re: Spec Play - HGRAF

quote:

---

I have never owned a stock that has does so poorly while simultaneously good news is being reported on a daily basis.

---

It was a quarter a share a year and a half ago.

It is a long term hold, for sure. I think their revenue last year was under $50k, so hardly the stuff you would expect from a company with a $2B valuation.

At this point, thwy will have to start checking off some boxes if the stock is going to go mich higher. Specifically, making and selling graphene. How much can they sell and how soon can they scale up to make it?

quote:

---

If you were going to get in I would say now is that time before the circular comes out. The key is to see what law firm they hired in the US. If you see Latham & Watkins, Skadden, Kirkland & Ellis, Gibson Dunn, Sullivan & Cromwell, Davis Polk, Cooley, Fenwick, Wilson Sonsini, Vinson & Elkins or Baker Botts as their new US counsel then hold on as this creates instant credibility for them. If it's a law firm below thats slightly below tier well that not terrible but it doesn't give the same institutional credibility that they need. if its some unknown US law firm then I'm dumping ASAP.

---

It appears they are using 2 firms:

Greenberg Traurig LLP — U.S. corporate and securities counsel to HydroGraph for the redomicile.

Harter Secrest & Emery LLP — U.S. tax counsel to HydroGraph for the redomicile.

quote:

---

Greenberg Traurig LLP

---

I have some experience with this firm but in a completely different industry. In my industry, they are known as a leading regulatory firm with deep connections. Definitely not cheap. Definitely a get shite done firm.

There are post on X that say the domicile is not happening until early 2027 and that we should have all known that 2026 is not achievable.

Well, I sure didn’t know that and everything I read said it was obtainable before the EOY.

If someone reads that in the posted circular, please share it here. I have grass to cut.

quote:

---

I would not interpret that as evidence HydroGraph is presently for sale

---

I have been saying that this is a possibility - based on the fact that everything they have done seems to be setting the table for a sale.

The management team are scientists, materials science experts, and people with contacts within the government, not manufacturing experts.

They are lining everything up: products, customers gas contract, facilities lease, rdomicile, etc, but they haven't physically moved forward with the production.

All of that makes the company more valuable for a buyer, but doesn't make money.

I wonder if the redomicile isn't the last piece to get ready to sell.

I got kicked out of the Discord for suggesting this was a possibility...

quote:

---

Yes it explicitly says that 10/29 is the vote, 11/10 is the final hearing in Canadian court to approve, and that they expect the final completion date to be in early 2027.

---

At what point is it set in stone? Once the courts give final sign-off? If thats the case, and the taxes/fees are final, they can start moving forward, no? Announcing contracts, breaking ground, making deals with the DoE/DoW.

If I were forced to sell my shares in a buyout, it would save me the stress of determining my own exit strategies and the forever doubling guessing myself.

I just bought stock. If the company was bought out, would it transfer to the new company, or does everything need to be liquidated? Are there options?

that would depend on the terms. If it’s an all cash deal you just get the cash (and yes it’s a taxable event). If it’s all stock (the buyer is paying for the acquisition with their shares) you get the shares of the new company (non taxable event). Sometimes it’s a combination of both.

Remember that if the buyer issues new shares to make the deal that deal is dilutive to their current shareholders, and the major stockholders of HGRAF have to want shares of the buyer in lieu of cash.

If a deal is announced with a closing date, HGRAF shares would immediately trade up to the per share purchase price and stay there until the closing

At current sub $4 price a $20 per share deal would be a 400% premium , which…ain’t happening. If a buyer wants 100% of the shares of HGRAF they would first start building a large position at current market price (typically), then make a takeover bid somewhere north of that. Current plus 400% is not realistic

At 362MM shares a 20/share value would be a market cap over $7B. With current revenues at $50,000. If the plan is to sell out when ready to go to market with tonnage, they would have to have revenues of at least $2B for that to make any sense

Are we still ridin? It doesn’t feel like we’re ridin today.