position since circa 2020 and will continue to let it ride. I’m not worried about losing all of it. If I had bought a more sizable position back then, I’m certain that I would have sold some once gains reached 3x-4x to recoup my initial investment and then gambled on the rest. I wish I had!!

I am also genuinely happy for those early adopters that bought and held. I hope they realize immense wealth. I hope they sell while they still have that option.

I often wonder exactly how Wiki’s story unfolded. He’s probably still posting here and we just don’t know it.

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shortsighted/uninformed.

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Mhmmm

When does your farsightedness say its going to zero?

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When does your farsightedness say its going to zero?

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No clue, but it continues to survive longer than I believed it would. Having said that, I have little doubt that it will get to zero eventually. Certainly before gold does.

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I bet you think gold is $5000 an ounce because its used in electronics...

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You might demonstrate another reason I lack confidence in bitcoin. Discipline investors would focus on why they think the value is there, and wouldn't get emotionally defensive when someone else doesn't share the same view on the topic. A lot of bitcoin proponents don't exactly convey value. You speak as if you're going to be the millionth person to win the bitcoin lottery and IMO it's emotion driven investing.

In the history of investments, nothing has ever SUSTAINED a growth pattern like what bitcoin has produced in it's 3-4 good years. Market saturation settles in and growth can only happen by offering new product lines or entering new markets. Bitcoin is a single product in a single vertical. It can't diversify, and cannot introduce new value outside of speculation. And don't take this as me saying bitcoin won't go up. Because undoubtedly it will. I am saying that the growth of the bitcoin will likely hit the market average, and I think that is what will kill it in the end. If you don't have wild swings in the price, it flat isn't appealing.

And to answer your questions, yes there is an industrial use for gold, but that isn't why it's priced where it is. I don't invest in gold outside of whatever might be in my indexes. I also don't particularly understand gold's valuation, but as someone else said, it at least has a LONG history of realistic growth and isn't entirely speculative.

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Everyone knows crypto has a 4 year cycle at this point... yet here you are with your arguments from 2016.

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Towards the end of this year it will spike because of elections and liquidity especially if QE starts and the fed drops interest rates but sure, 4 year bla bla. The 4 year guys will say it's coming out of winter early but the crypto market follows global liquidity as much as if not more than the halving.

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Towards the end of this year it will spike because of elections and liquidity especially if QE starts and the fed drops interest rates but sure, 4 year bla bla. The 4 year guys will say it's coming out of winter early but the crypto market follows global liquidity as much as if not more than the halving.

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I agree with you. The pattern is getting less pronounced and we’re still in a lower liquidity environment

When someone pivots to Ethereum, they're telling me that they know Bitcoin by itself doesn't explain enough. At least Ethereum tries to justify value with network usage, transaction fees, applications, and staking yields (however flawed). Bitcoin rejects all of that and just says scarcity plus belief equals value.